欧亚煤炭市场报告2010-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2010-1(2010)

从大西洋和太平洋市场的走势来看，在过去两年中，大西洋市场继续萎缩，有利于太平洋市场。这是受中国(部分也是印度)需求进一步增长、澳大利亚和印尼供应增长的影响。南非和俄罗斯也越来越多地将大西洋的石油供应转移到太平洋盆地。目前全球超过40%的煤炭需求来自中国，国内供需的微小变化可能对国际市场产生重大影响。日本仍然是世界上最大的煤炭进口国，大约有185.6吨，其次是韩国、99.6吨和台湾66.1吨。直到最近还是净出口国的中国，自2009年以来一直是主要的净进口国。澳大利亚有271吨，是主要的煤炭出口国(占世界市场的32%)，其次是印度尼西亚有215吨，俄罗斯有92吨。根据初步估计，2009年海运煤炭市场几乎停滞不前。海运焦煤贸易的下降几乎得到了高蒸汽煤贸易的补偿。然而，需求进一步转向太平洋地区。虽然世界经济仍然受到危机的影响，但太平洋地区的蒸汽煤贸易进一步增长。煤炭市场的这种积极发展要归功于中国日益增长的作用，这进一步增加了其需求，同时停止了出口。2009年，中国是煤炭净进口国，与前一年相比，煤炭需求出现了约100吨的波动。如果没有中国需求的净增长，世界煤炭价格很可能已经崩溃。随着煤炭需求的增长，中国弥补了欧洲、日本和南美焦煤需求的下降以及欧洲和日本蒸汽煤需求的下降。中国煤炭贸易对世界煤炭市场(除了焦炭)的影响仅在一年之内就达到100吨左右。进口增加了76.4吨，出口减少了23.4吨。澳大利亚和印度尼西亚是最能利用这种情况的两个出口国。此外，俄罗斯、南非和越南也增加了对中国的出口。蒸汽煤(见表2)在2008年末和2009年初价格快速下跌后，价格受到中国需求的支撑，在今年剩余时间内保持在历史高位，同时出现短期波动。美国和欧洲的蒸汽煤需求下降对大西洋的价格产生了不可避免的影响，使太平洋的价格下降到低于太平洋的水平。虽然冬天相当冷，但天然气相对便宜和丰富，这导致了非常高的蒸汽煤库存。经合组织国家的工业用电需求继续保持在低水平。太平洋市场增加了21吨，印度尼西亚(+ 13吨)、俄罗斯(+ 12吨)和澳大利亚(+ 10吨)是主要的出口国。中国减少了20吨的出口量。b)大西洋市场供应整个大西洋市场减少了12吨。哥伦比亚减少了6吨的出口量，美国减少了5吨，委内瑞拉减少了2吨。焦煤供应(见表3)海运焦煤市场减少了‐12公吨。加拿大(‐4公吨)、美国(‐4公吨)和中国(‐3公吨)出现了较大降幅。4所示。价格演变(见表1)a)动力煤价格b)炼焦煤和焦炭价格炼焦煤价格趋于上涨，一方面是由于中国的巨大需求，另一方面也是由于全球钢铁行业复苏缓慢。5. 运费率散货船的运费率一直很不稳定。

WORLD MARKET Looking at movements on the Atlantic and Pacific markets over the last two years, the Atlantic market continued to shrink in favour of the Pacific market.  This was influenced by further growth in demand from China, partially also India, with growth in supply from Australia and Indonesia. South Africa and Russia are also increasingly diverting supplies from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin. Over 40% of global demand for coal currently comes from China, and small changes in the internal supply and demand can have a major impact on international markets. Japan continued to remain the world’s largest coal importer with approximately 185.6 Mt, followed by Korea, 99.6 Mt and Taiwan 66.1 Mt. China, that was until recently a net exporter, was a major net importer since 2009.   Australia, with 271 Mt, was the main exporter of coal (with a 32% share of the world market), followed by Indonesia with 215 Mt and Russia with 92 Mt.     Based on first estimates, the seaborne world coal market almost stagnated in 2009. The drop in seaborne coking coal trade was almost compensated by a higher steam coal trade.   Demand nevertheless shifted further towards the Pacific. Although the world economy still suffered from the crisis, steam coal trade in the Pacific increased further. This positive development of the coal market has to be attributed to the growing role of China, which is further increasing its demand, whilst stopping exports. China was a net coal importer in 2009, with a swing in demand compared to the previous year of about 100 Mt. World prices would likely have collapsed without this net increase in demand from China.CHINESE COAL TRADE With its increased coal demand, China compensated the declining coking coal demand from Europe, Japan and South America and the declining steam coal demand from Europe and Japan.The impact of Chinese coal trade on the World coal market (except coke) was of some 100 Mt within one year only. Imports increased by 76.4 Mt and export decreased by 23.4 Mt. The two exporters who took most advantage of this situation were Australia and Indonesia. But also Russia, South Africa and Vietnam were able to increase exports to China.1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) After the rapid fall in prices in late 2008 and the beginning of 2009, prices were supported by Chinese demand and remained relatively high by historic levels for the remainder of the year whilst showing short term volatility. Decreasing steam coal demand in the USA and Europe had an inevitable effect on Atlantic prices which decreased to below levels in the Pacific. Although the winter was rather cold, gas was relatively cheap and abundant which resulted in extremely high steam coal stocks. Industrial electricity demand in the OECD countries continued to stay low. b) Pacific Market The Pacific market increased by 21 Mt with Indonesia (+ 13 Mt), Russia (+ 12 Mt) and Australia (+ 10 Mt) being the major exporters. China decreased exports by 20 Mt.b) Atlantic Market supply The total Atlantic market shrunk by 12 Mt. Columbia decreased exports by 6 Mt, the USA by 5 Mt and Venezuela by 2 Mt.  2. COKING COAL SUPPLY (see Table 3) The seaborne coking coal market dropped by ‐12 Mt. Major decreases were observed in Canada (‐4 Mt), the USA (‐4 Mt) and China (‐3 Mt).  4. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Coking coal prices are tending to rise, on the one hand due to a heavy demand from China but also due to the slowly recovering steel industry worldwide. 5. FREIGHT RATES Freight rates for bulk carriers have been highly volatile.