欧亚煤炭市场报告2011-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2012-2(2012)

世界煤炭市场发展去年(2011年)全球硬煤产量达到6.960万吨，其中动力煤6.050吨，焦煤910吨。全球海运硬煤贸易达到978吨，其中蒸汽煤739吨，炼焦煤239吨。2012年上半年，海运硬煤贸易总量为515吨，其中蒸汽煤380吨，焦煤135吨。这六个月的数字当然是初步的。去年的初步数据尤其不准确，主要是因为来自印度尼西亚和世界其他地区的无效数据。一些吨数被计算两次，非法开采的煤炭被部分计算在合法开采和出售的煤炭之下。运价的压力仍在继续，来自欧洲、美国和中国的煤炭需求并不大，由于经济停滞，中国的煤炭使用量略有下降。还有一些情况是在ARA港口交货比在Richards Bay便宜。这种情况非常不健康，许多船主破产了。只要交易者通过谈判达成长期合约，这种情况就不会那么严重。中国焦炭的价格也在下降，Metcoal的价格在2011年小幅上涨后预计也会下降。碳价碳价并没有显示出任何真正的发展，反映了一种不符合欧盟委员会(European Commission)要求的市场行为。现在的问题是，对煤炭来说，是保持较低的欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)价格更好，还是用(更高的)碳排放税来取代欧盟的碳排放交易体系。在EURACOAL看来，改变EUETS的工作方式是非法的，因为欧盟的ETS只有在达成国际协议后才能修改，而事实并非如此。欧洲煤炭市场欧盟2012年上半年硬煤产量略有增加，褐煤产量也有所增加。进口方面有很大的增长，这是由于国际煤炭价格下降。在英国，2012年上半年发电站的煤炭供应比2011年上半年增加了36%，而天然气供应下降了33%。由于英国电力系统的高度灵活性，煤炭价格低，天然气价格高，碳排放价格低，煤炭在发电中所占的份额达到41%。然而，从月度统计数据来看，煤炭投入具有很强的季节性，但从绝对数量来看，煤炭占比高于天然气占比。由于本土煤炭产量下降了9%，进口增加了51%，但在这里，供应结构又经历了季节性变化。主要供应国为俄罗斯(29%)、哥伦比亚(18%)和美国(15%)。德国2012年前两个季度的硬煤总消费量略有增加，达到29.4万吨/年。由于相对较低的硬煤价格和较低的二氧化碳价格，用硬煤发电增加了8%，而炼焦煤的消耗由于钢铁工业的衰退下降了6%。普罗斯普焦煤厂被卖给了阿塞洛-米塔尔。在硬煤消费总量中，国产煤占650万吨，比前一年减少了近7%，因为国产煤的生产必须遵循关闭计划的决定。进口与上年持平。德国硬煤部门目前雇用约19.300人，包括兼职工人和培训生。在波兰，在下西里西亚盆地和上西里西亚盆地以及卢布林盆地的143个地点发现了硬煤矿床，其中48个正在开采，占煤炭储量的168.5亿吨。然而，煤炭产量在过去10年里大幅下降，主要原因是对新矿的投资不足。今天,硬煤炭行业雇佣了114200人,Kompania Węglowa 15矿山最大的公司。2012年2月，西班牙首相拉霍伊(Rajoy)领导的保守派政府应竞争事务专员阿尔穆尼亚(Almunia)的要求，向欧盟委员会提交了一份矿山关闭计划。该计划显示，2012年补贴减少了10%。然而，政府在4月份的预算中宣布削减63%，将2012年的煤炭补贴从2011年的301欧元削减至1.11亿欧元。作为回应，矿工们开始了一场无限期的罢工。6月18日，煤矿所在的9个省份举行了大罢工和抗议活动。碳联盟和执政党的政客们正在寻求暂时的解决方案，以避免这些地区更高的失业率。德国2012年上半年的一次能源消费中，可再生能源占比显著上升(+ 9.4%)，核能占比下降幅度更大(- 18.3%)。褐煤的比重增加了6.7%。在波兰，已查明约150个褐煤矿床，代表140亿吨的可开采储量。在捷克共和国，煤炭和褐煤的产量在过去几年中一直保持稳定。在希腊，政府的2010年能源政策仍然有效:到2020年，不使用核能，不使用CCS和40%的可再生电力。保加利亚2020年能源战略的目标是保障供应安全，实现该国的可再生能源目标，提高能源效率，在保护消费者的同时发展有竞争力的能源市场。匈牙利经济形势依然严峻，2012年第一季度经济出现收缩，对电力消费产生了影响，但仍低于危机前水平。在斯洛文尼亚，褐煤在发电方面发挥并将继续发挥重要作用:近三分之一的电力来自褐煤，另外三分之一来自水电，最后三分之一来自核能。斯洛伐克报告说，由于经济危机，失业率继续上升。尽管如此，由于强劲的经济活动，GDP趋势仍然相当积极(+ 4.72%)。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Last year’s (2011) global hard coal production reached 6.960 Mt of which 6.050 Mt  was steam coal and 910 Mt coking coal. Global seaborne hard coal trade reached  978 Mt, of which 739 Mt was steam coal and 239 Mt coking coal. In the first half of  2012, total seaborne hard coal trade amounted to 515 Mt, of which 380 Mt was  steam coal and 135 Mt coking coal. These six-month figures are of course  preliminary. Last year’s preliminary figures were particularly inexact, due mainly to  non-valid data from Indonesia and other parts of the world. Some tonnages were  counted twice, and illegally mined coal was partly counted under legally mined and  sold coal.  FREIGHT RATES The pressure on freight rates is still on-going, there is no big coal demand from Europe  and the USA and also China were slightly decreasing their coal use due to economic  stagnation. There were again situations where delivered coal at ARA ports was cheaper than the price at Richards Bay. This situation is very unhealthy and many  ship owners went bankrupt. This situation was not as dramatic as long as traders  negotiated long-term contracts. The price for Chinese coke was going down as well  and Metcoal prices are also expected to decrease after a slight increase in 2011. CARBON PRICES The carbon price does not show any real development, reflecting a market  behaviour which does not satisfy the European Commission. The question now is, if it  would be better for coal to keep the low EU ETS price or to replace EU ETS by a  (higher) carbon tax. In the opinion of EURACOAL it would be illegal to change the  working of the EUETS, as the EU ETS can only then be modified, when an international  agreement is reached, which is not the case. