欧亚煤炭市场报告2011-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2011-1(2011)

虽然2010年的数据还只是初步的，但下面描述的总体趋势是准确的。1990年至2010年间，全球硬煤产量增长了85%，接近6.5亿吨，其中5.7亿吨是蒸汽煤，0.8亿吨是焦煤。过去10年，煤炭使用量的增长一直由中国主导。世界煤炭贸易海运硬煤贸易初步数据显示，从2000年到2010年增长了84%，2010年达到971吨(蒸汽煤726吨，焦煤245吨，分别同比增长9%和25%)。日本再次成为全球最大的煤炭进口国，进口量约为185吨。2010年，中国的进口量再次飙升至166吨，同比增长31%，成为全球第二大煤炭进口国，对煤炭的需求显然没有限制。韩国和台湾紧随其后，分别为119公吨和63公吨。澳大利亚301吨,主要出口国无烟煤(33%的市场份额),紧随其后的是印尼的出口激增57吨到290吨(+ 24%)和俄罗斯90吨。蒸汽煤炭海运动力煤贸易增长了62吨与前一年相比,从太平洋市场需求的主要推动力。欧洲和美国仍然受到经济危机的影响，它们的蒸汽煤需求仍然很低。太平洋市场的主要供应商是印度尼西亚(+60公吨)和南非(+13公吨)，以及大西洋市场的哥伦比亚(+6公吨)。南非向大西洋市场的出口量减少了9吨，俄罗斯减少了5吨，两者都倾向于向亚洲市场出口。他们在欧洲市场留下的供应缺口，很大程度上是由哥伦比亚的煤炭填补的。自2007年以来，焦煤市场首次恢复强劲增长，产量增加了49吨，主要的市场参与者是澳大利亚(增加24吨)和美国(增加17吨)。中国对海运焦煤的需求大幅下降，因为中国依赖蒙古通过铁路运输的焦煤。2010年全球粗钢产量为1.4亿吨，较2009年增长15%，大多数地区的产量都有所增加。从1990年到2008年夏季达到高峰之前，向NW欧洲出口的硬煤价格在很长一段时间里有小幅但稳定的增长。即使在随后的暴跌之后，价格也普遍高于前几年。2011年初的价格约为130美元/吨，部分原因是昆士兰的洪水，部分原因是欧洲非常寒冷的冬季天气。另一方面，随着新的散货船的出现，南非的运价自2008年的峰值以来略有下降。正如在以前的报告中所观察到的那样，价格是不可预测的，没有人能预见它们未来的演变。2010年炼焦煤的现货价格在200-215美元/吨离岸价之间波动。如今，铁矿石价格基本上按季度收缩，新兴的现货市场也变得越来越重要;分析师预测，2011年的合约价格可能达到400美元/吨。美元疲软使从美国向欧洲进口煤炭更具吸引力。中国焦炭的现货价格仍然很高，年底时达到近500美元/吨，由于需求强劲，预计未来价格和炼焦煤价格都将保持高位。2011年初澳大利亚的洪水将是推动价格上涨的另一个因素。这肯定会对国际钢铁行业产生影响。钢铁行业是焦炭和炼焦煤的最大客户。由于精心准备，增加了供应的焦煤，一些蒸汽煤矿有可能销售炼焦混合煤。由于焦煤的交易量相对较低，焦煤市场将不可避免地保持波动和不可预测，往往会出现延迟的反应，比如昆士兰洪灾。这仅仅是由于这样一个事实:许多客户在价格高企时，在谈判新的、更有利的合同之前，会首先使用他们的库存。对欧洲来说，一个值得注意的情况是，南非等主要蒸汽煤出口国向印度和中国出售的煤炭越来越多，价格也高于欧盟市场上的价格。亚洲现在倾向于决定世界价格，只要亚洲经济繁荣，这种趋势就会持续下去。运费率分析显示，波罗的海干散货运价指数、理查兹湾-亚拉运费率和从其他地方运往亚拉港口的硬煤现货运费率(好角型)之间存在明显的相关性。2010年的运价仍然很低，例如理查兹湾-阿拉航线的指示性价格为8-14美元/吨，这对航运公司造成了伤害，一些公司破产，另一些公司以购买价格的一半出售新收购的船只。它还对运费产生了奇怪的影响，即使是非常不同的路线和距离，运费也可能相似。2010年，欧洲的到岸价格再一次低于理查兹湾的离岸价，这表明煤炭在这条曾经重要的航线上缺乏运输。总的来说，托运人的情况并不健康，但无论如何，这是自由市场的必然结果。与煤炭价格和运价不同，碳价几乎没有波动，几乎没有交易机会。

WORLD MARKET Whilst 2010 figures are still preliminary, the general trends described below are  accurate.  Global world hard coal production between 1990 and 2010 increased by an  enormous 85%, reaching close to 6.5 Gt, of which 5.7 Gt was steam coal and 0.8 Gt  was coking coal. Over the last decade, growth in coal use has been dominated by  China.  WORLD COAL TRADE Preliminary figures on seaborne hard coal trade show an increase from 2000 to 2010  of 84%, reaching 971 Mt in 2010 (726 Mt steam coal and 245 Mt coking coal, 9% and  25% year-on-year increases respectively).  Japan was again the world’s largest coal importer with approximately 185 Mt.  China’s imports again surged ahead in 2010 to reach 166 Mt, a 31% annual increase  and making it the world’s second largest importer with apparently no limit to its  appetite for coal. Korea and Taiwan were the next most significant importers: 119 Mt  and 63 Mt respectively. Australia, with 301 Mt, was the main exporter of hard coal (a  33 % market share), closely followed by Indonesia whose exports surged by 57 Mt to  290 Mt (+24%), and Russia with 90 Mt. STEAM COAL Seaborne steam coal trade increased by 62 Mt compared with the previous year,  the major driver being demand from the Pacific market. Europe and the USA, still  suffering from the consequences of the economic crisis, saw their steam coal  demand remain low. Major suppliers on the Pacific market were Indonesia (+60 Mt)  and South Africa (+13 Mt), and Colombia on the Atlantic market (+6 Mt). South  Africa exported 9 Mt less to the Atlantic market and Russia 5 Mt less, both preferring  to orientate their exports to Asian markets. The supply gap they left on the European  market was largely covered by Colombian coal.  