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欧亚煤炭市场报告2016-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2016-1(2016)

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世界煤炭市场发展-世界煤炭产量和海运贸易主要趋势2015年全球煤炭产量自上世纪90年代以来首次下降至70亿吨,反映出主要经济体的经济增长放缓和需求疲软。蒸汽煤产量略有下降从6 (Mt) 6 100吨和2亿吨炼焦煤下降了100吨到900吨。全球煤炭贸易全球海运无烟煤贸易在2015年估计为100吨,其中900吨动力煤和炼焦煤200吨。2015年12月,煤炭价格和趋势蒸汽煤价格继续下跌至每吨45美元的低点,2016年第一季度略有回升。欧洲煤炭市场自2012年以来持续下滑,原因包括批发电价较低、可再生能源补贴导致的市场份额下降、环境监管的压力,以及用于新项目的公共和私人资金有限。2015年捷克共和国的硬煤产量为8.2 Mt,较2014年的8.7 Mt略有下降。大约3.6 Mt的硬煤出口(-10%),大约2.9 Mt的硬煤进口,与2014年的数据相似。大部分的硬煤用于发电(2.3公吨)。丹麦的煤炭进口量从2014年的4.5公吨大幅下降至2015年的2.8公吨(-37%)。这个斯堪的纳维亚国家没有任何采矿作业,但使用固体燃料发电。2015年,进口为3.5吨,焦煤为1.3吨。2016年,只有普洛斯佩-哈尼尔(er- haniel)和伊本布伦(Ibbenburen)两座硬煤矿将继续运营,这符合到2018年关闭所有硬煤矿的计划。与2014年的72.5吨相比,2015年波兰的硬煤产量几乎保持不变,为72.2吨。2015年西班牙的煤炭产量预计为3.0吨,较前一年大幅下降(-23%)。荷兰三个燃煤发电厂——ENGIE鹿特丹(800兆瓦),unip Maasvlakte MPP鹿特丹(1 100 MW)和RWE Essent Eemshaven (1 600 MW)——于2015年开始运营,确保电力供应、电网稳定性和显著减少排放的最先进的污染控制设备和效率高。2015年,土耳其政府批准新建三座燃煤电厂,新增装机容量240mw,进口动力煤6.2 Mt/年。英国的煤炭行业几乎不可能经历比2015年更糟糕的一年,这在很大程度上是由于一个单一的因素:英国的高碳税。对电网安全、电价和制造业(尤其是钢铁业)的影响经常见诸报端。2015年夏天,由于低库存,乌克兰曾出现电厂用煤短缺的情况。乌克兰东部战争的创伤开始愈合。从非管制领土运往管制领土的煤炭逐渐返回。超过5000万欧元被用于修复受军事冲突影响的发电机组。两家燃煤电厂,AES Galabovo TPP和ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 TPP,向Mini Maritsa Iztok EAD支付了全部约1.8亿欧元的债务。2015年,捷克的褐煤产量稳定在38.1公吨,大部分用于电力生产(29.4公吨)。2015年德国褐煤产量为178.1吨,与上年基本持平。在赫尔姆斯泰特(Helmstedt)(下降19%)和德国中部(下降10%),煤炭采掘量较低;而在莱茵兰(+2%)和卢萨蒂亚(+1%),这一比例高于2014年。2015年,波兰褐煤产量为63.1 Mt,略低于2014年的63.7 Mt。主要产地是铂族元素Bełchatow,每年有超过42吨。其他生产商包括PGE Turow、PAK Konin和PAK Adamow。褐煤发电提供53.2 TWh,占波兰电力市场的33%。由于夏季干燥、冬季寒冷,罗马尼亚最大的褐煤公司Oltenia Energy Complex度过了一个好年景,从2014年的22吨增加到2015年的24吨。斯洛伐克褐煤产量从2014年的2.2吨下降到2015年的1.8吨,下降了14%,大部分被用于发电。煤炭进口量保持稳定,约为3.7万吨。

 

