欧亚煤炭市场报告2007-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2007-1(2007)

下面的评论和数字只适用于海运的世界煤炭市场。他们是初步的。2006年，全球海运煤炭市场总量增加了35亿吨，增幅达5%。由于对印度尼西亚和越南的估计相当低，这一数字还将进一步增长。动力煤(见表2)动力煤市场分为太平洋市场和大西洋市场。这两个市场之间的吨位交换是次要的，数量约占7 - 8%的海上贸易的蒸汽煤。进入大西洋市场的主要出口国是印度尼西亚(来自太平洋地区)。印度尼西亚和越南正在推动他们的出口。中国减少了800万吨的出口，增加了近1500万吨的进口(蒸汽煤和无烟煤)，这意味着其他出口国必须填补2300万吨的缺口。这主要是由印度尼西亚和越南完成的。在2006年上半年，大西洋供应市场也经历了令人失望的演变，但在下半年可能会恢复。(三)炼焦煤供应(见表3)2006年海运炼焦煤出口总量减少400万吨。中国进一步减少从海运世界市场进口炼焦煤。在一定程度上，仍处于高位的炼焦煤库存必须降至正常水平，以压低需求。可口可乐的市场在2006年开始复苏。中国报告称，由于供应良好，中国出口更强劲，因此出口近1500万吨煤(见表1)。哥伦比亚的罢工对价格的影响有限。天然气价格进一步上涨，扩大了欧洲国家国际动力煤的竞争优势。焦煤/焦炭焦煤全年稳定在高水平。中国的焦炭离岸价在7月/ 8月略有上升，但在年底下降了17-20美元/吨，达到160-170美元/吨的离岸价(含12%，5%的焦炭)。运费运费率在年中之前一直比较稳定。从理查兹湾到鹿特丹的披风型散货船的基准运费在上半年浮动在10 - 15美元/吨之间。从那以后，运费上涨，目前处于20-24美元/吨的高水平。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary.  World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased by 35 Mio t or 5 % in 2006. The figures will  grow further, as the estimates for Indonesia and Vietnam are rather low.  Steam Coal (see Table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents  about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is Indonesia (from the Pacific side).  a) Pacific Market supply Indonesia and Vietnam are pushing their exports. China reduced its exports by 8 Mio  t and increased its imports by nearly 15 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite), that means  that the other exporters have to fill the gap of 23 Mio t. That has mainly been done by  Indonesia and Vietnam.  b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply market also saw a disappointing evolution in the first six months  of 2006 but could make up tonnage in the second half of the year.  c) Coking coal supply (see Table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports were decreasing in 2006 by 4 Mio t.  China reduced its coking coal imports from the seaborne World Market further. Partially still high stocks of coking coal at the consumer sites have to be reduced to normal levels pushing down demand.  The market for coke is picking up in 2006. China is reporting stronger exports because of good availability and therefore exported nearly 15 Mio t.  d) Price evolution (see Table 1)  Steam coal  The fob-price for South African coal is still floating between 48 - 52 US$/t. The strike  in Columbia had only a limited influence on prices. The prices of gas increased further and were enlarging the competitive advantage of international steam coal in the  European countries. Coking coal / Coke  Coking coal was stable at high levels for hard-coking coal throughout the year. The  coke price fob – China increased slightly in July / August but decreased by 17-20  US$/t at the end of the year to reach 160-170 US$ /t fob-China (coal with 12,5% ashcoke).  Freight  The freight rates were relatively stable until the middle of the year. The benchmark  freight rates for cape-sized bulk carriers from Richards Bay to Rotterdam were floating in a range between 10 – 15 US$/t in the first half year. Since then, freight rates  increased and are currently at high levels between 20-24 US$/t.