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET EU hard coal production in the first half of 2012 slightly increased, as well as lignite  output. A big increase was recorded on the import side, which is due to decreasing  international coal prices. HARD COAL In the United Kingdom, coal supply to power stations in the first half of 2012 increased  by 36 % compared to the first half of 2011, whereas gas fell by 33 %. Due to the very  high flexibility of the UK power system, low coal prices, high gas prices and also low  carbon prices, the share of coal in power generation totalled 41 %. Nevertheless,  coal input is very seasonal when looking at monthly statistics but in absolute terms,  coal share increased against gas share. As indigenous coal production decreased  by 9 %, imports rose by 51 % but here again, the supply structure underwent seasonal  variations. Major suppliers were Russia (29 %), Colombia (18 %) and the USA (15 %). Total German hard coal consumption in the first two quarters 2012 slightly increased  to 29.4 Mtce. Power generation from hard coal increased by 8 % due to relatively  low hard coal prices and low CO2 prices but coking coal consumption fell by 6 %  due to the declining steel industry. The coking coal plant Prosper was sold to Arcelor  Mittal. Of the total hard coal consumption, the share of domestic coal represented  6.5 Mtce, almost 7 % less than in the previous year as indigenous coal production has  to follow the closure plan decisions. Imports stayed at the same level as the previous  year. The German hard coal sector employs currently some 19.300 persons, including  part time workers and trainees.  In Poland, hard coal deposits are found in the lower and the upper Silesian basins  and in the Lublin basin at 143 sites of which 48 are being exploited, accounting for  16.85 billion tonnes of coal reserves. Nevertheless coal production strongly declined  during the last ten years, mainly due to a lack of investment in new mines. Today, the  hard coal industry employs 114,200 people, Kompania Węglowa being the biggest  company with 15 mines. In February 2012 the Spanish conservative Government of Prime Minister Rajoy submitted a mine closure plan to the Commission, as requested by the Competition  Commissioner, Mr. Almunia. This plan showed subsidies reduced by 10% in 2012.  However, in the Government’s April budget, a reduction of 63% was announced,  reducing coal subsidies to €111 million for 2012, from the €301 paid in 2011. In  response, miners began an indefinite strike. On 18 June, there was a general strike  and protests in the nine provinces where coal is mined. Carbunin and politicians  from the ruling party are seeking for temporary solutions to avoid even higher  unemployment rates in these regions.LIGNITE Germany’s primary energy consumption for the first half of 2012 showed an  important increase in the renewables share (+ 9.4 %) and an even more important  decrease in the share of nuclear (- 18.3 %). The share of lignite increased by 6.7 %. In Poland, some 150 lignite deposits have been identified representing 14 billion  tonnes of mineable reserves. In the Czech Republic, coal and lignite production has stayed stable over the last  years. In Greece the Government’s 2010 energy policy remains in place: no nuclear, no  CCS and 40% renewable electricity by 2020. The Bulgarian energy strategy for 2020 aims to guarantee security of supply, to attain  the country’s renewables targets, to increase energy efficiency and to develop a  competitive energy market whilst protecting consumers. Hungary is still facing a difficult economic situation and the economy contracted in  the first quarter of 2012 which had an impact on power consumption, this being still  lower than before the crisis. In Slovenia, lignite plays and will continue to play an important role for power  generation: almost one third of electricity is produced from lignite, another third from  hydro and the final third from nuclear. Slovakia reports a high unemployment rate which continues to rise due to the  economic crisis. GDP trends are nevertheless quite positive (+ 4.72%) due to strong  economic activity.