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欧亚煤炭市场报告2015-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2015-2(2015)

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世界煤炭市场发展-世界煤炭生产和海运贸易重要事件中国,世界上最大的煤炭消费国,结束了其长期的煤炭需求增长,导致进口和产量下降。今年1月,中国出台了新的煤炭质量控制规定,导致货运延误和贸易停滞。这些困难很快就消失了,随后澳大利亚政府宣布了新的质量规定,并进行了外交努力。全球煤炭产量和贸易初步预测显示,2015年全球硬煤产量略有下降,为7100吨,2014年为7200吨。在ARA (Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam)港口,煤炭价格和趋势蒸汽煤价格在52-58美元/吨之间继续下跌。炼焦煤价格在经历了2014年的持平后也有所下降。欧洲煤炭市场欧洲煤炭行业受到三个方面的推动:全球煤炭价格较低,原因是产能过剩;可再生能源补贴带来的低电价;此外,监管部门还面临着现代化的压力,由于公共和私人部门为该行业提供的融资有限,这一任务变得非常困难。前6个月,捷克的硬煤产量下降到3.8 Mt(-21%),褐煤产量略微下降到18.8 Mt(-1%)。相比之下,进口的硬煤增加到1.6吨(+20%),0.6吨是焦煤。出口下降到1.5吨(下降30%),主要由焦煤(0.8吨,下降37%)推动。今年前两个季度,德国剩余的三个硬煤矿产量为4.5吨。与前一年相比,这一数字略高,因为效率更高,对采矿活动的干扰更少。今年前6个月,德国的硬煤进口量也增至26.7吨,而煤炭总消耗量有所下降。这表明,由于低蒸汽煤价格,许多公用事业公司补充了煤炭库存。波兰硬煤产量从2014年上半年的35.2吨小幅下降至2015年上半年的34.4吨,降幅为0.8%。动力煤下降1.6%至28公吨,焦煤小幅上升至6.4公吨(+0.8%)。今年上半年,西班牙的燃煤发电量强劲增长59%,达到22.98 TWh,而水力发电的发电量则有所下降。总发电量增加1%,达到127.89 TWh。燃煤电厂的良好表现导致煤炭进口从6.2吨增加到8.8吨,其中包括无烟煤。土耳其今年上半年生产了20.7吨褐煤和0.7吨硬煤。今年前6个月的硬煤进口量为14.6吨。英国前6个月的煤炭消费量为17.5吨,是自1830年第一列蒸汽火车出现以来的最低水平。原因之一是英国的碳税。自4月份以来,英国的碳税翻了一番,达到每吨18.08英镑。乌克兰煤炭产量从22.7吨下降到19.4吨,2015年上半年进口量达到3.3吨。丹麦今年前6个月的煤炭进口量降至1.3吨。丹麦Fyn发电站被Fjernvarme Fyn从Vattenfall收购,Fjernvarme Fyn是欧登塞镇的一家大股东。据估计,2015年上半年爱尔兰的煤炭进口量为1.2吨,其中包括烟煤、无烟煤、专利燃料和BKB。2015年前六个月的泥炭产量预计为1.6万吨。意大利今年上半年的煤炭进口量估计在9.6吨左右,略低于2014年上半年的9.7吨。荷兰煤炭进口量从2014年上半年的6.1吨增加到2015年上半年的6.6吨。保加利亚褐煤产量同比增长10%,上半年达到16.2 Mt。德国上半年褐煤产量为85.5吨,比2014年上半年下降3.9%。褐煤消费量比去年同期下降了2.7%。希腊褐煤产量与去年同期相比下降了13%,今年上半年为22.7吨,主要原因是矿藏枯竭。新建的650兆瓦褐煤发电厂托勒马奥斯五世(Ptolemaios V)开工建设,计划于2019年投入运营。匈牙利今年上半年生产了4.3吨褐煤,比去年同期减少了7%。罗马尼亚由于天气干燥,水电和核电受到抑制,褐煤度过了一个非常好的夏天。今年前6个月的产量为11.4吨,比去年同期增长12%。在洪水影响了塞尔维亚的矿山之后,向塞尔维亚出口了0.5吨。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Important events China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, ended its long period of coal demand growth, leading to a  drop both in imports and production. In January, China introduced new coal quality control rules that  led to cargo delays and stifled trade. The difficulties quickly receded, only to be followed by the  announcement of new quality rules from July and diplomatic efforts by the Australian government.Global coal production and trade  Preliminary projections for 2015 show a slight decline in global hard coal production, 7,100 Mt in  comparison with 7,200 Mt in 2014. Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices continued their decline, drawn by weaker consumption, in the range of 52-58 USD/t  at ARA (Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam) ports. Coking coal prices are depressed as well, after a flat year  in 2014. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET The coal industry in Europe is pushed on three sides: worldwide low coal prices, due to overproduction;  low electricity prices due to subsidised renewables; and regulatory pressure to modernise, a task made  difficult due to limited public and private financing for the sector. HARD COAL Czech Republic Production of hard coal dropped to 3.8 Mt (-21%) in the first six months, while lignite slightly decreased  to 18.8 Mt (-1%). In contrast, imports of hard coal increased to 1.6 Mt (+20%), 0.6 Mt being coking coal.  