2004年5月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR May 2004(2004)

美国经济复苏在整个经济领域继续扩大，在这一周期中首次创造了可观的就业增长。随着软件和设备支出增长尤其迅速，消费者和企业信心指数一致乐观。在美国，通货紧缩不再是一种风险。事实上，4月份核心通胀率同比上升至1.8%，核心个人消费平减指数上升2%，可能会在6月份引发更高的利率。

欧元区一季度数据最终证实，经济正在稳步复苏。欧元区第一季度整体增长率为2.4%，法国表现最佳。德国消费的持续疲软是对欧洲经济复苏可持续性的主要威胁。日本继续受益于中国的强劲增长，第一季度的经济增长可能在4%左右，比2003年第四季度显著的6.4%有所下降。出口和商业投资继续引领日本经济复苏。

经合组织地区2004年的预测增长了0.2%，国内生产总值预计增长3.4%。美国的预测增长了0.25%至4.7%，而日本的预测目前为2.9%，增长了0.1%。欧元区的预测不变，为1.8%。对中国的预测提高到8.8%，对俄罗斯的预测提高到7%。据预测，2004年世界经济总体增长率为4.7%，比上月增长0.2%。

4月欧佩克参考一揽子价格为32.35美元/桶，仅次于1990年10月登记的34.32美元/桶的历史最高月平均价格。自2004年初以来，篮子的持续强势，加上去年3月和4月宣布的下跌，大大扩大了2004年迄今相对于2003年的平均水平。今年4月30日至2003年同期，这一篮子原油的平均价格为31.13美元/桶，而2003年同期为29.02美元/桶。5月初，在原油价格飙升之后，在5月6日的周末，这一篮子原油的平均价格又上涨了5%或1.66美元/桶，至34.91美元/桶，随后一周又上涨了1.25美元/桶，至36.16美元/桶。截至5月17日，受地缘政治、安全担忧、美国汽油形势、对石油产品的高需求和投机活动猖獗等因素影响，该篮子的日均价格已升至37.72美元/桶，比历史高点低约1.20美元。

4月份，由于炼油厂供应减少，产品需求普遍强劲，大部分平均产品价格大幅上涨，这主要是由于维修周转所致。因此，全球所有主要炼油中心的炼油经济都显著改善。

4月份，预计欧佩克地区的现货供应量下降了305万桶/日，达到123.6万桶/日。由于复活节假期、季节性需求放缓以及欧佩克原油产量的小幅下降（主要影响中东地区的长途现货供应量，尤其是西行航线），欧佩克现货供应量下降，主要原因是缺乏活动。从中东到远东和西部的长途货物VLCC运价连续第二个月呈下降趋势，分别下降10个百分点至WS91和12个百分点至WS83。成品油船市场经历了与原油相似的模式。

2003年世界石油需求估计数增加了12万桶/日，主要是由于发展中国家和其他欧洲的消费数据出现了较大幅度的上升，加上西欧的消费数据略有上升。中国是预测2004年石油需求增长的最大贡献者，随着更多的实际消费证据的出现，中国的经济增长继续保持快速增长。在2004年预测的需求增量（目前为180万桶/日）中，有24万桶/日的增长，其中近190万桶/日是中国造成的。据预测，2004年世界石油需求总量为8040万桶/日，增长率为2.29%，创七年来新高。

根据第二来源，欧佩克4月份的原油产量估计为2805万桶/日，比3月份的修正数字低26万桶/日。然而，5月份的提名和油轮的变动表明，产量要高得多，欧佩克成员国正在考虑进一步增产，作为它们对市场现实作出反应的承诺的一部分。2003年非欧佩克石油供应量估计为4867万桶/日，比2002年的4776万桶/日高出91万桶/日。预计2004年非欧佩克石油供应量将达到5001万桶/日，比2003年的估计数增加134万桶/日，2002年和2003年的FSU净出口分别为556万桶/日和646万桶/日，2004年增至736万桶/日。

美国商业地产股连续第二个月保持上涨趋势，以50万桶/日的速度增长1420万桶，至92710万桶。原油和成品油都对这一增长做出了贡献，分别增长670万桶和750万桶。在16欧元区，截至4月底，总库存以0.25万桶/日的速度下降750万桶，连续第三个月下降至106280万桶。原油和成品油都对这一增长做出了贡献，分别下降350万桶至45760万桶和400万桶至6052万桶。在印度，仅商业和石油类股3月份连续第三个月保持下降趋势，以22万桶/日的速度下降670万桶，至163.0万桶。主要产品总量是造成这一下降的主要因素，下降了660万桶至5480万桶，而原油库存几乎保持在10820万桶不变。

虽然2004年第一季度全球库存总量略有增加，但余额表明增加了100万桶，使80多万桶/日的库存下落不明。这可归因于发展中国家的未报告库存和数据的潜在修订。鉴于目前欧佩克的产量，修正后的世界石油平衡仍明显高于正常的季节性石油库存，这一观点也得到了其他既定来源的认同。

The US recovery continues to broaden throughout the economy, producing sizeable gains in employment for the firsttime in this cycle. Indicators of consumer and business sentiment are uniformly optimistic with software and equipmentspending growing particularly rapidly. Disinflation is no longer a risk in the USA. Indeed, the rise in the April coreinflation rate to 1.8% year-on-year and the 2% rise in the core personal consumption deflator may trigger higher interestrates in June. 

