2004年7月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR July 2004(2004)

6月份中国工业产出和投资的较低增长率表明，信贷和投资限制的收紧正在影响一些经济部门。零售额或出口额几乎没有疲软的迹象。中国当局可能会推迟进一步的措施，比如提高利率，直到今年夏天末第二季度的数据出来。到目前为止，中国经济增速仍在稳步放缓，预计2004年中国经济增速将保持在8.8%不变。

由于第二季度消费者支出疲软，美国对2004年GDP增长的预测有所下降。欧元区正在复苏，但主要集中在那些受益于强劲海外需求的工业部门。由于缺乏持续增长的失业率，欧洲的消费支出继续受到抑制。相比之下，日本经济正经历国内需求和出口需求共同支撑的平衡复苏。然而，如果中国经济衰退加速，日本将在2005年遭受重创。

经合组织地区2004年的预测没有变化，国内生产总值预计将增长3.5%。美国和日本的预测分别为4.5%和4.0%，增幅为0.2%。对欧元区的预测不变，为1.8%。对中国和俄罗斯的预测也分别稳定在8.8%和7%。对非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲（不包括日本）和发展中国家的预测略高，对2004年世界经济的国内生产总值增长预测不变，为4.8%。

2005年的预测意味着，在2003年开始的经济大幅复苏之后，经济增长率将回归正常水平。经合组织地区预计2005年将增长3%，美国经济将达到3.7%。预计2005年欧元区经济增长率将增至2.2%，但日本经济可能放缓，仅增长2%，因为中国和美国需求下降可能限制出口。预计发展中经济体2005年的增长速度也将放缓。据预测，整个世界经济增长率为4.3%，低于2004年的估计值，但大大高于20年来约3.3%的平均水平。

继5月份创下36.27美元/桶的历史月度高点之后，欧佩克参考篮子在六月下跌了1.66美元/桶，跌幅为4.6%。然而，6月份的平均值为34.61美元/桶，是过去22年中该月的最高平均值，而2004年迄今的平均值为32.59美元/桶，比2003年的平均值高出近16%，即4.48美元/桶。在6月份的第一周，该篮子的平均值为36.49美元/桶，下跌了21美元/桶，跌幅为0.6%，随后第二周更为明显的下跌1.94美元/桶，跌幅为5.3%，至34.55美元/桶。下跌的速度在第三周有所放缓，但该篮子仍下跌了30/b或0.9%，至平均34.25美元/桶。到6月底，该篮子开始出现一些复苏迹象，将前一周的大部分亏损回升至平均34.54美元/桶。然后在截至7月1日的一周内，该篮子又缩减了1.28美元/桶，至平均33.26美元/桶。在截至7月15日的一周内，该股强劲上涨逾2.5美元/桶，当时该篮子指数平均为35.88美元/桶。

对美国持续汽油短缺的担忧最近有所缓解，导致2004年6月汽油价格大幅下跌。这一转变使市场参与者更加看跌，并导致他们平仓多头头寸。在这些事态发展之后，6月份成品油价格全面下跌，与原油价格下降趋势一致，并降低了所有主要市场的炼油厂利润率。不过，7月初，由于汽油库存减少，原油和成品油价格上涨，市场情绪发生变化。

2004年6月，欧佩克石油产量的增加并没有反映在欧佩克地区的估计现货供应量上，该地区的现货供应量下降了278万桶/日，至1314万桶/日。欧佩克在全球现货租赁中所占的份额下降了约2%，降至63%，比一年前增加了14%。全球现货供应意外下降，对6月份原油运价几乎没有影响，6月份原油运价在吨位供应紧张和油轮需求量高的背景下维持了上月的涨幅。成品油油轮与原油市场的走势不同，因为一些航线的表现并不能让船东满意。预计今年世界经济增长率为4.8%，目前石油总需求预计将增长210万桶/日或2.67%，达到平均8090万桶/日，较上一个《海洋哺乳动物报告》中的数字上升了20万桶/日。在世界经济增长4.3%，恢复正常气候条件的基础上，初步预测2005年世界石油需求为167万桶/日至8256万桶/日，以及中国和美国强劲而适度的消费增长。随着有关关键因素的新信息的提供，本初步评估将作进一步调整。

根据第二来源，欧佩克6月份的原油产量估计为2892万桶/日，比5月份的数据高出71万桶/日。据估计，2004年非欧佩克石油供应量为5002万桶/日，比2003年的4866万桶/日高出136万桶/日。预计2004年非欧佩克石油供应将达到5121万桶/日，比2004年的预测增加119万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口量估计分别为556MB/d和646MB/d，预计2004年和2005年将分别增至738MB/d和788MB/d。

在2004年5月28日至7月2日期间，美国商业股继续增加2280万股，达到96640万股，增长率为80万股/日。在截至7月9日的一周内，美国商业股微涨0.40亿股，至9668万股，同比顺差升至1600万股，涨幅1.7%。欧洲石油库存总量扭转了过去两个月的上升趋势，下降860万桶至106690万桶，降幅为30万桶/日。5月底，日本商业石油库存扭转了上个月的下降趋势，季节性增长810万桶至16840万桶，降幅为30万桶/日。

尽管一些经合组织国家的初步库存数据显示，2004年第2季度的库存进一步增加，但目前的余额表明，供应量超过了需求量290万桶/日，仍有相当数量的库存没有说明。这可以归因于非经合组织国家的库存数据可能也有所增加，以及5月底已经显示出增长势头的水上石油。报告不足和/或未报告的需求也可能造成这种差异。

Lower growth rates for industrial output and investment in China for June provided evidence that tighter credit andinvestment restrictions are affecting some sectors of the economy. There is little sign of weakness in retail sales orexports. The Chinese authorities may delay further measures — such as raising interest rates — until second quarterdata is available towards the end of the summer. Thus far the slowdown continues at a measured pace and theforecast growth rate of the Chinese economy is unchanged at 8.8% for 2004. 

