欧亚煤炭市场报告2017-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2017-2(2017)

世界煤炭市场发展——世界煤炭生产和海运贸易显著事件8月中国国有资产监督管理委员会批准的合并该国最大的煤炭生产国,神华集团五大电力公司,中国国电集团公司、创建世界上最大的电力公司,价值超过2700亿美元。中国国家发展和改革委员会7月份宣布了几项旨在通过扩大本土供应来降低热煤价格的措施，其中包括在2017年新增约200至300吨的新煤矿，以扩大产能。中国政府明确表示，冶金用煤不会受到这些措施的影响。这些措施可能会减少中国冶金用煤的进口，并在未来几年降低冶金用煤的价格。煤炭企业正在复苏，其中多数实现了巨额利润。Peabody, 最大 world’s 私人 sector 煤炭 company, 宣布 2017 年 April 脱离 破产 , 报告 的 调整  EBITDA $659m 上半年 的 2017.Arch Coal报告称，2017年第二季度EBITDAR调整后为9530万美元，去年同期为亏损。2017年上半年，煤炭价格和趋势蒸汽煤价格保持稳定，在每吨93美元左右。在5月下跌之后，房价在夏季回升，并在秋季继续上涨，超过了2016年的高点。价格企稳的基本面是中国在矿产和港口采取的监管措施，以及韩国和中国的需求上升。欧洲煤炭市场从2012年开始下跌，现在已经出现了大幅逆转。一段时间的恶劣天气和可再生能源的低发电量，再加上电力系统的大量中断，导致煤炭使用量和产量增加。这对煤炭行业来说是个好消息，尽管动力煤价格下跌，运费上涨。粗钢产量的增加也导致冶金用煤消耗量的增加。2017年上半年，捷克的硬煤产量为2.7公吨(与2016年同期相比下降了26%)。与2016年上半年相比，硬煤出口量下降至1.22公吨(下降41%)，主要出口至斯洛伐克(0.5公吨)、奥地利(0.3公吨)、波兰(0.14公吨)和德国(0.1公吨)，其中0.75公吨为焦煤。今年上半年，中国进口的硬煤增至1.86吨(增长49%)，主要来自波兰(1.68吨)、加拿大和俄罗斯，其中0.87吨是焦煤。2017年上半年，丹麦煤炭进口量保持相对稳定，为1.4吨，而2016年同期为1.5吨。东能源公司日前宣布，将把780兆瓦的燃煤电厂阿斯纳斯电厂改造成木屑发电厂。这符合该公司的战略，即到2023年停止在其发电厂使用煤炭，代之以木球和木片。芬兰2017年上半年的初步数据显示，煤炭进口量增至1.7吨，其中1.0吨为动力煤。芬兰奥尔基洛托3号核电站再次从2018年推迟到2019年5月。今年上半年，法国的煤炭进口量从2016年同期的6.4吨增加到7.8吨。进口的动力煤供应了剩下的四个燃煤发电厂:1200兆瓦的法国电力公司(EDF);勒阿弗尔600兆瓦(EDF);620兆瓦的埃米尔赫切特(Uniper)和600兆瓦的普罗旺斯(Uniper)。普罗旺斯的植物正在转化为生物质。2017年上半年，德国煤炭产量从2016年同期的2.6吨小幅下降至2.2吨。煤炭进口量一直处于高位，为25.5吨，尽管略低于2016年上半年。爱尔兰2017年上半年煤炭进口的初步数据为1.3吨，包括烟煤、无烟煤、专利燃料和BKB。进口硬煤1.2万吨，比2016年同期增长20%。目前对2017年上半年泥炭产量的估计为2.0公吨，比2016年同期高出33%。2017年上半年，意大利煤炭进口量增至8.0吨，而2016年同期为7.5吨。意大利巩固了其作为欧盟第二大粗钢生产国的地位，仅次于德国。这反映在焦煤进口的增加上。荷兰的燃煤发电能力近年来有所增加，从3.9吉瓦增至4.7吉瓦，这反映在煤炭进口的增加上，2017年上半年的煤炭进口量估计为7.9万吨。波兰的硬煤产量在2017年上半年略有下降，为32.8吨，与2016年同期相比下降了4.4%。最大的生产商依然存在:波兰Grupa Gornicza(45%的市场份额),Jastrzebska Spolka Węglowa,主要专攻炼焦煤(23%的市场份额)和LW Bogdanka(14%的市场份额)。2017年上半年，西班牙的煤炭产量为1.7万吨，较上年同期大幅增长(+41.6%)。煤炭进口的初步数据显示，由于可再生能源发电量较低，煤炭进口量从2016年同期的6.6吨增加至9.4吨左右。今年上半年，土耳其的煤炭生产和进口保持相对稳定。2016年上半年，硬煤产量保持在0.7吨的水平;与此同时，褐煤产量增至26.5吨。2017年上半年，煤炭进口量从2016年同期的16.1吨小幅降至15.8吨。2017年上半年，煤炭占英国发电量的8.3%。煤炭产量为1.6吨(与2016年同期相比下降了15.8%)，进口量为4.0吨，这是由于煤炭发电量的下降。2017年上半年市场上的主要煤炭供应商是英国生产商(1.57公吨，32%)，其次是俄罗斯(1.36公吨，28%)和美国(1.15公吨，24%)。煤炭库存现在非常低。乌克兰燃煤电厂的库存降至1.1吨，主要原因是2017年3月顿巴斯(Donbass)的煤矿资产被查封导致无烟煤短缺，以及将a级(无烟煤)煤单元转换为g级导致g级煤短缺。2017年上半年，与2016年同期相比，保加利亚褐煤的煤炭利用和产量有所增加。褐煤产量增加到16.7 Mt(与2016年同期相比增加了40.3%)，而输送到发电厂的褐煤产量为16.9 Mt(增加了22.4%)。2017年上半年，捷克的褐煤产量小幅增长至19.3公吨(较2016年同期增长4%)，其中大部分用于电力生产(14.9公吨)。褐煤出口量小幅增加至0.4吨(+1%)，主要出口斯洛伐克、波兰和匈牙利。从德国进口的褐煤很少，只有0.07公吨。德国2017年上半年褐煤产量为86.5公吨，较2016年同期增长3.2%。褐煤产量约90% (78.0 Mt)用于发电厂发电和供热。2017年上半年，褐煤发电量略高，为75.2 TWh(比2016年同期增长2.4%)。一次能源消费方面，褐煤增长2.9%，核能下降17.5%。褐煤是希腊重要的发电燃料，约占电力市场的三分之一(2016年为31%)。2017年，PPC和较小的煤矿的褐煤产量预计在37.0 Mt左右。2017年褐煤发电预计将达到16.8 TWh，高于2016年的14.9 TWh。2017年上半年，匈牙利的煤炭产量为3.5吨，低于2016年同期。褐煤主要用于电力生产，3.4 Mt。煤进口量低，主要从捷克、波兰和美国进口，其中硬煤0.7 Mt，主要为焦煤，褐煤0.1 Mt。2017年上半年，波兰褐煤产量为30.7 Mt，比2016年同期增长8.3%。在波兰83.0 TWh(32.0%)的总发电量中，褐煤发电占26.6 TWh，高于2016年的比例。2017年上半年，罗马尼亚褐煤产量增至12.3吨，其中大部分由罗马尼亚第二大电力公司Oltenia Energy Complex开采。无论在产量上还是在财务上，公司都度过了非常好的一年。斯洛文尼亚褐煤产量在2017年上半年增加到1.9吨，比2016年同期增长了18%。