2005年10月石油市场月报(2005)MOMR October 2005(2005)

第三季度数据显示，美国和世界经济在飓风卡特里纳和丽塔的影响前强劲增长。预计2005年对美国经济增长率的直接影响将仅为0.1%，明年将出现大量重建支出。美国对2005年GDP增长的预测已经提高到3.5%，对2006年的预测已经提高到3.1%。正如我们在之前的报告中所强调的，金融市场的主要担忧已经从增长转向通胀。整体通胀和核心通胀上升的前景表明，2006年美国、欧洲和亚洲将采取收紧货币政策的举措。在公布了出色的第二季度数据后，日本对2005年经济增长的预测被修正为2.1%。预计2006年将进一步稳定增长1.8%。对欧元区的预测没有变化，预计欧元区2005年和明年分别增长1.1%和1.5%。发展中国家的增长预测在2005年和2006年分别修正为5.4%和5.0%。尤其是非洲，看来将从石油出口经济的强劲增长中受益。2005年世界经济的预期增长率已增至4.2%，明年将增长4.0%。2006年的谨慎展望反映了商业信心、贸易和制造业指标的改善所产生的积极影响与能源价格高企对实际收入的持续影响之间的平衡，特别是在亚洲燃料补贴减少的国家。这在很大程度上还将取决于美国经济在利率上升的情况下的弹性，因为美国需求下降也可能会减缓对中国和其他亚洲经济体的出口和投资。由于信号不一，欧佩克9月份的参考篮子经历了一个波动的月份。飓风卡特丽娜重新唤起人们对去年飓风伊凡对墨西哥湾石油业务的影响的担忧。然而，国际能源机构对战略原油和成品油库存的积极反应，以及欧佩克迅速提供石油供应，帮助提振了市场。篮子平均价格本月仅上涨6美元，至57.82美元/桶。篮子价格在10月份继续下滑，上半月的平均价格为55.55美元/桶，较上一个月平均价格下跌2.33美元或4%，10月14日为54.49美元/桶。由于卡特里娜飓风和里塔飓风，美国炼油厂急剧停工，加上美国墨西哥湾沿岸天然气产量下降，以及对冬季产品短缺的担忧，提振了产品价格，并导致不同基准原油的炼油利润率在9月份大幅飙升。由于近期需求放缓（尤其是美国）和技术性抛售，成品油市场和原油市场失去了部分力量，但成品油市场仍基本处于空头状态，未来几周价格可能反弹。由于美国约180万桶/日的炼油厂利用率仍处于下线状态，而且由于法国最近正在进行罢工，目前成品油市场的空头跌幅进一步加深，为成品油和原油价格提供了进一步支撑。欧佩克的现货租船总量激增近230万桶/日，平均为148万桶/日，增幅为18%。中东国家是增长的主要贡献者，为190万桶/日，增幅为84%，主要来自西行固定设施，较上月增加了100万桶/日，增幅为90%。来自欧佩克地区的航行量下降了0.72百万桶/日至2470百万桶/日，但仍比去年同期高出170百万桶/日。油轮市场从夏季的沉寂中恢复过来，原油现货运价在冬季前有所改善，而产品运价则大幅上涨，特别是在加勒比海和大西洋盆地，由于在卡特里娜和丽塔飓风之后预订量激增，他们达到了自2000年底以来的最高水平。尽管持续高企的油价已开始侵蚀需求，但从积极的一面看，目前的经济前景仍保持健康，为4.2%。根据最近四周的平均值，美国汽油消费量在最新的环境影响评估数据中大幅下降2.6%，这证明了一些市场观点的正确性，也应该看看今年前八个月汽油需求的年度趋势，即9.15百万桶/日，而去年同期为9.11百万桶/日。此外，任何仅仅基于过去四周平均值的预测都可能是误导性的，特别是如果这一时期包括卡特里娜飓风之后的事件。本年度世界石油需求增长已下调20万桶/日，目前估计为120万桶/日，同比增长1.4%，年均增长8330万桶/日。2006年，全球石油需求增长预计接近150万桶/日，年均增长8470万桶/日，同比增长1.8%。2005年非欧佩克石油供应预计将增加比上一年减少了49万桶/日，比上个月的数字减少了13万桶/日。包括欧佩克天然气和非常规石油，今年非欧佩克的产量将比2004年增加70万桶/日。按季度计算，第三和第四季度非欧佩克石油供应量分别减少了12.7万桶/日和33.1万桶/日。对美国墨西哥湾和英国生产的负面修订占大部分的调整，部分抵消了在澳大利亚和一些发展中国家的上调。2006年，在上个月的报告向上修正了90000桶/日之后，非运营线圈的供应预计将比今年增加127万桶/日。包括欧佩克液化天然气和非常规石油，非欧佩克的石油供应可能比2005年增加160万桶/日。9月欧佩克石油产量估计为3034万桶/日。9月2日至30日，美国商业石油库存（原油和石油产品总量，不包括SPR）下降470万桶或0.17万桶/日，至100490万桶。这一水平比去年高出3.4%，比五年平均水平高出2%。9月份，16欧元（欧盟加挪威）的石油库存总量连续第三个月出现增长，增加290万欧元或0.10万欧元/日，达到113600万欧元。这一水平比一年前高出37.1兆字节或3.4%。日本8月份的石油库存总量进一步温和增长，增加420万桶，即14万桶/日，达到19090万桶，这是2004年11月以来的最高水平。2005年的供需平衡有所下调，以反映较低的需求和较低的供应预期。目前预测，2005年欧佩克原油的需求为2870万桶/日，较2004年增加50万桶/日，但较之前预测的低20万桶/日。据估计，2005年第四季度的原油需求量为3000万桶/日，比以前减少了300000桶/日，同时也降低了目前欧佩克的原油产量（3030万桶/日）。就欧佩克产能而言，考虑到供需平衡、由此产生的欧佩克原油需求水平和预计产能，欧佩克的闲置产能目前估计在2005年第四季度平均约为8.5%，而2004年同期为4.9%。2006年，欧佩克原油需求预计平均为2850万桶/日，较上月的报告下调约40万桶/日。季度分布显示，目前预计欧佩克原油第一季度需求为2970万桶/日，第二季度为2770万桶/日，第三季度为2800万桶/日，第四季度为2880万桶/日。

Third-quarter data suggests that the US and the world economy were growing strongly before the impact of hurricanesKatrina and Rita. The direct effect on the growth rate of the US economy in 2005 is now expected to be a reduction of only0.1% and next year will see substantial spending on rebuilding. The US GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been raised to3.5% and the forecast for 2006 to 3.1%. The major concern of financial markets has shifted from growth to inflation, as wehave highlighted in previous reports. The prospect of higher headline and core inflation suggests that 2006 will see moves totighten monetary policies in the USA, Europe and Asia. Following excellent second-quarter data, the Japanese growth forecast for 2005 has been revised up to 2.1%. Further steadygrowth of 1.8% is expected in 2006. There has been no change