2008年3月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR March 2008(2008)

今年2月，欧佩克参考价格篮子平均为90.64美元/桶，较上月上涨2.29美元或2.59%。美元走软推高油价，鼓励资金继续流入纸面石油市场，投资者寻求对冲通胀和汇率波动。地缘政治的复苏也给市场带来了压力，尽管美国原油和汽油库存的增加限制了这一上升趋势。在美元持续贬值和北美冬季寒流来袭的背景下，3月第一周，该篮子价格飙升至100美元/桶上方的峰值。3月13日，欧佩克参考一揽子价格达到102.39美元/桶。

据预测，2008年世界经济增长率为4.6%，与上月持平，尽管一些地区略有下调。在美国，就业报告看跌、2月份零售额下降以及3月初消费者信心下降，加剧了人们对上半年经济衰退的担忧。目前，全球一些最大金融机构报告的抵押贷款相关资产减记和损失接近1900亿美元。最近的调查显示，即使在美国以外，市场情绪似乎也在恶化。另外，中国通胀有所回升，2月份居民消费价格以8.7%的11年高位增长，这提高了人们对人民币加快升值的预期，认为人民币升值是抑制通胀和减缓经济增长的手段。2008年，中国的预测值保持在9.9%不变。美国的经济增长率已下调0.3个百分点至1.3%，而欧元区的经济增长率仍保持在1.8%不变，恢复力的迹象主要来自欧元区最大的经济体德国。日本经济增长率也保持在1.2%不变。

天气再次成为今年冬季经合组织石油需求的主要因素；暖冬不仅减少了冬季产品的消耗，还引发发电厂转向更便宜的天然气。预计经合组织第一季度石油消费将低于此前的预测。然而，非经合组织地区的石油需求强于预期，在一定程度上将抵消全球石油需求下调的影响。据预测，2008年世界石油需求将增长120万桶/日，达到平均8700万桶/日，与上月的预测一致。世界经济放缓和经合组织（OECD）部分地区的温暖天气削弱了对冬季产品的需求。经合组织第四季度的需求增长被修正为下降20万桶/日，这被拉丁美洲和非洲的强劲增长所抵消。2007年世界石油需求增长率估计保持在120万桶/日或1.4%不变。

据估计，2007年非欧佩克国家的供应增长为60万桶/日，与上月的评估基本持平。加拿大、乍得和俄罗斯的小幅下行调整几乎被美国、英国和苏丹的上行调整所抵消。2008，非欧佩克石油供应增长预计将平均0.9 Mb/d，代表加拿大、墨西哥、挪威、英国、巴西、乍得和俄罗斯的修正0.2 Mb/d，这部分抵消了苏丹、西欧和美国向上调整的影响。二月，欧佩克原油总产量平均为32.1 Mb/d，比上个月增加了82500桶/日。伊拉克的生产取得了重大进展。

在大西洋盆地最近的寒流以及由于季节性维护计划导致炼油厂减少之后，产品市场情绪略有改善。未来几个月，中间馏分油需求放缓、全球（尤其是美国）汽油库存增加以及原油价格居高不下，可能会限制炼油厂季节性扭亏为盈对炼油利润率的影响。然而，炼油厂停产的潜在风险可能会改变产品市场的现状，并支持产品和原油价格。

2月份，欧佩克的现货供应量平均增长了4%，达到1490万桶/日，而东部地区的现货供应量有所增加，而非欧佩克的现货供应量平均下降了9%，达到700万桶/日。2月份，欧佩克的航运量基本稳定，仅下降了90，2000桶/日，较上月上升至2330万桶/日。2月份，所有航线的超大型油轮原油运价均下降，平均下降17%，原因是活动减少和货源充足。受熊市影响，苏伊士型油轮2月份的运价有所下降。产品现货运价也有所下降，原因是活动有限，对美国的汽油套利已结束，炼油厂的运行和利润率下降。

初步数据显示，受冬季需求支撑，原油和产品净进口增加，经合组织1月份石油净进口总额较上月增加70万桶/日。美国原油进口下降40万桶/日，平均约980万桶/日，而美国产品进口下降95000桶/日，原因是炼油厂减少。2月份，日本石油净进口量下降了15.8万桶/日，原因是原油进口量下降，预计维护季节将到来，同时利润率也将走低。1月份，中国原油进口量增长至平均330万桶/吨，而成品油进口量增长了22%。由于原油和产品进口下降，印度1月份石油净进口下降17%，同比增长5%。

美国商业石油库存在2月份下降了约400万桶，但仍保持在一年前的水平，与五年平均水平相比，过剩了240万桶。这一下降是由产品推动的，尽管下降幅度仍高于5年平均水平，但汽油库存量在本月底达到了234MB的14年高点，并在3月初进一步增加。原油库存继续上涨，高于5年平均水平。在欧盟15国和挪威，石油库存总量抵消了上个月的增长，但原油和成品油均与5年平均水平持平，日本1月份的商业石油库存保持稳定，而5年平均水平的赤字缩小到仅300万桶，而初步数据显示，2月份库存急剧下降。

2007年欧佩克原油需求平均3190万桶/日，比上年增加30万桶/日；2008年欧佩克原油需求平均3170万桶/日，下降20万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $90.64/b in February, representing a gain of $2.29 or 2.59% over the previous month.Prices were pushed higher by US dollar weakness, which encouraged the continued inflow of funds into the paper-oil marketas investors sought to hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Revived geopolitical developments also pressured themarket, although the upward trend was capped by builds in US crude oil and gasoline stocks. The Basket surged into the firstweek of March peaking above the $100/b level amid continued dollar depreciation and a late winter cold snap in NorthAmerica. The OPEC Reference Basket price reached $102.39/b on 13 March. 

