Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general agreed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291 * * * (n = 48) and 0. 6431 * * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg,0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.