全球风电报告2017年年度市场Global Wind Report Annual market update 2017

就全球设施而言，2017年并不是一个壮观的年份，但关键的发展标志着能源转型的向前推进。在风力发电、太阳能和储能经济性不断提高的推动下，未来可持续能源体系的轮廓开始变得清晰起来。“混合”风能/太阳能/储能电站目前正在建设中，能够在一年中的大部分时间内24/7提供清洁可靠的电力；公用事业公司正在认真试验用电池储能代替尖峰电站；电动汽车在主要市场的销售也在蓬勃发展。地方微电网的发展，一些采用区块链技术的点对点电力交易，以及越来越复杂的市场结构来匹配所有规模的供需，只是开始出现的一些因素。去年此时，我们在摩洛哥的一次投标中报告了价格，该投标突破了0.03美元/千瓦时的门槛。今年，我们注意到墨西哥最近一次招标中创纪录的低价格，突破了0.02亿千瓦时。它能低多少？没有人确切地知道，但成本将继续下降，尽管速度可能低于近年来。总体而言，2017年全球新增风电装机量为52.5千兆瓦，2016年市场新增风电装机量为54.6千兆瓦，总装机容量高达539千兆瓦。然而，这些数字背后的事实是，目前风能在越来越多的纯商业市场上运行，摆脱旧的支持计划；随着政府、监管机构和行业逐渐习惯新的现实，这种转变在许多市场造成了政策差距。我们预计，在2019年全球市场恢复增长之前，2018年的安装数量也会感受到这些差距。在过去十年的大部分时间里，推动全球市场增长的中国在2017年装机容量为19.7千兆瓦，是其他市场的两倍多，尽管相比2016年的23千兆瓦有所下降。印度创下了历史新高，2017年首次突破了4gw的关口，尽管2018年可能是一个“缺口”年，但我们可以预计，从2019年开始，印度将实现快速增长。欧洲度过了不平凡的一年，创造了国内外的新纪录。德国、英国、法国、比利时、爱尔兰和克罗地亚以及离岸市场创造了新的年度市场记录，占欧洲16803兆瓦（欧盟为15638兆瓦）总量的3148兆瓦。美国安装了一个坚固的7gw，躲过了一枪，基本上安然无恙地通过了新的税收法案。加拿大的数字有所下降，但最大的新闻是12月阿尔伯塔省的拍卖会，价格低于0.03美元/千瓦时，我们可以预计2018年会有更多的拍卖会。墨西哥新改革的市场现在已经准备好起飞了，今年我们可以预计超过1000兆瓦的设备。巴西在2017年的装机容量刚刚超过2千兆瓦，似乎政治和经济危机中最严重的一次已经过去，在中断近2年后的12月份的拍卖会上，新的风电项目正在签约，2018年还有两次拍卖会。阿根廷目前拥有一条3千兆瓦的管道，今年第三季度将举行另一场拍卖。中东和非洲局势平静，只有南非增加了产能……但南非带来的好消息是，4月4日，上一轮招标的购电协议在拖延了2年多之后，在国际足联签署。在太平洋地区，唯一的活动是在澳大利亚，该国安装了一个适度的245兆瓦，但现在有一个2.8兆瓦的管道将在未来几年内建成，以实现2020年的目标。为了证明海上风电已经成功地迈出了第一步，2017年，德国的海上开发权首次“零出价”报价超过1千兆瓦。这有助于促使荷兰政府启动一项700兆瓦的“无补贴”招标，并于3月份中标。虽然这还需要几年的时间才能成为新的常态，但离岸市场的发展在经济上与任何新的一代都具有竞争力，至少在欧洲是如此；这引发了全球对这项技术的巨大兴趣：美国、日本、韩国、台湾、印度、澳大利亚，甚至巴西！这是全球风能理事会发布的第13份全球风能产业状况年度报告。它及时地提供了一个特定时刻全球工业的全面概况；一个工业目前分布在90多个国家，其中30个国家的装机容量超过1000兆瓦，9个国家的装机容量超过10000兆瓦。本报告所载的信息——市场数据、利润和分析，主要是通过全球的GWEC成员协会和公司以及各国政府和独立分析师收集的。我们感谢所有的贡献者，并期待继续我们的合作

2017was not a spectacular year in  terms of global installations,  but key developments marked the forward  progress of the energy transformation. Driven  by the improving economics of wind power,  as well as solar and storage, the outlines  of a future sustainable energy system are  beginning to become clear. ‘Hybrid’ wind/solar/storage plants are now  being built, able to supply clean reliable  power 24/7 for most of the year; utilities are  seriously experimenting with battery storage  in place of peaker plants; and EV sales are  booming in key markets. The development  of local micro-grids, some using peer to peer  power trading with blockchain technology,  and more and more sophisticated market  structures for matching up supply and  demand at all scales are just some of the  elements beginning to emerge. Last year at this time we reported on prices in  a tender in Morocco having broken through  the US$ 0.03/kWh barrier. This year, we note  the record low prices in Mexico’s most recent  tender, having broken through US$ 0.02/kWh.  How much lower can it go? Nobody knows  for sure, but costs will continue to come  down, albeit probably at a slower rate than in  recent years. Overall, 52.5 GW of new wind power was  installed across the globe in 2017, a slight  decrease on the 2016 market of 54.6 GW,  bringing total installed capacity up to 539 GW.Behind the numbers, however, is the fact that  wind energy is now operating in more and  more markets on a purely commercial basis,  moving away from the support schemes of  old; and that transition has created policy  gaps in a number of markets, as governments  and regulators as well as the industry gets  accustomed to the