欧洲风能：2020年展望Wind energy in Europe: Outlook to 2020

2020年将是欧盟的一个重要里程碑，因为成员国将在气候变化和能源承诺方面受到考验。风能将对实现电力部门的这些承诺作出重大贡献，使许多成员国能够以成本效益高的方式实现其目标，并继续进行能源系统改造。2017-2020年平均每年部署12.6千兆瓦，新部署的风能容量量看起来已定根据WindEurope的中心设想，到2020年保持相当强劲。我们预计2017年将创下年度安装量的新高。我们预计在2017-2020年的4年内将安装50千兆瓦。我们预计这将使欧盟的累计装机容量达到204gw。我们预计，这50千兆瓦的新增产能将占欧盟4年新增可再生能源产能的一半以上，远高于太阳能光伏、生物能源和水力发电。风电装机容量超过200千兆瓦，到2020年可满足欧洲16.5%的电力需求，超过水力发电，成为最大的可再生能源。我们预计丹麦将用风能和德国的近30%来满足超过一半的需求。爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙和英国将分别以29%、27%、24%和21%紧随其后。到2020年底，新设施将保持相对强劲的势头，但政策的不确定性以及对2020年后气候和能源框架缺乏雄心，可能会对该行业产生重大负面影响。只有少数成员国提供了可见性和监管确定性。由于欧盟28国中只有5个国家宣布了拍卖计划，投资者收入稳定性缺乏确定性，市场集中度仍将居高不下，其中德国、英国、法国、西班牙和荷兰将安装大部分产能。仅德国就将占所有装机容量的三分之一，总容量为16.5千兆瓦。第二大市场将是英国，三分之二的新设备将在海外。法国将位列第三，潜在装机容量高达6.5gw。在岸市场将保持稳定，到4年期结束时略有下降，主要原因是德国的计划活动减少。然而，我们预计西班牙将在几年的闲置后经历大幅增长；继最近的招标之后，该行业正准备安装4.1千兆瓦的容量。离岸市场的增长速度将高于国内市场。平均每年新增装机容量为3.1千兆瓦，海上风电将占新增装机总量的四分之一左右（相比之下，在2013-2016年的过去4年中，海上风电所占份额为15%）。海外市场将主要集中在英国，容量为5.2千兆瓦，占新增并网容量的42%。另外4个国家将看到海上设施：德国（3.5gw）、比利时（1.5gw）、荷兰（1.4gw）和丹麦（1.0gw）。2019年，海上年装机量将达到4千兆瓦以上。2017年上半年，我们估计整个欧盟28国的开发商在2017年上半年的装机容量约为6.1千兆瓦：陆上4.8千兆瓦，海上1.3千兆瓦。活动集中在德国、英国和法国，占82%。欧盟28国中有15个国家在此期间没有安装，只有8个国家超过100兆瓦大关。离岸市场的活动是2016年上半年的2.6倍，6个风电场在4个国家（德国、英国、比利时和芬兰）带来了额外的产能。在此期间，11个欧盟成员国宣布了总计81亿欧元的新风能投资，用于41千兆瓦的新资产。德国是最大的投资国，新产能融资超过45亿欧元和18千兆瓦。该国的投资活动占欧洲市场的53%。由于在此期间英国没有任何海上风电项目达成最终投资决定，投资额降至10亿欧元以下的创纪录低点。

2020 will mark an important milestone for the European Union as Member States will be tested on their climate change  and energy commitments. Wind energy will make a significant contribution to achieving these commitments in the  power sector, allowing many Member States to reach their targets in a cost-effective way and to continue their energy  system transformation.Deployment in 2017-2020 With an average of 12.6 GW per year, volumes of new deployment of wind energy capacity look set to remain fairly  strong through to 2020, according to WindEurope’s Central Scenario. We expect 2017 to mark a new record high  in annual installations. We expect 50 GW to be installed  in the 4 years of 2017-2020. We expect this would bring  the EU to an accumulative installed capacity of 204 GW.  We expect this 50 GW additional capacity to represent  over half of all new renewable capacity in the EU over the  4-year period, well above solar PV, bioenergy and hydro  power.  With over 200 GW of installed capacity, wind energy  could meet 16.5% of Europe’s electricity needs by 2020, surpassing hydro power and becoming the largest source  of renewable electricity. We expect Denmark to meet  over half of its demand with wind energy and Germany  almost 30%. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the UK will follow  with respectively 29, 27, 24 and 21%. New installations will remain relatively strong until the  end of 2020, but policy uncertainty and lack of ambition  for the post-2020 climate and energy framework could  have a significant negative impact on the sector. Only a  handful of Member States have provided visibility and  regulatory certainty. With only 5 countries among the EU- 28 announcing auctions plans, there is a lack of certainty  on revenue stability for investors.Market concentration will remain high, with Germany, the  UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands installing most of  the capacity. Germany alone will represent a third of all  the installed capacity, with a total of 16.5 GW. The second  largest market will be the UK, with two thirds of its new  installations offshore. France will be third in the list with  potential installations of up to 6.5 GW. The onshore market will remain stable with a slight decrease towards the end of the 4-year period, mainly due  to lower planned activity in Germany. However, we expect  Spain to experience radical growth after several years of  inactivity; following the recent tenders, the industry is  gearing up to install 4.1 GW of capacity. The offshore market will grow at a higher pace than the  onshore market. With average new installations of 3.1  GW/year, offshore wind will represent about one quarter  of the total new installations (compared to a 15% share in  the last 4-year period 2013-2016). The offshore market  will concentrate mainly in the UK with 5.2 GW, representing 42% new grid-connected capacity. Another 4 countries  will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium  (1.5 GW), the Netherlands (1.4 GW) and Denmark (1.0  GW). In 2019, annual installations in offshore will reach  to over 4 GW. In the first half of 2017  In total, we estimate that developers have installed across  the EU-28 about 6.1 GW of capacity in the first half of  2017: 4.8 GW onshore and 1.3 GW offshore. Activity has  been concentrated in Germany, UK and France with a  share of 82%. 15 countries out of the EU-28 saw no installations for this period while only 8 countries surpassed  the 100 MW mark. The activity in the offshore market is  2.6 times higher than for the first half of 2016, with 6 wind  farms bringing additional capacity in 4 countries (Germany, the UK, Belgium and Finland). During this period, 11 EU Member States have announced  new wind energy investments totalling €8.1bn for 4.1 GW  of new assets. Germany was the biggest investor, with  over €4.5bn and 1.8 GW of new capacity financed. Investment activity in the country accounted for 53% of the European market. With no offshore wind projects reaching  Final Investment Decision in the UK during this period,  investments dropped to a record low below €1bn.