in the forecast for the Euro-zone which is expected to growby 1.1% in 2005 and by 1.5% next year. Growth forecasts for the Developing Countries have been revised up to 5.4% in2005 and 5.0% in 2006. Africa in particular looks set to benefit from the strong growth of oil exporting economies. The forecast growth rate for the world economy in 2005 has been increased to 4.2%, followed by growth of 4.0% next year.The cautious outlook for 2006 reflects a balance between the positive influence of improving business confidence, trade andmanufacturing indicators and the ongoing impact of high energy prices on real incomes, especially in Asian countries wherefuel subsidies have been reduced. Much will also depend on the resilience of the US economy in the face of rising interestrates since lower US demand might also slow exports and investment in China and other Asian economies. The OPEC Reference Basket in September experienced a volatile month due to mixed signals. Hurricane Katrina revivedfears of a replay of last year’s impact of Hurricane Ivan on oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the IEA’semergency response of strategic crude and product stocks together with OPEC’s prompt provision of oil supplies helped toease the market. The Basket average rose only 6 for the month to $57.82/b. The Basket continued to slip in October withthe average for the first half of the month at $55.55/b, representing a loss of $2.33 or 4% from the previous monthly average,and stood at $54.49/b on 14 October. Sharp refinery outages in the USA as a result of the hurricanes Katrina and Rita, along with the drop in natural gas outputfrom the US Gulf Coast and fears of product shortfalls in the winter season, have lifted product prices and caused refinerymargins of different benchmark crudes to surge sharply in September. Due to the recent slowdown in demand, particularly inthe USA, and technical sell-offs, the product markets along with the crude oil market have lost part of their strength, butproduct markets are still fundamentally short and prices could rebound in the next few weeks. As about 1.8 mb/d of USrefinery utilization is still off-line, and because of the recent ongoing strike in France, the current short-fall in the productmarkets deepens, providing further support for product and crude oil prices. Total OPEC spot chartering surged by almost 2.3 mb/d or 18% to average 14.8 mb/d. Middle Eastern countries were themain contributors to the growth with 1.9 mb/d or 84%, coming essentially from the westbound fixtures, which increased by1 mb/d or 90% compared to the previous month. Sailings from the OPEC area fell by 0.72 mb/d to 24.7 mb/d, but remained1.7 mb/d higher than a year earlier. The tanker market recovered from its summer lull with spot freight rates for crude oilshowing some improvements ahead of winter, while freight rates for products increased significantly, especially in theCaribbean and the Atlantic Basin, where they hit their highest levels since late 2000 as a result of a spike in bookingsfollowing hurricanes Katrina and Rita. While persistently high oil prices have begun to erode demand, on the positive side, the economic outlook for the presentyear remains healthy at 4.2%. Some of the market views vindicated by the substantial 2.6% drop in US gasolineconsumption