欧亚煤炭市场报告2009-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2009-2(2009)

世界市场2009年第一季度，世界硬煤市场多年来首次下降8%左右。世界煤炭贸易然而，市场表现不同:大西洋蒸汽煤市场减少了出口，太平洋市场略有增加。太平洋市场仅增加了2.2公吨，澳大利亚是唯一的出口国，增加了销售额(+ 6.7公吨)。中国(‐2.6 Mt)和印度尼西亚(‐2.0 Mt)承受了主要的下降。在大西洋市场上，只有南非(+ 1.3 Mt)和俄罗斯(+ 0.4 Mt)能够增加出口。整个大西洋市场缩减了2.8公吨。焦煤供应(见表3)焦煤市场感受到了经济危机的压力，2009年第一季度下降了30%。中国成为焦煤的净进口国。澳大利亚的出口量比2008年第一季度减少了8.1吨，美国和加拿大的出口量也有所下降。2004年全年焦煤市场总量预计将减少40至50吨左右。价格演化(见表1)蒸汽煤炭价格动力煤价格fob南非目前约60美元/ t,即使在大西洋市场需求保持weak.b)炼焦煤炼焦煤和焦炭价格合同价格也达到历史高峰在2008年夏天现在回到正常和协商的价格预计将低2009/2010。硬焦煤目前的合同价格为120‐125美元/t，半软焦煤合同价格为80‐90美元/t，低挥发性PCI煤合同价格为75‐80美元/t。中国出现了一种特殊的情况，它第一次成为净进口国。原因在于，对于港口附近的钢铁和电力行业而言，进口煤炭更便宜，因为目前国际炼焦煤价格低于中国炼焦煤价格。中国的可乐市场完全崩溃了;2009年4月，中国出口的焦炭只有约2万吨。在2008年夏季可乐价格非常高之后，2008年冬季可乐价格暴跌，但目前又在缓慢回升。2009年3月，焦炭的fob中国价格为420美元/吨5。运费率2008年夏季极高的理查兹湾—鹿特丹运费率在12月降至5美元/吨，目前正在协商17至18美元/吨。由于全球航运能力不断增强，价格预计将保持低位。尽管如此，五月初，理查兹贝阿拉的运价在今年早些时候的极低水平之上开始上涨。

WORLD MARKET For the first time in many years, the World market for hard coal fell by some 8 % during the first quarter 2009.   WORLD COAL TRADE 1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) Nevertheless, markets behaved differently: whilst the Atlantic steam coal market decreased exports, the Pacific market increased slightly.   b) Pacific Market The Pacific market increased by only 2.2 Mt with Australia being the only exporter, increasing sales (+ 6.7 Mt). China (‐  2.6 Mt) and Indonesia (‐  2.0 Mt) bore the main decreases. b) Atlantic Market supply On the Atlantic market, only South Africa (+ 1.3 Mt) and Russia (+ 0.4 Mt) could increase exports. The total Atlantic market shrunk by 2.8 Mt.  2. COKING COAL SUPPLY (see Table 3) The coking coal market felt the burden of the economic crisis and dropped by 30 % during the first quarter 2009. China became a net importer for coking coal. Australia exported 8.1 Mt less than during the first quarter 2008 and the US and Canada also recorded an export decrease. The total coking coal market is expected to decrease by some 40 to 50 Mt for the entire year 2009.4. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices The steam coal prices fob South Africa are currently around 60 US$/t, even though the demand on the Atlantic market stays weak.b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Contract prices for coking coal which also reached historic peaks during the 2008 summer are now coming back to normal and the negotiated prices for 2009/2010 are expected to be low. Hard coking coal is currently contracted at 120‐125 US$/t, semi‐soft coking coal at 80‐ 90 US$/t and low‐volatile PCI coal at 75‐80 US$/t.   A special situation was observed in China, who became for the first time a net importer. The reason was that for the steel and electricity industries, located near the harbours, it was cheaper to import coal because international coking coal prices are currently lower than Chinese coking coal prices. The Chinese coke market totally collapsed; in April 2009 there were only some 20.000 t of coke exported. After the very high coke prices in summer 2008 the prices collapsed in winter 2008 but are currently again picking up slowly. In March 2009 the coke price fob‐China was 420 US$/t.5. FREIGHT RATES The extremely high freight rates Richards Bay‐Rotterdam during the 2008 summer came down to 5 US$/t in December and are currently being negotiated at 17 to 18 US$/t. Due to the increasing shipping capacities worldwide, prices are expected to stay low. At the beginning of May, the freight rates Richards Bay–ARA nevertheless started to increase above the very low levels seen earlier in the year.