First quarter Euro-zone data confirmed at last that a steady economic recovery is under way. Overall Euro-zone growth was2.4% in the first quarter with France showing the best performance. The continued weakness of German consumption is themajor threat to the sustainability of the European recovery. Japan continues to benefit from the strong growth of China.Economic growth for the first quarter was probably in the region of 4%, a reduction from the remarkable 6.4% achieved inthe final quarter of 2003. Exports and business investment continue to lead the Japanese recovery. 

The 2004 forecast for the OECD region has been raised by 0.2% and GDP is expected to grow by 3.4%. The USAforecast has been increased by 0.25% to 4.7% while that of Japan is now 2.9%, a rise of 0.1%. The forecast for the Eurozoneis unchanged at 1.8%. The forecast for China has been increased to 8.8% and the forecast for Russia has been raisedto 7%. The world economy as a whole is forecast to grow at 4.7% in 2004, an increase of 0.2% from last month. 

The $32.35/b April’s OPEC Reference Basket price is second only to the all-time high monthly average of $34.32/bregistered in October 1990. The constant strength of the Basket since the beginning of 2004, combined with thepronounced drop seen in March and April of last year, considerably widened the 2004 year’s year-to-date average withrespect to 2003. The Basket averaged $31.13/b to 30 April of this year versus $29.02/b during the same period in 2003.Early in May, following a surge in crude prices, the Basket added another 5% or $1.66/b to average $34.91/b in the weekended 6 May and rose by another $1.25/b to $36.16/b in the following week. As of 17 May, the Basket’s daily averagehad risen to $37.72/b, or about $1.20 below the all-time high, driven primarily by geopolitics, security concerns, thegasoline situation in the USA, high demand for petroleum products and rampant speculation. 

Most average product prices enjoyed considerable gains in April, induced by prevailing robust product demand amidcurtailed refinery supply, which was largely due to maintenance turnarounds. Consequently, refining economiesimproved significantly in all main global refining centres. 

In April, estimated OPEC area spot fixtures showed a decline of 3.05 mb/d to stand at 12.36 mb/d. OPEC spot charteringretreated mostly on a lack of activity due to the Easter holidays, slower seasonal demand and a slight fall in OPEC crudeoil production that affected mainly Middle Eastern long haul spot fixtures, especially on the westbound route. VLCCfreight rates for long-haul cargoes from the Middle East to the Far East and to the west continued their downward trendfor the second consecutive month, declining by 10 points to WS91 and by 12 points to WS83 respectively. The producttanker market experienced a similar pattern to that of crude. 

The 2003 world oil demand estimate has been raised by 0.12 mb/d mostly due to relatively substantial upward revisionsin the consumption data of Developing Countries and Other Europe complemented by a moderate rise in that of WesternEurope. China is the top contributor to forecast 2004 oil demand growth and has continued to register ever fasterincremental growth as more evidence on actual consumption becomes available. Out of the 0.24 mb/d rise in the forecast2004 demand increment, which now stands at 1.80 mb/d, nearly 0.190 mb/d is attributable to China. Total 2004 world oildemand is now forecast at 80.40 mb/d, registering growth at a seven-year high of 2.29%. 

OPEC crude oil production in April, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.05 mb/d, 0.26 mb/d lower than therevised March figure. However, May nominations and tanker movements indicate much higher volumes, and OPECMember Countries are considering further production increases as part of their commitment to respond to marketrealities. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is estimated at 48.67 mb/d, which is 0.91 mb/d above the 47.76 mb/d estimatedfor 2002. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 50.01 mb/d, an increase of 1.34 mb/d over the 2003 estimate.Net FSU exports are estimated at 5.56 mb/d for 2002 and 6.46 mb/d for 2003, rising to 7.36 mb/d in 2004. 

US commercial on-land stocks continued their upward trend for the second consecutive month increasing 14.20 mb at arate of 0.5 mb/d to 927.1 mb. Both crude oil and products contributed to this build, rising 6.7 mb and 7.5 mb respectively.In Eur-16, at the end of April, total stocks fell 7.5 mb at a rate of 0.25 mb/d to 1,062.8 mb for the third successive month.Both crude and products contributed to the draw, decreasing 3.5 mb to 457.6 mb and 4.0 mb to 605.2 mb respectively. InJapan, commercial onland oil stocks continued their downward trend in March for the third consecutive month,decreasing 6.7 mb at a rate of 0.22 mb/d to 163.0 mb. Total major products were the main contributor to this draw,declining by 6.6 mb to 54.8 mb, while crude oil stocks remained almost unchanged at 108.2 mb. 

Although the total world stocks saw a slight increase in 1Q 2004, the balance indicates an increase of 1 mb, which leavesmore than 800,000 b/d unaccounted for. This could be attributed to unreported stocks in developing countries andpotential revisions in data. In light of current OPEC production, the revised world oil balance is still significantly abovethe normal seasonal stock-build, a view that is also shared by other established sources.