COKING COAL For the first time since 2007, the coking coal market returned to strong growth and  recorded an increase of 49 Mt, major players being Australia (+24 Mt) and the USA  (+17 Mt). Chinese demand for seaborne coking coal significantly decreased, as  China relied on coking coal from Mongolia, transported by rail. World crude steel  production was 1.4 Gt for 2010, an increase of 15% on 2009, with increased output in  most regions.  HARD COAL PRICES Spot steam coal prices to NW Europe followed a slight but stable increase over a  long period since 1990, until the sharp peak in the summer of 2008. Even after the  subsequent slump, prices have been generally higher than in previous years. The  prices of around 130 US$/t in early 2011 have been partly due to floods in  Queensland, and partly due to the very cold winter weather in Europe. Freight rates  from South Africa, on the other hand, have fallen slightly since the 2008 peak, as new  bulk carriers have become available. As observed in previous reports, prices are  unpredictable and nobody can foresee their future evolution.  Spot prices for coking coal varied in 2010 between 200-215 US$/t fob. Prices are now  mostly contracted on a quarterly basis, with an emerging spot market also becoming  more important; analysts predict that contracts for 2011 could reach 400 US$/t. The  weak US$ has made importing coal from the US to Europe more attractive. Spot prices for Chinese coke remained very high, reaching almost 500 US$/t by the  year end, and prices are expected to remain high in the future, along with prices for  coking coal, due to strong demand. The floods in Australia in early 2011 will be an additional factor pushing prices up. This will certainly have an impact on the  international iron and steel industry, the biggest customer for coke and coking coal.  Some steam coal mines have the possibility to sell coking coal blends, thanks to  careful preparation, increasing the coking coal on offer. Being traded in relatively  low quantities, the coking coal market will inevitably stay volatile and unpredictable,  often with a delayed response, as was observed for example with the Queensland  floods. This is simply due to the fact that many customers will first use their stocks  when prices are high, before negotiating new and hopefully more favourable  contracts.  A noteworthy situation for Europe is the move by major steam coal exporters, such as  South Africa, to sell more and more coal to India and China at higher prices than are  available on the EU market. Asia now tends to set world prices and this will continue  for as long as the Asian economies are booming.FREIGHT RATES Analysis shows a clear correlation between the Baltic Dry Index, Richards Bay – ARA  freight rates, and spot freight rates (capesize) for hard coal delivered to ARA ports  from elsewhere. Freight rates remained low in 2010, e.g. an indicative 8–14 $US/t on  the Richards Bay – ARA route, which is hurting shipping companies, with some going  bankrupt and others selling their newly acquired vessels for as little as half their  purchase price. It is also having a curious affect on freight rates, which can be similar  even for very different routes and distances. Once again in 2010, European cif prices  dropped below Richards Bay fob prices, indicating a lack of coal movements along  this once important route. Overall, the situation for shippers is not healthy, but is,  nevertheless, the proper outcome of a free market.  CARBON PRICES Unlike coal prices and freight rates, carbon prices have shown little or no volatility,  leaving very few trading opportunities.