2018年1月石油市场月报(2018)MOMR January 2018(2018)

原油价格变动              

去年12月，欧佩克参考篮子（ORB）平均为62.06美元/桶，为2015年6月以来的最高水平。按年度计算，ORB平均为52.43美元/桶，较上年增长29%或11.67美元/桶。石油价格得到了广泛的支持，包括《合作宣言》带来的产量调整、强劲的经济和需求增长以及金融市场的人气。ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.23美元，至64.09美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期货价格上涨1.28美元，至57.95美元/桶。12月份，尼斯布伦特原油期货价格与NYMEX WTI原油期货价格的价差略有收窄，至6.15美元/桶。布伦特、WTI和Dubaimarket结构保持了落后。欧洲和亚洲的糖分/酸分差距扩大，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的糖分/酸分差距缩小。              

世界经济             

 2017年和2018年的全球GDP增长预测仍为3.7%。美国经济增长率在2017年增长2.3%后，于2018年上调至2.6%。2017年欧元区经济增长率升至2.4%，2018年为2.1%。同样，日本在2017年和2018年的增长率都有所提高，目前分别为1.8%和1.6%。在2017年增长6.5%之后，印度的势头有所减弱，导致2018年略微下调至7.2%。预计2017年和2018年，中国经济增速将分别保持在6.8%和6.5%。              

世界石油需求              

2017年全球石油需求增长上调40tb/d，至157mb/d，2017年平均9699mb/d。此次上调主要是由于OECDEurope和中国的数据好于预期。与上个月的报告相比，经过小幅上调后，预计2018年石油需求增长约为153万桶/日，目前全球石油需求预计将达到9851万桶/日。非经合组织经济体将为2018年的需求增长贡献124万桶/日。              

世界石油供应              

2017年非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长率略有下调，目前为7700万桶/日。调整主要是由于17年第4季度实际数据的修订。2018年，非欧佩克国家的供应量增长了16万桶/日，目前为115万桶/日，主要是由于美国和加拿大的增长预期较高。预计2018年欧佩克天然气产量将增长18万桶/日，而上一年的增长率为17万桶/日。据二级消息来源称，欧佩克12月份的产量预计将增加42tb/d，达到平均3242mb/d。              

产品市场和炼油业务             

 随着炼油利润率进一步收窄，大西洋盆地的产品市场继续走低。在美国市场，亏损可能归因于油价上中游走软，抵消了冬季风暴对国内需求的影响，导致柴油厂的盖辛产量下降。在欧洲，由于原油价格上涨和供应方面的压力，炼油厂利润率创下16个月来的新低，产品市场暴跌，整个油价下跌。在亚洲，由于国内需求强劲，产品市场保持健康水平。              

油轮市场              

脏油轮的即期运价在12月份总体上没有显示出明显的上涨。污油罐车的平均运费与上个月相比几乎稳定。超大型油轮运价在本月下降，盈利下降，原因是船舶供应量高。同时，12月份的吨位需求仍然有限，运输延误在高吨位供应的支持下有所下降。苏伊士以西的清洁油轮现货运价上涨，主要是因为该地区的船舶供应趋紧。              

股票变动              

经合组织（OECD）11月份商业石油库存总量下降至293300万桶。在这个水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出约133MB。原油和成品油库存分别比季节标准高出约114MB和190MB。从远期覆盖天数来看，11月份经合组织商业股为61.8天，比最近五年的平均水平高出约1.9天。              

供需平衡              

据估计，2017年欧佩克原油产量为3290万桶/日，比2016年高出60万桶/日。2018年，欧佩克原油预计为3310万桶/日，比上年增加约20万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements

 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) averaged $62.06/b in December, its highest since June 2015. On theyearly basis, the ORB averaged $52.43/b, a gain of 29% or $11.67/b over the previous year. Oil pricesreceived wide-ranging support from production adjustment resulting from the Declaration of Cooperation(DoC), strong economic and demand growth, as well as sentiment in the financial markets. ICE Brentincreased $1.23 at $64.09/b, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.28 at $57.95/b. The spread betweenICE Brent and NYMEX WTI spread narrowed slightly to $6.15/b in December. The Brent, WTI and Dubaimarket structure held backwardation. Sweet/sour differentials widened in Europe and Asia, and narrowed inthe US Gulf Coast.

 World Economy 

The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.7% for both 2017 and 2018. US growth was revised up in 2018to 2.6%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in the Euro-zone was lifted to 2.4% in 2017, followed by 2.1%in 2018. Similarly, Japan’s growth was lifted in both 2017 and 2018 to now stand at 1.8% and 1.6%,respectively. India’s somewhat softening momentum led to a slight downward revision to 7.2% in 2018, aftergrowth of 6.5% in 2017. China’s growth is expected to remain at 6.8% in 2017 and 6.5% in 2018. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand growth in 2017 was revised upward by 40 tb/d to stand at 1.57 mb/d, averaging96.99 mb/d for 2017. The upward revision was broadly a result of better-than-expected data for OECDEurope and China. For 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.53 mb/d, following a marginalupward adjustment compared to last month’s report, with global oil demand now expected to reach98.51 mb/d. Non-OECD economies will contribute 1.24 mb/d of the demand growth expected in 2018. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2017 has been revised marginally lower to now stand at 0.77 mb/d. Theadjustments were mostly due to revisions in the actual data for 4Q17. For 2018, non-OPEC supply growthwas revised up by 0.16 mb/d to now stand at 1.15 mb/d, driven by mostly higher growth expectations for theUS and Canada. OPEC NGLs are also expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d in 2018, compared to 0.17 mb/dgrowth in the previous year. OPEC production in December, according to secondary sources, is expected toincrease by 42 tb/d to average 32.42 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin continued to lose ground as refining margins narrowed further. In theUS market, losses could be attributed to a weakening in the top and middle of the barrels, which offset gainsin the diesel complex, driven by the impact of winter storms on domestic demand. In Europe, product marketplummeted with losses seen across the barrel as refinery margins hit a 16-month low due to rising crudeprices and supply-side pressure. In Asia, product markets remained at healthy levels amid firm domesticdemand. 

Tanker Market

 Dirty tanker spot freight rates in general did not show considerable gains in December. Average dirty tankerspot freight rates was almost stable from the previous month. VLCC freight rates declined during the monthas earnings dropped on the back of high vessels availability. Meanwhile, tonnage demand remained limitedin December and transit delays saw a decline, supported by high tonnage availability. Clean tanker spotfreight rates strengthened West of Suez as a result of a tightening in vessel supply, mainly in theMediterranean. 

Stock Movements

 Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in November to stand at 2,933 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are about 133 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and product stocks indicate a surplus ofaround 114 mb and 19 mb above their seasonal norms, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stand at 61.8 days in November, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-yearaverage.

 Balance of Supply and Demand 

OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.9 mb/d, which is 0.6 mb/d higher than 2016. In 2018, OPEC crude isprojected at 33.1 mb/d, about 0.2 mb/d higher than in the previous year.