欧亚煤炭市场报告2006-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2006-3(2006)

下面的评论和数字只适用于海运的世界煤炭市场。他们是初步的。今年上半年，全球海运煤炭市场增长了7百万公吨，仅增长了2%。增长率很可能不会代表全年。我们预计全年将有4%的强劲增长。动力煤(见表2)动力煤市场分为太平洋市场和大西洋市场。这两个市场之间的吨位交换是次要的，数量约占7 - 8%的海上贸易的蒸汽煤。进入大西洋市场的主要出口国是印度尼西亚(来自太平洋地区)。)太平洋市场供应印尼和越南正在推动他们的出口,而中国出口减少4绪t和增加进口了近5绪t(动力煤和无烟煤),这意味着其他出口商必须填补一个空白9绪t b)大西洋市场供应大西洋供应市场也看到一个令人失望的进化在2006年的前六个月。哥伦比亚和南非远远落后于它们的出口目标。我们预计下半年这些国家的出口将会更加强劲。c)焦煤供应(见表3)在今年上半年，焦煤海运出口总量下降了700万吨。焦煤市场充其量将达到2005年的水平，但很可能在2006年下降。中国减少了从海运世界市场进口的焦煤。在一定程度上，消费场所仍有大量焦煤库存，必须将其降至正常水平。可口可乐的市场在2006年开始复苏。d)价格演变(见表1)动力煤南非的焦煤价格仍在每吨48至52美元之间浮动。哥伦比亚的罢工对价格的影响有限。天然气价格进一步上涨，并在上半年扩大了国际动力煤在欧洲国家的竞争优势。焦煤/焦炭焦煤在高水平下稳定，为硬焦煤。7月/ 8月，焦炭的fob中国价格略有上涨，但随后又回落至150美元/吨的fob中国价格，其中含12%，5%的灰焦。运费运费率在年中之前一直比较稳定。从理查兹湾到鹿特丹的披风型散货船的基准运费在上半年浮动在10 - 15美元/吨之间。从那以后，运费上涨，目前(11/06)为每吨24美元。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary. World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased by 7 Mio t or only 2 % in the first half year.  The growth rate most probably will not be representative for the whole year. We expect a stronger growth of 4 % for the total year. Steam Coal (see table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is Indonesia (from the Pacific side). a) Pacific Market supply Indonesia and Vietnam are pushing their exports while China is reducing its exports  by 4 Mio t and increasing its imports by nearly 5 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite),  that means that the other exporters have to fill a gap of 9 Mio t. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply market also saw a disappointing evolution in the first six months of 2006. Columbia and South Africa were well behind their export targets. In the second half year we expect stronger exports from these countries. c) Coking coal supply (see table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports were shrinking in the first half of the year by 7 Mio t. At best the coking coal market will reach the level of 2005, but most probably will decrease in 2006. China reduced its coking coal imports from the seaborne World Market. Partly still  high stocks of coking coal at the consumer sites have to be reduced to normal levels. The market for coke is picking up in 2006. China is reporting stronger exports because of good availability.d) Price evolution (see table 1) Steam coal The fob-price for South African coal is still floating between 48 - 52 US$/t. The strike in Columbia had only a limited influence on prices. The prices of gas increased further and were enlarging the competitive advantage of international steam coal in the first half year in the European countries.Coking coal / Coke Coking coal was stable at high levels for hard-coking coal. The coke price fob – China increased slightly in July / August but came down again to 150 US$ /t fob China for coal with 12,5% ash-coke. Freight The freight rates were relatively stable until the middle of the year. The benchmark freight rates for cape-sized bulk carrier from Richards Bay to Rotterdam were floating  in a range between 10 – 15 US$/t in the first half year. Since then, freight rates increased and are presently (11/06) standing at 24 US$ / t.