欧亚煤炭市场报告2008-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2008-3(2008)

世界市场的一些数据是初步的。然而，所描述的一般趋势是正确的。世界海运煤炭市场增加了3百万桶。与2007年前三季度相比。2008年1-9月，钢铁行业运行良好，欧洲蒸汽煤需求疲软，亚洲稳定。1。动力煤(见表2)a)太平洋市场供应2008年第一季度供方供应疲软。澳大利亚的动力煤出口将增加10个工厂。由于大雨，印尼未能实现其出口目标。越南停止向中国非法出口煤炭。这笔交易的金额估计为6-8百万美元。t / a。在需求方面，日本和韩国的煤炭需求高于2007年。亚洲的供需平衡，价格正在下跌。b)大西洋市场供给大西洋供给侧也在减少。南非、波兰、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯减少了煤炭出口，哥伦比亚和美国增加了煤炭出口。欧洲的需求面很弱，许多国家的煤炭需求量比2007年还要少。2. 焦煤供应(见表3)焦煤供应情况有所改善。澳大利亚的生产受到大规模洪水、港口配额和春季推迟铁路改善的严重影响，但现在这些问题都得到了解决。澳大利亚的出口达到了2007年1-9月的水平。乌克兰和印度对来自世界市场的更多焦煤需求强劲。美国和加拿大出口了更多的食煤。2008年1-9月，全球钢铁需求也保持在高位，但第四季度有所减弱。3.价格演变(见表1)a)动力煤价格南非动力煤(6000 kcal/kg NAR)的到岸价ARA现货价格在今年第一季度出现了爆炸性增长。从2007年8月开始，出现了急剧增长。自2008年9月以来，房价跌得非常厉害。金融危机和全球经济增速的下降，使商品价格呈现下降趋势。b)炼焦煤和焦炭的价格半软炼焦煤和PCI-coal的价格以同样的速度上涨，当然比动力煤的价格要高得多。焦炭价格(含灰分12.5%)是在钢铁行业减产的背景下大幅下降的。离岸价仍然很高，但已从去年11月的近800美元/吨降至450美元/吨。运费率运费率处于极高的水平。尽管散货船数量大幅增加，而且几乎没有报废，但货运价格仍然居高不下。每吨运输距离的增加、滞期费的增加以及燃料价格的上涨都推高了运费。现在一切都结束了。11月份，好望角型货轮的理查兹湾基准运费从50美元/吨降至6.50美元/吨。

WORLD MARKET Some figures are preliminary. Nevertheless, the general tendencies described are correct.  World Market Coal The world seaborne coal market increased by 3 Mio. t compared to the first three quarters 2007.  In the period 1-9 2008 the steel industry was running well, steam coal demand in Europe was weak, in  Asia stable.  1. Steam Coal (see table 2)  a) Pacific Market supply The supply side was weak in the first quarter of 2008. Australia could increase its steam coal exports  by 10 mill. t, Indonesia failed to achieve its export targets because of heavy rainfalls. Vietnam stopped  the illegal export of coal to China. The amount of this trade is estimated at 6-8 Mio. t/a.  On the demand side, Japan and South Korea were demanding more coal than in 2007. Supply and  demand are balanced in Asia and prices are falling.  b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply side is also decreasing. South Africa, Poland, Venezuela and Russia exported less  coal – Colombia and the USA increased their exports.  The demand side in Europe is weak and in many countries less coal is being demanded than in 2007. 2. Coking coal supply (see Table 3)  The situation for coking coal has improved. Australian production was heavily affected by massive  flooding, port quotas and delayed rail improvements in spring time but now succeeded in overcoming  these problems.  The Australian exports reached the same level as in 1-9 2007. Ukraine and India were showing strong  demand for additional coking coal from the world market. The USA and Canada exported more cooking coal.  The worldwide steel demand also stayed high in 1-9 2008, but the fourth quarter is being weaker. 3. Price evolution (see Table 1)  a) Steam Coal Prices The cif ARA spot price for South African steam coal (6000 kcal/kg NAR) exploded in the first quarter  of the year. From August 2007 onwards, a steep increase occurred. Since September 2008, prices are  falling extremely down. The financial crisis and a worldwide reduction of growth rate had turned the commodity products to a  downward trend.  b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Semi-soft coking coal and PCI-coal prices have risen at the same rate and will of course be much  higher-priced than steam coal.  Coke prices (12.5% ash content) are on the background of production cuts in the steel industry in a  steep fall. Fob prices are still high, but fell from almost 800 US$/t to 450 US$/t in November. 3. Freight rates The freight rates were at extremely high levels. Despite big increases in the bulk-carrier fleet and  nearly no scrapping, the prices for freight remained high. Longer distances per ton, demurrage situations and higher fuel-prices pushed the freight rates up.  This has come to an end now. The Richards Bay benchmark freight rate for capesize vessels fell from  50 US$/t to 6.50 US$/t in November.