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欧亚煤炭市场报告2008-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2008-2(2008) 欧亚煤炭市场报告2008-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2008-2(2008)

欧亚煤炭市场报告2008-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2008-2(2008)

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世界市场的一些数据是初步的。然而,所描述的一般趋势是正确的。2008年伊始,全球硬煤市场处于极度紧张状态。世界海运煤炭市场萎缩了6百万。与2007年第一季度相比。这不是需求的问题,而是供应不足的问题。1。动力煤(见表2)a)太平洋市场供应2008年第一季度供方供应疲软。Australia 不能 增加 其 动力 煤 exports, Indonesia 未能 实现 其 第 一季度 的 出口 目标 , 因为 沉重 的 rainfalls.越南停止向中国非法出口煤炭。这笔交易的金额估计为6-8百万美元。t / a。在需求方面,日本和韩国的煤炭需求高于2007年。亚洲的供需平衡非常紧张,推高了全球的价格。b)大西洋市场供给大西洋供给面也较弱。南非、波兰和委内瑞拉减少了煤炭出口——哥伦比亚、美国和俄罗斯通过增加出口来平衡供应。欧洲的需求面较弱,煤炭需求量也低于2007年。2。焦煤供应(见表3)焦煤供应进入极度短缺状态。澳大利亚的生产受到了大规模洪灾、港口配额和铁路建设延误的严重影响。澳大利亚的出口量减少了3百万。而不是增长。乌克兰和印度对来自世界市场的更多焦煤需求强劲。美国和加拿大出口了更多的焦煤,但出口不足,以平衡市场。全球钢铁需求也居高不下。3.价格演变(见表1)a)动力煤价格南非动力煤(6000 kcal/kg NAR)的到岸价ARA现货价格在今年第一季度出现了爆炸性增长。从2007年8月开始,出现了急剧增长。以总热量(7000千卡/公斤)计算。动力煤部门和出口基础设施的低投资活动导致了煤炭供应链许多部分的瓶颈,这种瓶颈将在2008/2009年继续存在。这几年市场很不稳定。6月底,价格攀升至每吨145欧元。b)焦煤和焦炭价格半软焦煤和PCI-coal的价格将以同样的速度上涨,当然会比动力煤的价格高得多。焦炭价格(含灰分12.5%)接近中国离岸价600美元/吨的历史最高水平。3所示。运价运价也处于极高的水平。尽管散货船数量大幅增加,而且几乎没有报废,但货运价格仍然居高不下。每吨运输距离的增加、滞期费的增加以及燃料价格的上涨都推高了运费。运费的波动越来越大。例如,理查兹湾基准运费从6月初的64美元/吨降至6月底的35美元/吨。

 

WORLD MARKET Some figures are preliminary. Nevertheless, the general tendencies described are correct. The world  market for hard coal started the year 2008 under extreme tensions.  World Market Coal The world seaborne coal market shrank by 6 Mio. t compared with the first quarter 2007. This was not  a matter of demand but of lacking supply.  1. Steam Coal (see table 2)  a) Pacific Market supply The supply side was weak in the first quarter of 2008. Australia could not increase its steam coal exports, Indonesia failed to achieve its export targets for the first quarter because of heavy rainfalls.  Vietnam stopped the illegal export of coal to China. The amount of this trade is estimated at 6-8 Mio.  t/a.  On the demand side, Japan and South Korea were demanding more coal than in 2007. The supply /  demand balance is very tight in Asia and is pushing up the prices worldwide. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply side is also weak. South Africa, Poland and Venezuela exported less coal - Colombia, the USA and Russia balanced the supply side by increasing their exports.  The demand side in Europe is weak and less coal is being demanded than in 2007.  2. Coking coal supply (see Table 3)  Coking coal supply went to a situation of extreme shortage. Australian production was heavily affected by massive flooding, port quotas and delayed rail improvements.  The Australian exports decreased by 3 Mio. t in the first quarter instead of increasing. Ukraine and  India were showing strong demand for additional coking coal from the world market. The USA and  Canada exported more coking coal but exported not enough, to bring the market in balance.  The worldwide steel demand also stays high. 3. Price evolution (see Table 1)  a) Steam Coal Prices The cif ARA spot price for South African steam coal (6000 kcal/kg NAR) exploded in the first quarter  of the year. From August 2007 onwards, a steep increase occurred. In terms of tce (7000 kcal/kg).The low investment activities in the steam coal sector as well as in exports infrastructure has led to  bottlenecks in many parts of the coal supply chain, which will continue in 2008/2009. We had to expect a very volatile market in these years. End of June the price climbed to 145 €/tce.  b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Semi-soft coking coal and PCI-coal prices will rise at the same rate and will of course be much higher priced than steam coal.  Coke prices (12.5% ash content) are close to new record levels close to 600 US$/t fob China. 3. Freight rates The freight rates are also at extremely high levels. Despite big increases in the bulk-carrier fleet and  nearly no scrapping, the prices for freight remained high. Longer distances per ton, demurrage situations and higher fuel-prices pushed the freight rates up.  The volatility of the freight rates is growing. For example the benchmark freight rate Richards Bay  decreased from 64 US$/t beginning June to 35 US$/t end of June.

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