欧亚煤炭市场报告2016-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2016-2(2016)

世界煤炭市场的发展-世界煤炭生产和海运贸易的重要事件，动力煤价格正在改善，之前的焦煤价格上涨，主要是由于中国供应减少。ARA的价格从2016年1月的45美元/吨(cif NWE)上涨到2016年8月的60美元/吨以上，这也受到了海运费缓慢回升的轻微推动。中国政府放松了对煤炭产量的限制，增加了煤矿的工作天数和产量。全球煤炭产量和贸易初步预测显示，2015年全球煤炭产量略有下降，与2014年的7219吨相比，减少了7009吨，其中约6100吨是动力煤，900吨是炼焦煤。产量下降的主要原因是印度尼西亚的产量下降，部分原因是中国的产量下降。受产能过剩的影响，煤炭价格和趋势蒸汽煤价格开始回升，在阿拉(安特卫普-鹿特丹-阿姆斯特丹)港口超过60美元/吨。在经历了艰难的2015年后，炼焦煤价格也出现反弹。欧洲煤炭行业主要受到监管挑战的阻碍:碳定价，包括英国和欧盟碳排放交易体系(ETS)的碳排放下限税;可再生能源补贴带来的低电价;以及现代化的压力，由于对公共和私人部门融资的武断规定，这一任务变得更加困难。今年前6个月，捷克的硬煤产量小幅下降至3.6公吨(同比下降5%)，而褐煤产量几乎保持在18.6公吨(同比下降1%)的水平。进口的硬煤也下降了，降至1.3公吨(- 19%)，这是由于进口的动力煤减少了。焦煤产量与上年持平，为0.6吨。出口增长至2.1吨(增长37%)，主要由焦煤推动。动力煤的主要出口市场在斯洛伐克和波兰，而焦煤的主要出口市场在匈牙利和奥地利。2016年前两个季度，德国剩下的两个硬煤矿，Bottrop的er- haniel和Osnabruck附近的Ibbenburen，产量为2.6 Mt，与2015年同期相比下降了42%。这一下降主要是由于奥古斯特维多利亚矿计划于2016年1月1日关闭。波兰的硬煤产量基本保持不变，2016年上半年为34.3吨。煤炭进口从3.5吨增加到3.9吨(增长8%)。波兰扭转了最近的趋势，现在再次成为煤炭净出口国。今年上半年，出口达到4.6吨，炼焦煤为1.2吨。与2015年同期相比，西班牙2016年上半年的煤炭产量下降到1.2吨(-14%)，而煤炭进口下降到6.6吨(-25%)。炼焦煤进口量几乎保持在同一水平，为1.0 Mt，而动力煤进口量降至5.6 Mt(-29%)。土耳其的褐煤产量为25.2 Mt(+22%)，较2015年下降后强劲回升，2016年上半年的硬煤产量为0.7 Mt(无变化)。今年上半年，中国进口硬煤16.1万吨，同比增长10%。与2015年同期相比，2016年上半年，英国燃煤发电量显著下降(下降58%)，为18.15 TWh。乌克兰煤炭产量从19.4吨下降到19.0吨，而2016年上半年进口达到12.8吨，这些数据包括来自非政府控制地区的产量。据估计，2016年上半年爱尔兰煤炭进口量为1.0公吨(-17%)。这包括烟煤、无烟煤、专利燃料和BKB。2016年前6个月的泥炭产量估计为1.5公吨(-16%)。荷兰去年新增了3.5吉瓦的燃煤发电能力，荷兰的煤炭进口量从2015年上半年的6.6吨增加到2016年上半年的6.9吨。在政治发展方面，荷兰议会邀请政府讨论有关RWE、Uniper和Engie的碳排放问题。保加利亚褐煤产量与2015年同期相比下降了27%，2016年上半年为11.9 Mt。Maritsa East 1 (BG)和Nea Santa (GR)之间的400千伏互联电力线正在建设中，有强大的政治支持允许更多的保加利亚电力出口到希腊。2016年上半年德国褐煤产量为83.8 Mt，比2015年上半年下降2%。褐煤消费量为75.8吨，较2015年同期下降1.2%。一次能源消耗方面，褐煤下降1.6%，硬煤下降1.9%;而天然气和可再生能源有所增长。几个月来，净暗差低于净暗差，但仍为正。希腊初步数据显示，燃煤电厂的发电量只有2008-09年危机前的一半。电力消耗降低、老机组环保限制、油气价格较低、进口电价较低(主要来自保加利亚、阿尔巴尼亚和意大利)、褐煤生产成本增加等因素都对褐煤产生了负面影响。2016年上半年，匈牙利的褐煤产量为4.3吨，与2015年上半年持平。煤炭进口几乎保持不变，为0.7吨。在政治发展方面，匈牙利的能源政策没有变化;政府支持扩大煤炭使用，包括在化工行业。2016年前6个月，罗马尼亚的褐煤产量为10.2吨，比2015年同期下降11%。进口量为0.5吨，与2015年上半年持平。罗马尼亚主要的褐煤公司Complexul energy Oltenia正在从今年上半年的损失中恢复过来。然而，持续的管理不稳定正在影响公司。波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那一座300兆瓦的褐煤发电厂于2016年9月在波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那北部的斯坦纳里投产。该发电厂由中国东方电气公司建造，由中国国家开发银行提供3.5亿欧元贷款。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Important events Thermal coal prices are improving, following the earlier gains in coking coal prices, mainly driven by  Chinese supply reduction. ARA prices increased from around 45 USD/tonne in January 2016 (cif NWE) to over 60 USD/tonne in August 2016, slightly pushed also by slowly recovering sea freight rates. The  Chinese government relaxed its curbs on coal output, increasing the allowed number of work days at  mines and their output. Global coal production and trade  Preliminary projections for 2015 show a slight decline in global coal production, 7 009 Mt in comparison  with 7 219 Mt in 2014, out of which about 6 100 Mt is steam coal and 900 Mt is coking coal. The decline  is mainly due to the production decrease in Indonesia and, partly, China.Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices are starting to recover, drawn by reduced overcapacity, passing the 60 USD/t at ARA  (Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam) ports. Coking coal prices recovered as well, after a difficult 2015. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET The coal industry in Europe is hampered by mainly regulatory challenges: carbon pricing, including the  carbon floor tax in the UK and EU ETS allowances; low electricity prices due to subsidised renewables;  and pressure to modernise, a task made more difficult due to arbitrary rules on public and private  financing for the sector. HARD COAL Czech Republic Production of hard coal slightly dropped to 3.6 Mt (-5% year-on-year) in the first six months, while lignite  remained at almost the same level 18.6 Mt (-1%). Imports of hard coal decreased as well, to 1.3 Mt (- 19%), driven by lower steam coal imports. Coking coal remained flat at 0.6 Mt. Exports increased to  2.1 Mt (+37%), mainly driven by coking coal (1.29 Mt, +61%). The main export markets for steam coal  were in Slovakia and Poland, while the main markets for coking coal were in Hungary and Austria.Germany In the first two quarters