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欧亚煤炭市场报告2008-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2008-1(2008)

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世界市场所有数据都是初步的。然而,所描述的一般趋势是正确的。 国际市场煤炭2007年,全球硬煤产量再次增长约250亿吨,从53亿吨增至56亿吨。全球海运煤炭市场再次扩大43百万吨(+ 5,5%),达到820百万吨。动力煤(见表2))太平洋市场供应太平洋市场由中国主导,出口减少了8绪t 51绪t但同时进口增加了11绪t 44绪。额外的环太平洋地区的需求是由印度尼西亚(+ 18绪t)和越南(+ 4绪t)南非增加了供应进入亚洲市场,也就是印度。b)大西洋市场2007年大西洋地区的供给需求较低。印度尼西亚和南非减少了对欧洲的出口。进口蒸汽煤的损失部分被进口焦煤所取代。在供应方面,哥伦比亚、俄罗斯和美国增加了出口,波兰和南非出口减少。印尼向大西洋市场的煤炭出口量有所下降。2. 焦煤供应(见表3)根据国际钢铁协会(IISI)的数据,粗钢产量在2007年达到1343.5万吨。中国再次成为焦煤生产的主要驱动力,但许多其他国家也对增长做出了贡献。3.价格演变(见表1)a)动力煤价格南非动力煤(6000 kcal/kg NAR)到岸价ARA现货价格在上半年保持稳定。从2007年8月开始,出现了急剧增长。蒸汽煤行业和出口基础设施的低投资活动,已导致煤炭供应链许多环节出现瓶颈,这种情况将在2008/2009年持续下去。b)焦煤和焦炭的价格半软焦煤和PCI-coal的价格将以同样的速度上涨,当然会比动力煤的价格要高。焦炭价格接近新的纪录水平,超过400美元/吨离岸价中国。3所示。运价运价仍处于极高水平。尽管散货船数量大幅增加,而且几乎没有报废,但货运价格仍然居高不下。Longer 距离 每 ton, 滞期费情形 和 更高 的 燃油 价格 将 运费 加 起来

WORLD MARKET

All figures are preliminary. Nevertheless, the general tendencies described are correct.

 

 World Market Coal

In 2007, world hard coal production went up again by approximately 250 Mio t from 5.3 bn t to 5.6 bn t.

 The world seaborne coal market expanded again by 43 Mio t (+ 5,5 %), reaching 820 Mio t. The  amount of green border trade was stable, at around 80 Mio t.  1. Steam Coal (see table 2)  a) Pacific Market supply The Pacific market was dominated by China, which reduced its exports by 8 Mio t to 51 Mio t but at  the same time increased its imports by 11 Mio t to 44 Mio t. Additional demand in the Pacific rim was  covered by Indonesia (+ 18 Mio t) and Vietnam (+ 4 Mio t). South Africa increased its supply into the  Asian market, namely India.

b) Atlantic Market supply Demand in the Atlantic area was lower in 2007. Indonesia and South Africa reduced their exports to  Europe. Losses in steam coal imports were partly replaced by coking coal imports.  On the supply, side Columbia, Russia and the USA increased their exports, Poland and South Africa  exported less. Indonesian coal exports into the Atlantic market were lower.

2. Coking coal supply (see Table 3)  According to the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), crude steel production reached 1,343.5  mmt in 2007. China was again the main driver in coking coal production, but many other countries  contributed to the growth. 3. Price evolution (see Table 1)  a) Steam Coal Prices The cif ARA spot price for South African steam coal (6000 kcal/kg NAR) remained stable in the first  half of the year. From August 2007 onwards, a steep increase occurred. The low investment activities in the steam coal sector as well as in exports infrastructure has led to  bottlenecks in many parts of the coal supply chain, which will last on in 2008/2009. We had to expect  a very volatile market in these years.b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Semi-soft coking coal and PCI-coal prices will rise at the same rate and will of course be higher-priced  than steam coal.  Coke prices are close to new record levels, over 400 US$/t fob China.  3. Freight rates The freight rates are still at extremely high levels. Despite big increases in the bulk-carrier fleet and  nearly no scrapping, the prices for freight remained high. Longer distances per ton, demurrage situations and higher fuel-prices pushed the freight rates up.

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