燃煤发电提供了2.2 TWh，占斯洛文尼亚今年上半年净发电量的30.1%。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Notable event in August China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission approved the merger of the  country’s largest coal producer, Shenhua Group, with a top-five power company, China Guodian  Corporation, creating the world’s largest power utility, worth more than $270bn. Global coal production and trade China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced in July several measures aimed at  reducing thermal coal prices, by expanding indigenous supply, including additional new mines to expand capacity by around 200-300 Mt in 2017. The Chinese Government was clear that metallurgical coal will  not be affected by these measures which will likely decrease China’s metallurgical coal imports and  reduce metallurgical coal prices in the coming years. Corporate developments Coal companies are recovering, most making significant profits. Peabody, the world’s largest privatesector coal company, announced its emergence from bankruptcy in April 2017, reporting an adjusted  EBITDA of $659m in the first half of 2017. Arch Coal reported an adjusted EBITDAR of $95.3m in Q2  2017, compared with losses in the same period last year. Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices remained stable in the first half of 2017, at around 93 $/tonne. After a drop in May,  prices picked up during summer and continued increasing in the autumn months, surpassing the 2016  highs. The fundamentals for the price stabilisation were Chinese regulatory measures at mines and ports and higher demand from Korea and China.EUROPEAN COAL MARKET The European coal market has seen a sharp reversal of the decline which started in 2012. A spell of bad  weather and low electricity generation from renewables, combined with large outages from the system  led to an increased usage and production of coal. This good news for the coal industry comes despite  the dip in thermal coal prices and higher freight costs. Larger crude steel production contributed as well  to higher metallurgical coal consumption. HARD COAL Czech Republic Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 2.7 Mt in the first half of 2017 (-26% in  comparison with the same period of 2016). Hard coal exports decreased to 1.22 Mt (-41% in comparison  with the first half of 2016), mainly to Slovakia (0.5 Mt), Austria (0.3 Mt), Poland (0.14 Mt) and Germany  (0.1 Mt), of which 0.75 Mt were coking coal. Hard coal imports in the first part of the year increased to  1.86 Mt (+49%), mostly from Poland (1.68 Mt), Canada and Russia, of which 0.87 Mt were coking coal.Denmark Danish coal imports remained relatively stable at 1.4 Mt in first half of 2017, compared with 1.5 Mt in  the same period of 2016. DONG Energy announced that the 780 MW coal-fired Asnaes power plant will be converted to wood  chips. This follows the strategy of the company to stop using coal at its power plants by 