Exports dropped to 1.5 Mt (-30%), mainly driven by coking coal (0.8Mt, -37%). Germany In the first two quarters of this year the three remaining hard coal mines produced 4.5 Mt. Compared to  the prior year period this was slightly higher due to higher efficiency and less disturbances to mining  activities. German hard coal imports also increased to 26.7 Mt in the first six months, while overall coal  consumption decreased. This indicates that many utilities refilled their coal stocks because of low steam  coal prices. Poland Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased by 0.8% from 35.2 Mt in first half of 2014 to 34.4 Mt in first half of 2015. Steam coal decreased by 1.6% to 28 Mt, while coking coal slightly increased to 6.4 Mt  (+0.8%). Spain Spain had a strong coal-fired generation increase of 59%, to 22.98 TWh, in the first half of the year, at  the expense of hydro generation. Total generation increased by 1%, to 127.89 TWh. The good coal-fired  power plants performance led to a rise from 6.2 Mt to 8.8 Mt of coal imports, including anthracite. Turkey Turkey produced 20.7 Mt of lignite and 0.7 Mt of hard coal in the first half of the year. Hard coal imports  in the first six months of the year were 14.6 Mt. United Kingdom Coal consumption of 17.5 Mt in the first six months in the UK is the lowest since 1830 when the first  steam trains appeared. A cause was the UK carbon tax, which has doubled since April to 18.08 GBP per  tonne. Ukraine Ukrainian coal production declined from 22.7 Mt to 19.4 Mt, while imports reached 3.3 Mt in the first  half of 2015. Denmark  Danish coal imports declined to 1.3 Mt in the first six months of the year. Danish Fyn power station was acquired by Fjernvarme Fyn, a company majority owned by the town of  Odense, from Vattenfall.Ireland  An estimate of coal imports for the first six months of 2015 in Ireland is 1.2 Mt. This includes bituminous  coal, anthracite, patent fuel and BKB. The estimate for peat production is 1.6 Mt for the first six months  of 2015.Italy Estimated coal imports in Italy in the first half of the year are around 9.6 Mt, slightly lower than the 9.7 Mt  in the first half of 2014. Netherlands Coal imports to the Netherlands increased from 6.1 Mt in H1 2014 to 6.6 Mt in H1 2015. LIGNITE Bulgaria Bulgarian lignite production increased by 10%, to 16.2 Mt in the first half of the year in comparison with  the same period last year.Germany Lignite production in the first half of the year was 85.5 Mt, 3.9% below H1 2014. Lignite consumption  was 2.7% lower than the same period last year. Greece Greek lignite production decreased by 13%, to 22.7 Mt in the first half of the year in comparison with  the same period last year, mainly due to exhausting deposits. The construction of the new 650 MW  lignite power plant Ptolemaios V started and is planned to be operational in 2019. Hungary Hungary produced 4.3 Mt of lignite in the first six months of the year, 7% less than the same period last  year. Romania Due to dry weather, which stifled hydro and nuclear generation, lignite had a very good summer. In the  first six months of the year, 11.4 Mt were produced, 12% more than the same period last year. 0.5 Mt  were exported to Serbia, following the floods that affected the Serbian mines.

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