World economic growth is forecast at 4.6% in 2008, unchanged from the previous month despite slight downwardrevisions in some regions. In the US, fears of a recession in the first half of the year have been fanned by a bearishemployment report and a drop in retail sales in February as well as falling consumer confidence in early March.Mortgage-related asset write downs and losses reported by some of the world’s biggest financial institutions nowapproach $190 bn. Recent surveys indicate that sentiment appears to be worsening, even outside the US. Separately,inflation picked up in China, with consumer prices increasing at an eleven-year high rate of 8.7% in February, raisingexpectations of a faster revaluation of the yuan as a means of curbing inflation and slowing economic growth. Theforecast for China remains unchanged at 9.9% for 2008. Growth in the US has been revised down 0.3 pp to 1.3% whilethe Euro-zone remains unchanged at 1.8% with signs of resilience mainly coming from the Euro-zone’s largesteconomy, Germany. Japanese growth is also unchanged at 1.2%. 

The weather is once again the main factor in OECD oil demand this winter; the warm winter not only reduced winterproduct consumption, but also triggered power plants to switch to cheaper natural gas. First-quarter OECD oilconsumption is expected to be below earlier forecasts. However, the stronger-than-expected oil demand in non-OECDregions will to some degree offset the downward revision world-wide. World oil demand in 2008 is forecast to grow by1.2 mb/d to average 87.0 mb/d, in line with last month’s estimate. The slowing world economy and warm weather insome parts of the OECD regions dented the demand for winter products. Fourth-quarter OECD demand growth wasrevised down by 0.2 mb/d which was offset by strong growth in Latin America and Africa. The world oil demandgrowth estimate for 2007 remains unchanged at 1.2 mb/d or 1.4%.

  Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 is estimated at 0.6 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. Minordownward adjustments to Canada, Chad and Russia were almost totally offset by upward adjustments in the US, UK andSudan. For 2008, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to average 0.9 mb/d representing a downward revision of 0.2 mb/ddue to revisions to Canada, Mexico, Norway, UK, Brazil, Chad and Russia, which were partially offset by upward adjustmentsto Sudan, Other Western Europe and the USA. In February, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.1 mb/d, an increaseof 82,500 b/d over the previous month. Production in Iraq witnessed significant gains.

  The product market sentiment improved slightly following a recent cold snap in the Atlantic Basin and lower refineryruns due to the seasonal maintenance schedule. Over the coming months, a combination of slowing demand for middledistillates, gasoline stock builds across the globe especially in the US, and high crude oil prices may limit the impact ofseasonal refinery turnarounds on refining margins. However, the potential risk of refinery outages may change thecurrent circumstances of the product market and support both product and crude prices. 

OPEC spot fixtures rose by 4% in February to average 14.9 mb/d, supported by increased fixtures to the East, while nonOPECspot fixtures decreased by 9% to average 7.0 mb/d. OPEC sailings were broadly steady in February, dropping only90,000 b/d from the previous month to stand at 23.3 mb/d. VLCC crude oil freight rates declined on all routes in February,dropping 17% on average on lower activities and ample availability. Suezmax rates decreased in February on the back ofthe bearish market. Product spot freight rates also declined due to limited activities and closed gasoline arbitrage to the USas well as lower refinery runs and margins. 

Preliminary data show that OECD total net oil imports increased 0.7 mb/d in January from the previous month on theback of higher net crude oil and product imports, supported by winter demand. US crude imports fell 400,000 b/d inFebruary to average around 9.8 mb/d while US product imports decreased by 95,000 b/d on the back of lower refineryruns. In February, Japan’s net oil imports declined 158,000 b/d, driven by lower crude imports in anticipation of therefinery maintenance season as well as weak margins. China’s crude oil imports rose in January to average 3.3 mb/dwhile product imports rose 22%. India’s net oil imports dropped 17% in January due to falls in crude oil and productimports, indicating y-o-y growth of 5%. 

US commercial oil stocks fell around 4 mb in February but remained at the same level as a year ago to display an overhang of24 mb with the five-year average. The drop was driven by products, which despite the decline remained above the five-yearaverage supported by gasoline stock builds which reached a 14-year high of 234 mb at the end of the month and increasedfurther in early March. Crude oil stocks continued to rise to move above the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oilinventories offset the gain of the previous month but both crude oil and products were in line with the five-year average.However, Japan’s commercial oil stocks remained stable in January while the deficit with the five-year average narrowed tojust 3 mb whereas preliminary data show that inventories declined sharply in February. 

The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.9 mb/d, an increase of 0.3 mb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.2 mb/d.