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global coal production in 2015 decreased for the first time since the 1990s to 7.0 billion tonnes,  reflecting lower economic growth and weak demand in the major economies. Steam coal production  slightly decreased from 6 200 million tonnes (Mt) to 6 100 Mt and coking coal decreased by 100 Mt to  900 Mt. Global coal trade Global seaborne hard coal trade is estimated at 1 100 Mt in 2015, of which 900 Mt were steam coal and  200 Mt were coking coal. Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices continued their decline to a low of 45 $/tonne in December 2015, with a modest  recovery in the first months of 2016. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET The European coal market has continued to decline since 2012 because of low wholesale electricity  prices, loss of market share to subsidised renewables and pressure from environmental regulation as  well as the limited availability of public and private finances for new projects.Czech Republic Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 8.2 Mt in 2015, a small decrease from 2014,  when it stood at 8.7 Mt. Approximately 3.6 Mt of hard coal were exported (-10%) and approximately  2.9 Mt were imported, a figure similar to 2014. Most of the hard coal was used for electricity production  (2.3 Mt) .Denmark Danish coal imports declined sharply to 2.8 Mt in 2015 (-37%), from 4.5 Mt in 2014.Finland The Scandinavian country does not have any mining operations, but uses solid fuels for electricity  generation. In 2015, imports stood at 3.5 Mt, 1.3 Mt being coking coal. Germany In 2016, only two hard coal mines will remain in operation, Prosper-Haniel and Ibbenbren, in line with  the plan to close all hard coal mining by 2018. Poland Hard coal production in Poland remained almost the same in 2015 at 72.2 Mt, compared with 2014 at  72.5 Mt. Spain Coal production in 2015 is estimated at 3.0 Mt, a large decrease (-23%) from the previous year. The Netherlands Three coal-fired power plants – ENGIE Rotterdam (800 MW), Uniper Maasvlakte MPP Rotterdam  (1 100 MW) and RWE Essent Eemshaven (1 600 MW) – started operations in 2015, assuring electricity  supply, grid stability and significantly reducing the emissions with their state-of-the-art pollution control  equipment and high efficiency. Turkey In 2015, the Turkish government approved the construction of three new coal-fired power plants,  increasing capacity by 2 480 MW and thermal coal imports by 6.2 Mt/year. United Kingdom The coal industry in the United Kingdom could hardly have had a worse year than 2015, largely due to  a single factor: the high UK carbon tax. The consequences for grid security, electricity prices and the  manufacturing sector, particularly steel, were frequently in the news. Ukraine Ukraine recovered after a shortage of coal for power plants in the summer of 2015 due to low inventories.  The wounds from the war in Eastern Ukraine are starting to heal. Shipments of coal from non-controlled  territories to the controlled territories gradually returned. More than €50 million were spent to repair  generating units affected by the military conflict. LIGNITE Bulgaria Two coal-fired power plants, AES Galabovo TPP and ContourGlobal Maritsa East 3 TPP, paid their entire  debt of around €180 million, to Mini Maritsa Iztok EAD.Czech Republic Brown coal production in the Czech Republic remained steady at 38.1 Mt in 2015, most being utilised in  electricity production (29.4 Mt). Germany Lignite production in 2015 was 178.1 Mt, almost the same as the previous year. In Helmstedt (-19%) and  Central Germany (-10%), coal extraction was lower; while in Rhineland (+2%) and in Lusatia (+1%), it was  higher than in 2014. Poland In 2015, lignite production stood at 63.1 Mt, slightly less than the 63.7 Mt produced in 2014. The leading  producer is PGE Bełchatw, with over 42 Mt per year. Other producers include PGE Turw, PAK Konin  and PAK Adamw. Lignite-fired power generation supplied 53.2 TWh, covering about 33% of the Polish  electricity market. Romania Lignite production slightly increased to 24 Mt in 2015, from 22 Mt in 2014, following a good year for  Oltenia Energy Complex, the largest Romanian lignite company, due to a dry summer and cold winter. Slovakia Lignite production decreased by 14% to 1.8 Mt in 2015, from 2.2 Mt in 2014, most being consumed for  electricity generation. Coal imports remained stable, at around 3.7 Mt.

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