2016年10月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR October 2016(2016)

原油价格变动9月份，欧佩克原油参考价格篮子小幅下滑至42.89美元/桶，下跌21美元。ICE布伦特原油价格上涨8美元，至47.24美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI原油价格上涨43美元，至45.23美元/桶。原油价格受到解决全球供应过剩问题的努力和连续抽走因努斯原油库存的支撑。布伦特WTI价差收窄至2.01美元/桶。2016年世界经济增长率保持不变，为2.9%，2017年为3.1%。OECD2016年和2017年的增长预测分别保持在1.6%和1.7%。对中国和印度的预测也保持不变，2016年为6.5%和7.5%，2017年为6.1%和7.2%。巴西和俄罗斯预计2017年将分别增长0.4%和0.7%，今年将分别收缩3.4%和0.6%。2016年世界石油需求量预计将增长124万桶/日，达到平均9440万桶/日，较9月份MOMR的平均增长约10 tb/日，主要是为了反映最新数据。积极修正主要是由于其他亚洲地区的需求高于预期，而向下修正则是由于经合组织美国的业绩低于预期。2017年，世界石油需求预计将增加115万桶/日，与9月MOMR相比不变，达到平均9556万桶/日。继9月MOMR下调至平均5630万桶/日约70吨/日后，2016年世界石油供应国欧佩克石油供应预计将减少0.68万桶/日。这主要是由于基线修正。2017年，非欧佩克国家的供应量略微增加了40 tb/d，增长了24 mb/d，达到平均56.54 mb/d，主要原因是新项目在俄罗斯投产。预计2017年欧佩克天然气产量平均为643万桶/日，比今年增加15万桶/日。根据第二来源的数据，欧佩克原油产量在9月份增加了22万桶/日，达到平均33.39万桶/日。大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务由于美国的利润率下降，受到美国汽油需求季节性放缓的影响，随着驾驶季节的结束，产品市场表现喜忧参半。在欧洲，利润率受到出口机会增加以及流入放缓的支撑，这缓解了该地区的汽油供应过剩。与此同时，亚洲利润率在秋季炼油厂维护季节开始之际，由于区域需求强劲而有所增强。受活动增强的支持，9月份油轮市场脏船现货运价较上月平均上涨。市场人气走强的主要原因是苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的高运费，而超大型油轮的平均运费保持稳定。9月份，迅速的更换和活动增加支撑了运费。然而，由于今年全球船舶供应量大幅增长，高船舶供应量继续打压市场。在清洁油轮市场，苏伊士以东和以西的现货运价仍面临下跌压力。8月份，商业库存总量下降至3094百万桶，比最新的五年平均水平高出322百万桶。原油和产品库存分别出现19100万桶和13100万桶的盈余。在远期保护期内，8月份经合组织商业库存为66.7天，比季节平均水平高出约6.7天。预计2016年欧佩克原油供需平衡为3180万桶/日，比去年增加180万桶/多佛。2017年，预计欧佩克原油需求为3260万桶/日，比今年增加80万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket slipped slightly in September to $42.89/b, down 21.ICE Brent ended up 8 at $47.24/b and NYMEX WTI increased 43 to $45.23/b. Crude oilprices were supported by efforts to address excess global supplies and consecutive draws inUS crude stockpiles. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $2.01/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth remains unchanged at 2.9% for 2016 and 3.1% for 2017. The OECDgrowth forecast remains at 1.6% and 1.7% for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Forecasts for Chinaand India are also unchanged at 6.5% and 7.5% for 2016 and 6.1% and 7.2% for 2017. Braziland Russia are forecast to grow by 0.4% and 0.7% in 2017, following contractions of 3.4% and0.6% this year.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2016 is seen increasing by 1.24 mb/d to average 94.40 mb/d, after amarginal upward revision of around 10 tb/d from the September MOMR, mainly to reflectthe latest data. Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected demand in theOther Asia region, while downward revisions were a result of lower-than-expected performancefrom OECD America. In 2017, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, unchangedfrom the September MOMR, to average 95.56 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.68 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of around 70 tb/d from the September MOMR to average 56.30 mb/d. This is mainly dueto base line revisions. In 2017, non-OPEC supply was revised up slightly by 40 tb/d to showgrowth of 0.24 mb/d to average 56.54 mb/d, mainly due to new projects coming on stream inRussia. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.15 mb/d overthe current year. OPEC crude production, according to secondary sources, increased by0.22 mb/d in September to average 33.39 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin experienced a mixed performance as margins fell in theUS, hit by a seasonal slowing in gasoline demand in the US as the driving season ended. InEurope, margins were supported by higher export opportunities along with slowing inflows,which eased the gasoil oversupply in the region. Meanwhile, Asian margins strengthened on theback of stronger regional demand amid the onset of the autumn refinery maintenance season.Tanker MarketDirty vessel spot freight rates increased on average in September compared to the previousmonth, supported by enhanced activity. The stronger sentiment was mainly driven by higherfreight rates for Suezmax and Aframax, while average VLCC freight rates remained stable.Prompt replacements and increased activity supported freight rates in September. However,high vessel availability continued to weigh on the market amid considerable growth in the globalfleet this year. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates remained under pressure withdeclines in both East and West of Suez.Stock MovementsOECD total commercial stocks fell in August to stand at 3,094 mb, some 322 mb above thelatest five-year average. Crude and product inventories showed surpluses of 191 mb and131 mb, respectively. In days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in August stood at66.7 days, some 6.7 days higher than the seasonal average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.8 mb/d, an increase of 1.8 mb/dover last year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.6 mb/d, a rise of 0.8 mb/d overthe current year.