资料简介
美国能源情报署(EIA)编制其年度能源展望(AEO)，以提供一系列情景，从反映现有政策的情景(参考案例)到假设经济条件导致燃煤电厂加速退休的情景(燃煤电厂加速退休)。EIA很清楚，这些预测反映的是某些因素，而不是预测或预测。参考案例是指没有公布或制定新政策，具有日落条款的现有政策确实无效，且技术以稳定的速度发展的情形。因此，这是煤炭需求的一个重要方面，而且这种需求水平极有可能出现下降。在过去几年中，实际结果与参考案例预测相差甚远。有时，EIA会根据特定的政策建议，包括《美国能源法案》和《美国清洁能源与安全法案》，做出预测。这些模型采用了与法律目标相一致的排放限制(这反过来又与奥巴马在哥本哈根的承诺相一致)。这些预测在过去的五年中被证明比那些假设没有约束的预测要准确得多，尽管这些法律从未被制定出来。这有力地表明，政策和技术是随着总的减排目标而来的，这些目标应该是发行人在提供前瞻性信息时考虑的主要指标。尽管如此，煤炭企业一直强调参考案例。本文讨论了为什么环评参考案例不适合作为煤炭行业财务规划和战略的依据，并回顾了环评参考案例在行业规划和战略中的应用。现在，2016年的参考案例反映了清洁能源计划，我们不禁要问，巴黎的排放限制是否将被证明是正确的领先指标?
The EIA produces its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) to provide a range of scenarios, from one reflecting existing policies (the Reference Case) to one that assumes economic conditions which drive accelerated coal plant retirements (Accelerated Coal Retirements). The EIA is very clear that these are projections reflecting certain factors, NOT predictions or forecasts. The Reference Case is by defnition a scenario in which no announced or new policies are enacted, existing policies with sunset provisions do become ineffective, and technology evolves at a steady pace. This is therefore a high case for coal demand, and there is every likelihood of a downside from this demand level. Indeed, actual results over the past several years have departed dramatically from Reference Case projections. EIA modelling of emissions reduction targets more accurate On occasion, the EIA has built projections based on specifc policy proposals, including the American Power Act and the American Clean Energy & Security Act. These models employed emissions constraints consistent with the laws’ targets (which, in turn, were largely consistent with Obama’s Copenhagen pledges). These projections have proven far more accurate over the past fve years than those that assumed no constraints even though the laws were never enacted. This strongly suggests that policy and technology are following in the wake of the overall emissions reductions targets and that those targets should be a leading indicator to be considered by issuers in providing forward-looking information. That said, coal companies have consistently emphasized the Reference Case. This paper discusses why the EIA Reference Case is not an appropriate basis for coal sector fnancial planning and strategy, and reviews how it has been utilized in industry SEC flings. With the 2016 Reference Case now reflecting the Clean Power Plan, we ask whether the Paris emissions constraints will prove to be the correct lead indicator?
资料截图
版权：如无特殊注明，文章转载自网络，侵权请联系cnmhg168#163.com删除！文件均为网友上传，仅供研究和学习使用，务必24小时内删除。
热门推荐
-
化学工程手册（第三版套装5册第1卷2卷3卷4卷5卷）袁渭康 王静康 费维扬 欧阳平凯 著 2021-09-09
-
石油化工自动控制设计手册（第四版） 黄步余 化工出版社 2020年 2021-09-09
-
化工过程模拟实训——Aspen Plus教程（第二版）孙兰义 化学工业出版社 2017年 2021-09-09
-
化工装置实用操作技术指南 韩文光2001年化学工业出版社 2021-09-09
-
HAZOP分析方法及实践 粟镇宇 化学工业出版社2018年 2021-09-09
-
工业除尘设备设计手册 张殿印 申丽 化工出版社 2012年 2021-09-09
-
回转窑（设计、使用与维修）沈阳铝镁设计院、长沙有色冶金设计院共同编写 2021-09-09
-
加拿大煤炭开采Coal Mining in Canada 2021-09-09
-
化工节能技术手册 王文堂 2006年化学工业出版社 2021-09-09
-
年终总结新年计划工作汇报PPT模板 2021-09-09