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六个月后：评估伊朗核协议的执行情况SIX MONTHS LATER: ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL 六个月后：评估伊朗核协议的执行情况SIX MONTHS LATER: ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

六个月后：评估伊朗核协议的执行情况SIX MONTHS LATER: ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

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  • 更新时间：2021-09-19
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伊朗核协议仍然存在争议，主要是因为围绕它是否向各方提供了承诺的利益的问题挥之不去，其次是因为对它在华盛顿和德黑兰是如何谈判和宣传的仍有不满。尽管如此，它已经取得了很大成就，延长了伊朗将其核计划转向生产核武器材料所需的时间表；建立了机制，通过这些机制，世界将在今后20至25年内对核计划有更大的透明度；并解除了对伊朗大部分经济活动的制裁。尽管核武器的实施基本上是按计划进行的，但制裁的解除却不能这样说。尽管在法律上，五常加一和联合国安理会在该协议下所需做的一切都已经完成，但制裁减免的实际执行却一直在停止。造成这种局面的原因是多方面的，但大体上有三个方面：低油价；伊朗自身的内部监管和官僚问题；以及美国对伊朗及其银行的金融制裁的残余影响。并非所有这些问题都与《联合能力行动纲领》的执行直接相关，但对这些问题的关注不足将损害该协议，就像它们是该协议的核心条款一样。 关于低油价问题，美国或其伙伴国在解决伊朗困难方面无能为力。然而，关于伊朗的内部问题和制裁的残余影响，伊朗和美国可以做更多的工作。

The Iran nuclear deal remains controversial, primarily because of lingering questions around whether it is delivering the benefits promised to all sides and, secondarily, because of residual complaints about how it was negotiated and advertised in Washington and in Tehran. Despite this, it has already achieved much, having lengthened the timetable that would be required for Iran to turn its nuclear program toward the production of material for nuclear weapons; established the mechanisms through which the world would have greater transparency into the nuclear program for the next twenty to twenty-five years; and relieved sanctions on most of Iran’s economic activity. Though nuclear implementation has gone largely according to plan, the same cannot be said of sanctions relief. Though legally everything the P5+1 and UNSC are required to do under the deal has taken place, practical fulfillment of the sanctions relief has been halting. There are various reasons for this, but they lie in three general areas: low oil prices; Iran’s own internal regulatory and bureaucratic problems; and residual effects from the remaining US financial sanctions against Iran and its banks. Not all of these issues are tied directly to the implementation of the JCPOA, but inadequate attention to these issues will undermine the deal just as surely as if they were a core provision of the agreement. With respect to low oil prices, there is little that the United States or its partners can do that would address Iran’s difficulties. However, with respect to Iran’s internal problems and the residual effects of sanctions, more can be done in Iran and in the United States.

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