of 2016, the two remaining hard coal mines, Prosper-Haniel in Bottrop and  Ibbenbren near Osnabrck, produced 2.6 Mt, -42% in comparison with the same period in 2015. The  decline was caused mainly by the planned closure of Auguste Victoria mine on 1 January 2016. Poland Hard coal production in Poland remained almost the same, at 34.3 Mt in first half of 2016. Coal imports  increased from 3.5 to 3.9 Mt (+8%). Poland reversed the recent trend and it is now again a coal net coal  exporter. In the first half of the year, exports reached 4.6 Mt, coking coal being at 1.2 Mt.Spain Spain’s coal production dropped in the first half of 2016 to 1.2 Mt (-14%), while coal imports decreased  to 6.6 Mt (-25%) compared with the same period in 2015. Coking coal imports remained almost at the  same level, 1.0 Mt, while steam coal dropped to 5.6 Mt (-29%). Turkey Turkey produced 25.2 Mt of lignite (+22%), a strong recovery after the decrease in 2015, and 0.7 Mt (no  change) of hard coal in the first half of 2016. Hard coal imports in the first six months were 16.1 Mt, a  10% increase in comparison with the same period in 2015. United Kingdom Coal-fired electricity generation decreased significantly in H1 2016 (-58%), to 18.15 TWh, in comparison  with the same period in 2015. Ukraine Ukrainian coal production declined from 19.4 Mt to 19.0 Mt, while imports reached 12.8 Mt in the first  half of 2016, figures which include production from the non-governmental controlled territories. Ireland An estimate of coal imports for the first six months of 2016 in Ireland is 1.0 Mt (-17%). This includes  bituminous coal, anthracite, patent fuel and BKB. The estimate for peat production is 1.5 Mt for the first  six months of 2016 (-16%). Netherlands With 3.5 GW of new coal-fired capacity added to the Dutch grid last year, coal imports to the Netherlands  increased from 6.6 Mt in H1 2015 to 6.9 Mt in H1 2016. On political developments, the Dutch parliament has invited the government for discussions on carbon  emissions which concerns RWE, Uniper and Engie.LIGNITE Bulgaria Bulgarian lignite production decreased by 27%, to 11.9 Mt in the first half of 2016 in comparison with  the same period in 2015. Coal imports dropped by 43% to 0.4 Mt. The 400 kV Interconnection Power Line between Maritsa East 1 (BG) and Nea Santa (GR) is progressing,  with strong political support to allow more Bulgarian electricity exports to Greece. Germany Lignite production in the first half of 2016 was 83.8 Mt, 2% below H1 2015. Lignite consumption, at  75.8 Mt, was 1.2% lower than the same period in 2015. In terms of primary energy consumption, lignite decreased by 1.6% and hard coal decreased by 1.9%;  while gas and renewables had gains. Clean dark spreads were lower than clean dark spreads for some  months, but still positive. Greece Preliminary data shows that electricity production from coal-fired power plants was half the level seen  before the crisis of 2008-09. Lower electricity consumption, environmental restrictions on old units, low  oil and gas prices, low imported electricity prices (mainly from Bulgaria, Albania and Italy) and increased  lignite production costs, caused by an increased stripping ratio, all had a negative impact on lignite. Hungary Hungary produced 4.3 Mt of lignite in the first six months of 2016, the same output as in H1 2015. Coal  imports remained almost the same as well, at 0.7 Mt. On political developments, there is no change in Hungarian energy policy; the government supports the  expansion of coal use, including in the chemical industry. Romania In the first six months of 2016, 10.2 Mt of lignite were produced, 11% less than the same period in 2015.  Imports were 0.5 Mt, the same level as H1 2015. The main Romanian lignite company, Complexul Energetic Oltenia, is recovering from losses incurred  during the first part of the year. However, continuous managerial instability is affecting the company. Bosnia and Herzegovina A 300 MW lignite-fired power plant came online in September 2016 at Stanari in northern Bosnia and  Herzegovina. The power plant was built by China's Dongfang Electric Corp and financed by the China  Development Bank with a €350 million loan.