2014年全球风电报告年度市场Global Wind Report Annual market update 2014

2015年是风电行业和能源革命的辉煌一年，最终在12月达成了具有里程碑意义的巴黎协议。作为多边主义的罕见胜利，186个国家的政府终于就我们需要达到的目标达成一致，以便为子孙后代保护气候。现在的问题是，他们是否会在中短期内采取行动，让我们达到目标。有很多积极的信号：十年来的低化石燃料价格对风能和太阳能的增长没有明显的影响；金融稳定委员会关于全球金融体系面临的气候相关风险的声明；中国国家电网呼吁首先建立一个地区电网，然后建立一个全球电网，将清洁能源输送到世界各地——一条新的丝绸之路；机构投资者越来越多地从化石燃料中撤资；当然，风电和太阳能光伏的装机水平迅速增长，价格创下历史新低。风力发电又是一个破纪录的年份。在2014年单年首次突破50千兆瓦大关之后，我们在2015年达到了另一个里程碑，年装机容量突破63千兆瓦，增长了22%。据国际能源机构（IEA）统计，截至去年年底，全球风力发电总量约为433gw，累计增长17%；2015年，风力发电提供的新发电量超过任何其他技术。与往常一样，中国以创纪录的30.8千兆瓦的新增装机容量领跑全球，打破了此前中国在一年内（2014年）创下的装机容量纪录。目前，中国的风电装机容量已超过145gw，超过欧盟所有国家；去年，中国是有史以来第一个在一年内对可再生能源投资超过1000亿美元的国家。在亚洲其他地区，印度是主要的市场，目前已超过西班牙，成为全球累计装机容量的第四位排名，并在去年拥有第五大市场。巴基斯坦、菲律宾、越南、泰国、蒙古和现在的印度尼西亚都是市场增长的成熟国家。在德国创纪录的6千兆瓦装机容量、超过2千兆瓦的海上风电容量的支撑下，欧洲迎来了出人意料的好年景；美国市场第四季度表现出色，年底市场容量为8.6千兆瓦，远高于大多数人的预期。巴西、加拿大、墨西哥和南非也有很长的年份，我们在约旦、瓜地马拉和塞尔维亚看到了第一个商业化的风力发电场。或许最令人鼓舞的迹象是，在需要有竞争力、清洁和本土能源来促进发展的推动下，非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲的新市场继续扩散。展望未来，我们看到一个稳定增长的时期。亚洲将继续领先，欧洲将稳步朝着2020年的目标迈进，尽管道路上可能会有一些坎坷。在北美洲，加拿大和美国似乎都准备好进行新一轮的经济增长，而随着墨西哥能源改革的逐步深入，我们应该看到新自由化市场的快速发展时期。在拉丁美洲，巴西将继续领先，尽管智利、秘鲁、乌拉圭和现在的阿根廷将作出贡献。在非洲和中东，除了市场领头羊南非，摩洛哥和埃及似乎都准备在未来五年实现稳健增长，肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚和其他地方的较小市场也在移动。总而言之，未来五年内，风力发电量将增长近一倍。除气候变化外，还有两大趋势对风力发电业务产生了重大的积极影响：价格暴跌：尽管美国市场一段时间以来一直以极低的风电价格为特征，巴西和南非的招标系统在过去几年中也产生了低价，我们最近在埃及、摩洛哥、秘鲁和其他地方看到了大量的招标结果，迄今为止，在美国平原国家以外的地区（40欧元/MWh或以下）的价格闻所未闻，在摩洛哥的情况下，低于30欧元/兆瓦时。这是新常态吗？时间会证明一切的。美国市场稳定：美国作为全球风电行业的先驱，同时拥有一些世界上最好的风电资源，其价格在一段时间内远低于经合组织（OECD）的大多数竞争对手，但困难始终是美国市场的反复出现，由于它受到短期政策框架的制约，每隔几年就留下政策空白，阻碍了行业的发展，因此12月份美国国会通过了长期延长和逐步取消生产税收抵免（PTC）的法案，这是一个非常受欢迎的消息，PTC一直是联邦政府对风能的主要政策支持。美国风电行业目前正进入有史以来最长的政策稳定期，5年后，美国风电行业将是一支非常不同、更加强大的力量。本报告是全球风能理事会发布的第11份全球风能产业现状年度报告。它及时地提供了全球工业的全面概述；一个工业目前分布在80多个国家，其中26个国家的装机容量超过1千兆瓦，8个国家的装机容量超过10千兆瓦。本报告所包含的信息——市场数据、概况和分析，主要是通过全球的GWEC成员协会和公司以及各国政府和独立分析师收集的。我们感谢所有的贡献者，并期待着在未来继续我们的合作。

2015 was a stellar year for the wind industry and for  the energy revolution, culminating with the landmark  Paris Agreement in December. An all too rare triumph of  multilateralism, 186 governments have finally agreed on  where we need to get to in order to protect the climate  for future generations. Now the question is whether or  not they’re going to take the actions in the short and  medium term to get us there. There are a lot of positive signals: decadal low fossil fuel  prices have had no appreciable affect on the growth of  wind and solar; the Financial Stability Board’s pronouncements on the climate related risks to the global financial  system; China’s State Grid calling for first a regional and  then a global grid to transport clean energy around the  world – a new Silk Road; the growing divestment from  fossil fuels by institutional investors; and of course, the  rapidly growing installation levels and record low prices  of both wind power and solar PV. Wind power had yet another record-breaking year. After  passing the 50 GW mark for the first time in a single  year in 2014, we reached yet another milestone in 2015  as annual installations topped 63 GW, a 22% increase. By the end of last year, there were about 433 GW of  wind power spinning around the globe, a cumulative  17% increase; and wind power supplied more new power  generation than any other technology in 2015, according  to the IEA. China led the way, as usual, with a record 30.8 GW of new  installed capacity, breaking the previous record it had set  (in 2014) for installations in a single year. China now has  more than 145 GW of wind power installed, more than  in all of the European Union; and last year it was the  first country ever to invest more than USD 100 billion in  renewables in a single year.Elsewhere in Asia, India is the main story, which has now  surpassed Spain to move into 4th place in the global  cumulative installations ranking, and had the fifth largest  market last year. Pakistan, the Philippines, Viet Nam,  Thailand, Mongolia and now Indonesia are all ripe for  market growth. Europe had a surprisingly good year, led by Germany’s  record-setting 6 GW of installations, bolstered by more  than 2 GW of offshore wind; and the US market had a  remarkable 4th quarter, ending the year with an 8.6 GW  market, much higher than most had expected. Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Africa also had strong  years, and we saw the first commercial wind farms in  Jordan, Guatemala and Serbia. Perhaps the most encouraging sign of all is the continued proliferation of new  markets across Africa, Asia and Latin America, spurred by  the need for competitive, clean, and indigenous energy  sources to fuel development. Looking ahead, we see a period of steady growth. Asia  will continue to lead, and Europe will move steadily  towards its 2020 targets, although there may be some  bumps in the road. In North America, both Canada and  the US seems poised for another round of growth, and as  Mexico’s energy reform gets bedded down we should be  looking at a period of rapid development in that newly  liberalized market. In Latin America, Brazil will continue to lead, although  Chile, Peru, Uruguay and now Argentina will make a contribution. In Africa and the Middle East, besides market  leader South Africa, both Morocco and Egypt seem poised  for solid growth in the next five years, and smaller markets  in Kenya, Ethiopia and elsewhere are moving. All told,  wind capacity should nearly double in the next five years.Other than climate, two other major trends are having a  major positive impact on the wind business: Cratering prices: while very low wind prices have  characterised the US market for some time, and the  Brazilian and South African tendering systems have also  generated low prices for the last several years, we have  recently seen a spate of tender results in Egypt, Morocco,  Peru and elsewhere at what up until now were unheard  of prices outside the US plains states – in the vicinity  of EUR 40/MWh or below, and in the case of Morocco,  below EUR 30/MWh. Is this the new normal? Time will  tell. US Market Stability: The United States, as a pioneer in  the global wind industry as well as having some of the  best wind resources in the world, has had much lower  prices than most of its OECD competitors for some time,  but the difficulty was always the on-again, off-again  nature of the US market, as it was subjected to short  term policy frameworks which left policy gaps every few  years and hampered the growth of the industry.So it was very welcome news in December when the  US Congress passed a long term extension and phase  out of the Production Tax Credit (PTC), which has been  the main federal policy support for wind energy. The US  wind industry now embarks on its longest-ever period of  policy stability, and five years from now the US industry  will be a very different and much stronger force. This report is the 11th annual report on the status of the  global wind industry by the Global Wind Energy Council. It provides a comprehensive overview of the global industry at a moment in time; an industry now present in more  than 80 countries, 26 of which have more than 1 GW  installed, and 8 with more than 10 GW. The information  contained in this report – market data, profiles and  analysis, have been collected primarily through GWEC’s  member associations and companies around the world,  as well as from governments and independent analysts. We thank all our contributors and look forward to continuing our collaboration in the future.