new reality. We expect  these gaps to be felt in 2018 installation  numbers as well, before the global market  returns to growth in 2019. China, the driver of global market growth for  most of the last decade, installed 19.7 GW in  2017, more than twice as much as any other  market, even though it represents a decrease  on 2016’s 23 GW. India had a record year,  breaking the 4 GW barrier for the fifi rst time in  2017, and although 2018 is likely to be a ‘gap’  year, we can expect rapid growth starting in  2019. Europe had an extraordinary year, setting new  records both on and offshore. New annual  market records were set in Germany, the UK,  France, Belgium, Ireland and Croatia, as well  as in the offshore segment, which accounted  for 3,148 MW of the European total of  16,803 MW (15,638 MW in the EU). The US installed a solid 7 GW, having dodged  a bullet and survived the new tax bill largely  unscathed. Canada’s numbers were down,  but the big news was December’s auction  in Alberta, with prices coming in below  US$ 0.03/kWh, and we can expect more auctions in 2018. Mexico’s newly reformed  market is now ready for takeoff, and we can  expect more than 1,000 MW of installations  this year. Brazil installed just over 2 GW in 2017, and  it seems as if the worst of the political and  economic crises are behind them, with new  wind power being contracted in December’s  auction after a nearly 2-year hiatus, and there  are two more auctions scheduled for 2018.  Argentina now has a solid 3 GW pipeline with  another auction coming up in the 3rd quarter  of this year. The Middle East and Africa was quiet, with  only South Africa adding capacity…but the  good news from South Africa is that on 4 April  the PPAs for the last round of tenders were  fifi nally signed, after a delay of more than 2  years. In the Pacififi c, the only activity was in  Australia which installed a modest 245 MW,  but now has a 2.8 GW pipeline to be build out  in the next few years to meet 2020 targets. Proving that offshore wind has fifi nally hit  its stride, 2017 marked the fifi rst ‘zero-bid’  offers for offshore development rights, for  more than 1 GW off Germany. This helped  prompt the Dutch government to launch a  ‘subsidy-free’ tender for 700 MW which was  awarded in March. While it will be some years  before this is the new normal, offshore going  forward is economically competitive with  any and all new forms of generation, at least  in Europe; and this has sparked huge interest in the technology around the globe: in the  United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan,  India, Australia and even Brazil! This is the 13th annual report on the status of  the global wind industry by the Global Wind  Energy Council. It provides a comprehensive  overview of the global industry at a specififi c  moment in time; an industry now present  in more than 90 countries, 30 of which  have more than 1,000 MW installed, and  9 with more than 10,000. The information  contained in this report – market data, profifi les  and analysis, have been collected primarily  through GWEC’s member associations and  companies around the world, as well as from  governments and independent analysts. We  thank all our contributors and look forward to  continuing our collaboration in the future.