in the latest EIA figures, based on the last four-week average, should also take a look at the yearly trend forgasoline demand for the first eight months of this year, which was 9.15 mb/d compared to 9.11 mb/d in the same period lastyear. Moreover, any prediction based solely on the last four-week average might be misleading, especially if the periodencompasses the post-Katrina episode. World oil demand growth for the present year has been revised down by 0.2 mb/dand is now estimated at 1.2 mb/d, representing 1.4 % y-o-y growth, for a yearly average of 83.3 mb/d. As for 2006, globaloil demand growth is projected to stand close to 1.5 mb/d or 1.8 % for a yearly average of 84.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to increase 0.49 mb/d over the previous year, following a downward revision of113,000 b/d to last month’s figures. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, non-OPEC output this year shouldincrease 0.7 mb/d over 2004. On a quarterly basis, non-OPEC supply has been revised down in the third and fourth quarterby 127,000 b/d and 331,000 b/d respectively. Negative revisions to US Gulf of Mexico and UK production account for thebulk of the adjustments partly offset by upward revisions in Australia and in several Developing Countries. In 2006, nonOPECoil supply is expected to increase 1.27 mb/d over the current year, following an upward revision of 90,000 b/d fromlast month’s report. Including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils, non-OPEC supply is likely to increase 1.6 mb/dfrom 2005. September OPEC output is estimated at 30.34 mb/d. US commercial oil inventories (total crude and petroleum products excluding SPR) during 2-30 September showed a drawof 4.7 mb or 0.17 mb/d to 1,004.90 mb. This level was 3.4% higher than last year’s figure and 2% above the five-yearaverage. Total oil inventories in Eur-16 (EU plus Norway) in September continued to show builds for the third consecutive month, increasing by 2.9 mb or 0.10 mb/d to stand at 1,136.0 mb. This level is 37.1 mb or 3.4% higher than that registereda year ago. Total oil inventories in Japan showed a further moderate build in August, rising by 4.2 mb or 0.14 mb/d to standat 190.9 mb, a level not seen since November 2004. The supply/demand balance for 2005 has been revised down to reflect lower demand and lower supply expectations.Demand for OPEC crude in 2005 (a-b) is now forecast at 28.7 mb/d, an increase of 0.5 mb/d from 2004 but 200,000 b/dlower than projected earlier. The crude required for the fourth quarter of 2005 is now estimated to be 30 mb/d, whichis 300,000 b/d lower than before as well as the current OPEC crude production (30.3 mb/d). In terms of OPECcapacity, taking into account the supply/demand balance, the resulting required OPEC crude production levels andprojected production capacity, OPEC’s spare capacity is now estimated to average around 8.5% in the fourth quarter of2005, compared to 4.9% in the same period of 2004. For 2006, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average28.5 mb/d, a downward revision of around 400,000 b/d versus last month’s report. The quarterly distribution shows thatdemand for OPEC crude is now expected to be 29.7 mb/d in the first quarter, 27.7 mb/d in the second, 28 mb/d in the thirdand 28.8 mb/d in the fourth.