2023, replacing  the fuel with wood pellets and wood chips.Finland Preliminary data for H1 2017 show that coal imports increased to 1.7 Mt, 1.0 Mt being steam coal. Finland's Olkiluoto 3 nuclear plant was delayed again from 2018 until May 2019. France France’s coal imports increased to 7.8 Mt in the first half of the year, from 6.4 Mt in the same period of  2016. The steam coal imports fed the four remaining coal-fired power plants: 1200 MW Cordemais (EDF);  600 MW Le Havre (EDF); 620 MW Emile Huchet (Uniper) and 600 MW Provence (Uniper). The Provence  plant is in the process of being converted to biomass. Germany In the first half of 2017, coal production slightly decreased to 2.2 Mt from 2.6 Mt in the same period of  2016. Coal imports have been at high levels, at 25.5 Mt, although slightly lower than in the first half of  2016.Ireland Preliminary data for coal imports for the first six months of 2017 is 1.3 Mt, including bituminous coal,  anthracite, patent fuel and BKB. Hard coal imports were 1.2 Mt, 20% higher than the same period of  2016. The current estimate for peat production is 2.0 Mt for the first six months of 2017, 33% higher  than the same period in 2016. Italy Italian coal imports increased to 8.0 Mt in the first half of 2017, compared with 7.5 Mt in the same period  of 2016. Italy reinforced its place as the second largest crude steel producer in the European Union, after  Germany. This is reflected by increased coking coal imports.  The Netherlands The coal-fired generation capacity of the Netherlands has increased in recent years, from 3.9 GW to  4.7 GW, which is reflected in the higher coal imports, estimated at 7.9 Mt in the first half of 2017. Poland Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased in the first half of 2017 to 32.8 Mt, -4.4% compared  with same period in 2016. The largest producers remain: Polska Grupa Grnicza (45% of the market),  Jastrzebska Spolka Węglowa, mostly specialised in coking coal (23% of the market) and LW Bogdanka  (14% of the market). Spain Coal production in the first half of 2017 was 1.7 Mt, a massive increase (+41.6%) from the same period  of the previous year. Provisional figures for coal imports show an increase to around 9.4 Mt, from 6.6 Mt in the same period in 2016, following low renewable power generation. Turkey Coal production and imports in Turkey remained relatively stable in the first half of the year. Hard coal  production remained at the same level as in the first half of 2016, at 0.7 Mt; while lignite production  increased to 26.5 Mt. Coal imports slightly declined to 15.8 Mt in the first half of 2017, from 16.1 Mt in  the same period of 2016. United Kingdom In the first half of 2017, coal represented 8.3% of generation in the UK. Coal production was 1.6 Mt  (down -15.8% compared with the same period of 2016) and imports stood at 4.0 Mt, following the  decline in coal generation. The main coal suppliers to the market in the first half of 