2015年11月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR November 2015(2015)

原油价格变动10月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子上涨19美元，至平均45.02美元/桶，这是欧佩克在这一水平上连续第三个月上涨。原油期货以更快的速度上涨，ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨75至49.29美元/桶，Nymex WTI原油期货价格上涨82至46.29美元/桶。随着空头头寸增加，投机者网长度下降。布伦特WTI价差在10月份收窄至接近3美元/桶的平均水平。2015年世界经济增长仍保持在3.1%的适度水平，主要原因是新兴和发展中经济体的持续放缓，以及美国第三季度的低增长，预计2016年全球经济增长将提高至3.4%。美国的增长率在2015年和2016年分别修正为2.4%和2.5%，而经合组织的总增长率在2015年和2016年分别保持在2.0%和2.1%。中国和印度的数据保持不变，分别为6.8%和6.4%，7.4%和7.6%。2015年世界石油需求预计将增长150万桶/日，达到平均9286万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。2016年，世界石油需求增长达到125万桶/日，与上个月的评估一致，达到平均9414万桶/日。2015年，世界石油供应国欧佩克石油供应量预计为5724万桶/日，比上个月的预测增加72万桶/日，没有变化。2016年非欧佩克原油供应量的预测保持不变，显示出下降了13万桶/日，平均为5711万桶/日。预计欧佩克2016年的天然气产量将增加17万桶/日，平均为618万桶/日。10月份，欧佩克的二次资源产量下降了256吨/日，平均为3138万桶/日10月份是世界范围内产能超过800万桶/天的维护季节，全球炼油厂利润率下降，原因是库存高企，预计冬季将温和。受供过于求的压力，美国汽油需求健康，大西洋盆地的产品市场继续疲软。由于汽油和汽油裂损利差的收窄超过了石脑油和燃油的积极表现，亚洲利润率失去了一些动力。油轮市场由于强劲的吨位需求和多个港口出现的延误，脏油轮市场的人气普遍好转。平均来说，现货运价比上个月上涨了19%。由于清洁油轮需求有限，苏伊士东部和西部的清洁油轮运价均下降。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的出海量和固定装置数量均高于上个月，除欧洲港口外，所有报告地区的出海量均有所下降。9月份，商业石油库存几乎保持不变，达到294200万桶。在这一水平上，库存比最近五年的平均水平高出约210MB，其中原油和产品分别显示出约170MB和4000B的盈余。从远期覆盖天数来看，9月份经合组织商业库存为63.0天，较5年平均水平高出约4.5天，2015年欧佩克原油供需平衡仍为2960万桶/日，较上年增加60万桶/日。2016年，预计欧佩克原油需求为3080万桶/日，比本年增加约120万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose 19 to average $45.02/b in October, the third month ina row around this level. Crude oil futures increased at a faster pace with ICE Brentincreasing 75 to $49.29/b and Nymex WTI gaining 82 to stand at $46.29/b. Speculatornet length declined as short positions increased. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed toaverage close to $3/b in October.World EconomyWorld economic growth remains modest at 3.1% in 2015, mainly due to a continuedslowdown in emerging and developing economies, as well as low US growth in the thirdquarter, and global economic growth is expected to improve to 3.4% in 2016. US growthhas been revised to 2.4% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016, while total OECD growth remains at2.0% for 2015 and 2.1% for 2016. Figures for China and India remain unchanged at 6.8%and 6.4%, and 7.4% and 7.6%, respectively.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand is expected to grow by 1.50 mb/d in 2015 to average 92.86 mb/d,unchanged from the previous report. In 2016, world oil demand growth is seen reaching1.25 mb/d, in line with the previous month’s assessment, to average 94.14 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is estimated to average 57.24 mb/d in 2015, an increase of0.72 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s estimation. The forecast for 2016 nonOPECoil supply remained unchanged, showing a contraction of 0.13 mb/d to average57.11 mb/d. OPEC NGLs in 2016 are forecast to increase by 0.17 mb/d to average6.18 mb/d. In October, OPEC production according to secondary sources dropped by256 tb/d to average 31.38 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsDespite the peak maintenance season seen in October with more than 8 mb/d of capacityoffline worldwide, refinery margins fell across the globe due to high inventories andexpectations of a mild winter. Product markets in the Atlantic Basin continued to weakeneven with healthy US gasoline demand, pressured by oversupply. Asian margins lost somemomentum amid a narrowing of gasoline and gasoil crack spreads which outweighed thepositive performance of naphtha and fuel oil.Tanker MarketA general improved sentiment was seen in the dirty tanker market, on the back of strongtonnage demand and delays seen in several ports. On average, spot freight rates rose by19% over the previous month. Clean tanker freight rates declined both East and West ofSuez as clean tanker demand was limited. OPEC sailings and fixtures were higher thanthe month before, while sailings declined in all reported regions, except in European ports.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks remained almost unchanged in September to stand at2,942 mb. At this level, inventories were around 210 mb higher than the latest five-yearaverage, with crude and products indicating surpluses of around 170 mb and 40 mb,respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at63.0 days in September, around 4.5 days above the five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandEstimated demand for OPEC crude in 2015 remains at 29.6 mb/d, an increase of 0.6 mb/dover the previous year. In 2016, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 30.8 mb/d, around1.2 mb/d higher than in the current year and unchanged from the previous report.