您现在的位置:首页 > 资料下载 > 现在距离《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入调查中国能源领域的未来 前景已经过去10年。2007年,中国已经占据全球能源市场的前端和中心地位,但 那时中国离我们现在所看到的能源大国仍有一定的距离。今
现在距离《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入调查中国能源领域的未来 前景已经过去10年。2007年,中国已经占据全球能源市场的前端和中心地位,但 那时中国离我们现在所看到的能源大国仍有一定的距离。今

现在距离《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入调查中国能源领域的未来 前景已经过去10年。2007年,中国已经占据全球能源市场的前端和中心地位,但 那时中国离我们现在所看到的能源大国仍有一定的距离。今

资料来源: 国际能源署网站
文档格式: PDF文档
资料语言: 简体中文/外语
发布日期: 10-08
更新日期: 10-08
积分说明: 1点等于0.5元人民币
推荐信息:

会员下载(2点)  VIP下载(0点)  

简介
  • 本文件为PDF文档.现在距离《世界能源展望(WEO)》最近一次深入调查中国能源领域的未来 前景已经过去10年。2007年,中国已经占据全球能源市场的前端和中心地位,但 那时中国离我们现在所看到的能源大国仍有一定的距离。今
  • 本标准关键词:
  • China is in a period of development and transformation, and its energy prospects will be vastly different from those of the past. Over the years, people's descriptions of China's energy situation mainly emphasize how amazing the pace of China's development is, how successfully China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and how eager China is for all kinds of energy, mainly coal and oil. These views are still valid, but China is speeding up the transformation of its development mode to a service-based economy and a cleaner energy structure. Compared with the early energy intensive development, the impact of the new development direction on China and the world is equally important. Under the new policy scenario, China's energy demand growth rate has dropped to about 1% per year, less than one sixth of the country's annual average since 2000. This is a comprehensive effect brought about by the transformation of economic structure, the implementation of strong energy efficiency policies and population changes. By 2040, the growth level of total energy demand will be basically the same as that of 2008-2016. As the economy continues to grow rapidly, the average growth rate is 4.5% per year, equivalent to 3.4% improvement in energy intensity per year. According to our forecast, this is the fastest improvement rate in the world by 2040. By 2040, China's per capita energy consumption will also increase by a quarter, surpassing that of the EU around 2035. China's growing energy demand is increasingly dependent on renewable energy, natural gas and electricity, while coal demand has fallen. The growth of electricity and renewable energy demand is closely related to the diversification and cleaning of China's energy structure. By 2040, coal's share of total power generation will fall from two-thirds in 2016 to less than 40%. The growth of electricity and natural gas demand is closely related to the industrial and civil sectors, because these energy sources meet the energy demand of the light industry sector and meet the growing demand for air quality. China also applies biomass energy to industry, uses solar energy for heating and uses biofuels for transportation, thus increasing the direct use of renewable energy in the end consumer industry. By 2040, electricity will dominate China's end energy consumption, surpassing coal by the late 1920s and oil soon thereafter. By 2040, the demand for natural gas will rise to more than 600 billion cubic meters, making China the second largest natural gas market in the world after the United States, and the main source of global natural gas demand growth: during this period, the share of natural gas in China's main energy structure will rise from less than 6% to more than 12%. At the same time, with coal-fired power generation peaking and the structural decline in heavy industry coal and residential heating coal, China's coal demand will eventually be far below 2016 levels. Coal's share of China's primary energy mix will shrink by 20 percentage points to about 45% by 2040. China has become the largest oil consumer in the world, but it is no longer the main source of the growth of world oil demand. China is the main force in the oil market. The gap between the average daily demand of 11.5 million barrels and the average daily output of 4 million barrels in 2016 makes China the largest oil importer in the world. By 2030, the continued growth in transportation fuel demand means that China will replace the United States as the world's largest oil consumer. By then, China's oil demand growth will tend to moderate, and India is expected to become the main source of global oil consumption growth after 2025. By 2040, the growth of China's passenger car ownership will slow down, a quarter of the cars will be electric vehicles, and strict fuel economy indicators will limit the consumption of oil by other vehicles. China's passenger car fuel consumption is expected to decline after 2030.

    中国正处在发展变革时期,其能源前景将与过去有着天壤之别。多年来, 大家对中国能源状况的描述主要是强调中国的发展步伐有多么惊人、中国是如何 成功让亿万群众摆脱贫困,以及中国对各种能源,主要是煤炭和石油是多么的渴 求。这些观点现在仍然有效,但是中国正在加快发展方式的转变,向以服务为基 础的经济和更清洁的能源结构迈进。与早期的能源密集型发展相比,新的发展方 向对中国和世界带来的影响同样重要。 在新政策情景下,中国的能源需求增长速度下降到每年1%左右,不到该国 自2000年以来的年平均水平的六分之一。这是经济结构转变、强劲能源效率政 策实施和人口变化所带来的综合效应。到2040年,能源需求总量的增长水平将 与2008年至2016年这八年期间的增长水平基本持平。由于经济继续快速增长,平 均增长率为每年4.5%,相当于能源强度每年改善3.4%,据我们预测,这是截至 2040年世界范围内最快的改善速度。到2040年,中国人均能源消费量也将增长四 分之一,将在2035年左右超越欧盟。 中国日益增长的能源需求正越来越多地依赖可再生能源、天然气和电力;而 煤炭需求有所回落。电力和可再生能源需求的增长与中国能源结构的多样化和清 洁化密切相关。到2040年,煤炭在总发电量中所占份额将从2016年的三分之二降 到40%以下。电力和天然气需求的增长与工业和民用部门是密切相关的,因为这 些能源满足了轻工业部门的能源需求又契合了人们对空气质量日益增长的要求。 中国还将生物质应用到工业中,将太阳能用于供暖以及运用生物燃料运输,从 而增加终端消费行业对可再生能源的直接利用。到2040年,电力将在中国的终端 能源消费中占据主导地位,到21世纪20年代后期超过煤炭,此后不久将会超过石油。到2040年,天然气需求量将上升到6000亿立方米以上,使中国成为仅次于美 国的全球第二大天然气市场,也是全球天然气需求增长的最主要来源:在此期 间,天然气在中国主要能源结构中的份额将从不到6%上升至12%以上。与此同 时,随着燃煤发电的发电量达到峰值,以及重工业用煤和居民供热用煤出现结构 性下滑,中国的煤炭需求最终将远低于2016年的水平。煤炭在中国一次能源结构 中的份额将缩减20个百分点,到2040年约为45%。 中国成为世界上最大的石油消费国,但不再是世界石油需求增长的最主要来 源。中国是石油市场的主力军,2016年1150万桶的日均需求量和400万桶的日均 产量之间的差距,使中国成为世界上最大的石油进口国。到2030年,运输燃料需 求的持续增长意味着中国将取代美国成为世界上最大的石油消费国。到那时,中 国的石油需求增长将趋于平缓,预计到2025年以后,印度将成为全球石油消费增 长的主要来源。到2040年,中国的乘用车保有量的增长将减缓,四分之一的汽车 将是电动车,严格的燃油经济性指标将限制其他车辆对油品的消费。预计中国的 乘用车油耗将在2030年后下滑。