2017 were UK  producers (1.57 Mt, 32%), followed by Russia (1.36 Mt, 28%) and USA (1.15 Mt, 24%). Coal stocks are  now very low.Ukraine Stocks at Ukrainian coal-fired power plants dropped to 1.1 Mt, mainly due to an anthracite deficit caused  by the seizure of mining assets in Donbass in March 2017 and a G-grade coal shortage caused by the  switching of coal units from A-grade (anthracite) to G-grade. LIGNITE Bulgaria Coal utilisation and production increased in the first half of 2017, in comparison with the same period  of 2016. Lignite production increased to 16.7 Mt (+40.3% in comparison with the same period of 2016),  while lignite deliveries to power plants stood at 16.9 Mt (+22.4%).Czech Republic Brown coal production in the Czech Republic slightly increased to 19.3 Mt in the first half of 2017 (+4%  compared with the same period of 2016), most being utilised in electricity production (14.9 Mt). Brown  coal exports slightly increased to 0.4 Mt (+1%), mainly to Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. Brown coal  imports were very minor, 0.07 Mt from Germany. Germany Lignite production in first half of 2017 was 86.5 Mt in Germany, 3.2% higher than the same period of  2016. About 90% of lignite production (78.0 Mt) was used in power plants to generate electricity and  heat. Power generation from lignite was slightly higher in first half of 2017, at 75.2 TWh (2.4% higher  than the same period of 2016). In primary energy consumption, brown coal increased by 2.9%, while  nuclear energy dropped by 17.5%. Greece Lignite is an important fuel for power generation in Greece, with about one third of the electricity market (31% in 2016). Lignite production is expected to be around 37.0 Mt in 2017, at PPC and smaller mines.  Lignite-fired electricity generation in 2017 is expected to reach 16.8 TWh, higher than in 2016 (14.9 TWh).Hungary Coal production in Hungary stood at 3.5 Mt in the first half of 2017, lower than in the same period of  2016. Most of the lignite was used in electricity production, 3.4 Mt. Coal imports are low, mainly from  the Czech Republic, Poland and the United States, and stood at 0.7 Mt hard coal, mostly coking coal,  and 0.1 Mt brown coal. Poland In the first half of 2017, lignite production stood at 30.7 Mt, 8.3% higher than in the same period of 2016.  Lignite-fired electricity provided 26.6 TWh of the 83.0 TWh (32.0%) gross electricity generation in Poland,  higher than the share in 2016.Romania Lignite production increased to 12.3 Mt in the first half of 2017, most being mined by Oltenia Energy  Complex, the second largest electricity company in Romania. The company enjoys a very strong year,  both in terms of production and financially. Slovenia Lignite production increased to 1.9 Mt in the first half of 2017, 18% higher than the same period of 2016.  Coal-fired generation provided 2.2 TWh, 30.1% of the net electricity production in Slovenia in the first  six months of the year.