2014年11月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR November 2014(2014)

原油价格变动10月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子平均为85.06美元/桶，较上月下降10.92美元。纽约商品交易所WTI指数下跌8.83美元，至平均84.34美元/桶，布伦特指数下跌10.52美元，至平均88.05美元/桶。布伦特-WTI指数价差在10月份进一步缩小，至平均3.70美元/桶，为15个月来的最低值。2014年和2015年世界经济增长预期与上一份报告相比分别保持不变，为3.2%和3.6%。经合组织预测，2014年和2015年分别为1.8%和2.1%，与上一份报告一致，其中美国经济持续改善，而欧元区和日本经济增长滞后。2014年和2015年，中国和印度的数据与上一份报告持平，分别为7.4%和7.2%，印度为5.5%和5.8%，世界石油需求2014年世界石油需求增长预计仍为105万桶/日。预计2014年第四季度石油总消费将达到今年的峰值，2014年石油总需求为9119万桶/日。2015年，世界石油需求增长预测为119万桶/日，与上一份报告一致，预计世界石油消费总量将达到9238万桶/日。预计2014年世界石油供应将增长168万桶/日。2015年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长124万桶/日。美国、加拿大、巴西和中国甚至将成为明年非欧佩克石油供应增长的主要贡献者。据估计，2015年欧佩克液化天然气和非常规液体的平均日产量为603万桶，高于2014年的583万桶。据二级消息人士透露，10月份，欧佩克原油平均日产量为3025万桶，从9月份略为上升的3048mb/d下降了0.23mb/d。产品市场和炼油业务轻馏分裂缝在大西洋盆地的蔓延范围缩小，几个破裂的催化裂化（FCC）装置返回，主要在美国海湾沿岸。尽管中间馏分油市场处于平衡状态，但由于桶顶亏损，炼油厂利润率下降。相比之下，亚洲市场在10月份由于低成本利差而失去了一些优势。油轮市场脏船的现货运价在各个级别上都有所上升，苏伊士型油轮的现货运价表现出最强的涨幅。超大型油轮、苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮现货运价分别较上月上涨15%、19%和17%。运价上涨主要受季节性需求、亚洲需求和港口延误增加的推动，9月份商业石油库存增加2120万桶，达到2719万桶。在这一水平上，商业石油库存仍比最新的五年平均水平低810万桶，原油库存显示出约1800万桶的盈余，而产品库存则比五年平均水平低2600万桶。从远期覆盖天数来看，俄商业石油库存较上月上涨0.1天，截至9月底为58.7天。2014年欧佩克原油供需平衡预计为2950万桶/日。2015年，所需石油产量平均为2920万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $85.06/b in October, representing a decline of$10.92 from the previous month. Nymex WTI dropped $8.83 to average $84.34/b andICE Brent shed $10.52 to average $88.05/b. The Brent-WTI spread has contractedfurther in October to average $3.70/b, the lowest difference in fifteen months.World EconomyWorld economic growth expectations for 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged from theprevious report at 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The OECD forecast stands at 1.8% for2014 and 2.1% for 2015, in line with the previous report, with the US showing acontinued improvement, while the Euro-zone and Japan are lagging in growth. Figuresfor both China and India remain unchanged from the previous report at 7.4% and 7.2%for China and 5.5% and 5.8% for India in 2014 and 2015, respectively.World Oil DemandThe estimate for world oil demand growth in 2014 remains at 1.05 mb/d. Total oilconsumption is expected to reach a peak for the year in 4Q14 resulting in total oildemand of 91.19 mb/d for 2014. For 2015, the forecast for world oil demand growthstands at 1.19 mb/d, in line with the previous report, with total world oil consumptionexpected to reach 92.38 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is estimated to grow by 1.68 mb/d in 2014. In 2015, non-OPECoil supply is projected to grow by 1.24 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil and China areseen to be the key contributors to next year’s non-OPEC supply growth. OPEC NGLsand non-conventional liquids are estimated to average 6.03 mb/d in 2015, up from5.83 mb/d in 2014. In October, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.25 mb/d,according to secondary sources, a decrease of 0.23 mb/d from the slightly upwardlyrevised September figure of 30.48 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsLight distillate crack spreads narrowed in the Atlantic Basin with the return of severaldisrupted fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units, mainly in the US Gulf Coast. Losses atthe top of the barrel resulted in a decline in refinery margins despite a balanced middledistillates market. In contrast, the Asian market lost some ground in October due tolower crack spreads.Tanker MarketSpot freight rates for dirty vessels saw increases across various classes with Suezmaxrates showing the strongest gains. VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot freight ratesrose by 15%, 19%, and 17%, respectively, over the previous month. Freight rate gainswere mainly driven by seasonal demand, Asian requirements and increased portdelays.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose by 21.2 mb in September to stand at 2,719 mb. Atthis level, commercial oil stocks were still 8.1 mb below the latest five-year average.Crude stocks showed a surplus of around 18 mb, while product inventories remainedroughly 26 mb below the five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECDcommercial oil stocks rose 0.1 days over the previous month to stand at 58.7 days inSeptember.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.5 mb/d in 2014. In 2015, required OPECcrude is seen averaging 29.2 mb/d.