The US GDP growth forecast for 2004 has been reduced as a result of weaker consumer spending in the secondquarter. Euro-zone recovery is under way but is concentrated in those industrial sectors which benefit from strongoverseas demand. European consumer spending continues to be held back by a lack of sustained growth inemployment. In contrast, the Japanese economy is experiencing a balanced recovery supported by both domestic andexport demand. Nevertheless, Japan will suffer in 2005 if the downturn in China gathers speed. 

The 2004 forecast for the OECD region is unchanged and GDP is expected to grow by 3.5%. The forecast for theUSA is lower at 4.5% and the Japanese forecast is now 4.0%, an increase of 0.2%. The forecast for the Euro-zone isunchanged at 1.8%. The forecasts for China and Russia are also held steady at 8.8% and 7% respectively. Theforecasts for Africa, Latin America, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countries as a whole are slightly higher.The GDP growth forecast for the world economy is unchanged at 4.8% for 2004. 

The forecasts for 2005 imply a return to more normal growth rates following the sharp economic recovery whichbegan in 2003. The OECD region is expected to grow by 3% in 2005 with the US economy achieving 3.7%. TheEuro-zone growth rate is forecast to increase to 2.2% in 2005 but the Japanese economy may slow, growing by only2% as exports may be limited by lower Chinese and American demand. Developing economies are also expected togrow more slowly in 2005. The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.3%, a lower rate than theestimate for 2004 but substantially above the twenty-year average of about 3.3%. 

Following the all time monthly high of $36.27/b registered for May, the OPEC Reference Basket fell in June by$1.66/b or 4.6%. Nevertheless, the June average of $34.61/b is the highest average for that month in the last22 years, while the year-to-date average for 2004 of $32.59/b exceeds the 2003 yearly average by almost 16%, or$4.48/b. In the first week of June, the Basket lost 21/b or 0.6% to average $36.49/b, followed by a morepronounced fall of $1.94/b or 5.3% to $34.55/b in the second week. The pace of the fall decelerated by the thirdweek but the Basket still shed another 30/b or 0.9% to average $34.25/b. By the end of June, the Basket began toshow some signs of recovery, gaining back most of the previous week’s loss to average $34.54/b. Then it retrenchedby $1.28/b to average $33.26/b in the week ending 1 July. That was more than offset by the strong gain of more than$2.5/b in the week ending 15 July when the Basket averaged $35.88/b. 

Concerns about a sustained gasoline shortage in the USA, which have driven the upward trend in petroleumproducts over the last few months, have eased recently resulting in a significant gasoline price fall in June 2004.This shift has made market players more bearish and led them to liquidate long positions. Following thesedevelopments, product prices fell across the board in June, matching the downward trend in crude prices andreducing refinery margins in all major markets. However, in early July market sentiment changed due to a smalldraw on gasoline stocks, improving crude and product prices. 

Increased OPEC oil production in June 2004 was not reflected in estimated OPEC area spot fixtures which have showna drop of 2.78 mb/d to 13.14 mb/d. OPEC’s share of global spot-chartering declined by about 2% to stand at 63%, anincrease of 14% from a year ago. The unexpected decline in global spot fixtures did little to constrain crude oil freightrates in June which sustained the previous month’s gains on the back of tight tonnage availability and high tankerdemand. The product tanker moved differently from the crude oil market as the performance on some routes did notsatisfy owners. With a projected 4.8% world economic expansion for the current year, total oil demand is now estimated to grow by2.1 mb/d or 2.67% to average 80.9 mb/d, representing an upward revision of 0.2 mb/d with respect to the figurepresented in the previous MOMR. A preliminary forecast for world oil demand of 1.67 mb/d to 82.56 mb/d in theyear 2005 has been drawn on the basis of a world economic expansion of 4.3%, a return to normal weatherconditions, and robust yet more moderate consumption growth in China and USA. This preliminary assessment isindeed subject to further adjustment as new information becomes available on key factors such as the economicgrowth outlook, weather conditions, unforeseen social and geopolitical events and variations in crude and productprices.

OPEC crude oil production in June, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.92 mb/d, 0.71 mb/d above therevised May figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 50.02 mb/d, which is 1.36 mb/d higher than the48.66 mb/d estimated 2003 figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 51.21 mb/d, an increase of1.19 mb/d over the 2004 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.46 mb/drespectively and are expected to rise to 7.38 mb/d and 7.88 mb/d in 2004 and 2005 respectively. 

US commercial onland stocks continued to increase adding 22.8 mb to reach 966.4 mb at a rate of 0.8 mb/d during theperiod 28 May-2 July 2004. In the week ending 9 July, US commercial stocks rose slightly 0.4 mb to 966.8 mb, liftingthe y-o-y surplus to 16 mb or 1.7%. Total oil stocks in Europe reversed the upward trend observed over the last twomonths falling 8.6 mb to 1,066.9 mb at a rate of 0.3 mb/d. At the end of May, commercial oil stocks in Japanreversed the downward trend observed last month, increasing seasonally by 8.1 mb to 168.4 mb at a rate of 0.3 mb/d. 

Although preliminary stock data for some OECD countries show a further increase in 2Q 2004, the current balanceindicates 2.9 mb/d supply in excess of demand, which still leaves a significant amount unaccounted for. This couldbe attributed to stock data from non-OECD countries that may also have increased, as well as oil-on-water, whichhad already shown a build at the end of May. Underreported and/or unreported demand might also have contributedto this discrepancy.