欧亚煤炭市场报告2017-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2017-1(2017)

世界煤炭市场发展——世界煤炭生产和海运贸易主要趋势全球动力煤产量下降,从2016年的70亿吨增加到2015年的67亿吨,反映了低价格在主要经济体由于需求疲软,主要是中国、欧盟(EU)和美利坚合众国(美国)。全球煤炭贸易2016年全球海运硬煤贸易预计为1100吨，几乎与前一年持平。供应市场由澳大利亚和印度尼西亚主导，分别占市场份额的35%和28%。随着煤炭价格从2016年下半年开始飙升，许多煤炭生产巨头正在恢复盈利。英美资源集团取消了两笔冶金煤矿的资产剥离。嘉能可(Glencore)报告2016年实现净利润，但煤炭对冲交易亏损10亿美元。必和必拓公布了2009年以来最高的煤炭利润，但对短期不确定性表示谨慎。到2016年底，煤炭价格和趋势蒸汽煤价格出现了惊人的反弹，达到了每吨90美元。涨价的基础是减产，主要是在中国。中国进一步限制工作日的决定在2017年3月被推迟，原因是煤炭价格上涨幅度超出了中国监管机构的预期。欧洲煤MARKETThe欧洲煤炭市场自2012年以来持续下降的原因:电力批发价格低,市场份额损失补贴可再生能源,新的竞争气体和压力环境监管和税收,以及有限的可用性的公共和私人财务新项目。奥地利能源公司HARD COALAustria Verbund将在2020年前关闭梅拉赫(Mellach) 246兆瓦的燃煤电厂。电厂,在1986年委托,代表大约12%的奥地利燃煤能力并提供主要由波兰和Węglokoks OKD来自捷克共和国。捷克2016年的硬煤产量为6.8公吨，比2015年8.2公吨下降了18%。大约3.4公吨的硬煤出口(-4%)，大约3.1公吨的硬煤进口，比2015年增加了10%。电力生产和焦炭生产平分进口。丹麦煤炭进口量从2015年的2.8吨小幅增至2016年的2.9吨。董能源宣布，到2023年，将停止在其发电厂使用煤炭，代之以木球和木片。目前，东电46%的火力发电和热能发电都使用煤炭。Studstrup电站在2016年10月和单元1 Avedre电站在2016年12月被转换为燃烧生物质。芬兰这个北部国家没有任何煤矿，但使用固体燃料发电。2016年，初步数据显示进口为3.9吨，其中1.5吨为炼焦煤。煤炭消费量(包括硬煤、焦炭、高炉煤气、焦炉煤气)增长16%，达到116吨(能源消费总量的9%)。2016年，德国的煤炭产量从2015年的6.7吨(-39%)大幅下降至4.1吨，原因是奥古斯塔维多利亚煤矿计划在2016年1月关闭。煤炭进口量一直处于高位，为53.1吨，略低于2015年。煤炭和煤炭产品进口总量为55.2吨(蒸汽煤73.1%，焦煤22.0%，焦炭3.5%，无烟煤1.1%，煤球0.2%)。2016年，煤炭在意大利电力结构中的份额保持在12%左右。进口动力煤14吨(与2015年相比下降12.5%);冶金用煤和PCI的进口量增加到3.9 Mt(与2015年相比增长了11%)。意大利制造业的电价比欧盟平均水平高出50%，因为该国依赖从俄罗斯和阿尔及利亚进口的天然气以及可再生能源补贴。波兰2016年的硬煤产量为70.4吨，较2015年下降了1.8%。最大的生产商依然存在:Kompania Węglowa(生产23.6吨、3.6吨不到2015年),Jastrzebska Spolka Węglowa,主要专攻炼焦煤(生产16.8吨,比2015年增加0.5吨)Katowicki控股Węglowy(生产9.5吨、1.1吨不到2015年),和LW Bogdanka(生产9.0吨,比2015年增加0.5吨)。波兰的硬煤出口量与2015年持平，为9公吨。波兰的硬煤进口量也保持稳定，2016年为8.3公吨，主要来自俄罗斯(5.2公吨)、澳大利亚(1.7公吨)和哥伦比亚(0.6公吨)。然而，2016年进口的动力煤更多，炼焦煤更少。西班牙2016年的煤炭产量为1.7吨，比前一年下降了42%。煤炭进口的临时数据显示，2015年是水力发电的好年份，从2015年的19吨下降到14.7吨左右。2016年，燃煤电厂发电37.5 TWh，占西班牙电力市场的14%。土耳其煤炭生产和进口在2016年土耳其上去,扩张后的经济和煤炭舰队,以及实施新的安全措施,尽管选择性额外征税进口煤用于发电,介绍了8月在煤炭市场报告(报告2016 - 2)。在2016年,总值92.3太瓦时使用煤炭、电力总总发电量的34%左右。2016年，煤炭仅占发电的10%(与2015年相比下降了60%)。然而，没有更多的工厂被宣布关闭。煤炭产量为4.2吨(下降51%)，进口为8.3吨，紧随煤炭发电量的下降。进口主要来自哥伦比亚(2.4公吨)、俄罗斯(2.3公吨)和美国(1.3公吨)。尤其是俄罗斯的煤炭进口近年来大幅下滑，从英国市场最大的煤炭供应国降至第三位，部分原因是与氮氧化物相关的质量问题。乌克兰政府于2017年2月宣布进入紧急状态，原因是煤炭库存低，这意味着存在断电风险。据报道，低库存是由于一些乌克兰活动人士切断了来自非政府控制地区的煤炭运输。紧急状态随后被延长。与2015年相比，2016年保加利亚褐煤的煤炭利用和产量有所下降，主要是由于总发电量下降。褐煤产量下降到31.2 Mt(与2015年相比下降了13%)，而褐煤消耗量为29.9 Mt(下降了16%)。2016年，捷克的褐煤产量稳定在38.5公吨，其中大部分用于电力生产(29.0公吨)。出口保持在2015年的水平，大约为0.92吨，主要出口到波兰和斯洛伐克。几乎没有褐煤进口，这与2015年约1吨褐煤进口的情况有所不同。2016年德国褐煤产量为171.5 Mt，较上年下降3.7%。大部分矿业集中在莱茵兰地区(52.7%)，其次是卢萨提亚(36.3%)和德国中部(10.3%)。Helmstedt煤矿关闭是因为使用其褐煤的发电厂转移到了战略保护区。褐煤是希腊重要的发电燃料，约占电力市场的三分之一(2016年为31%)。2016年褐煤产量为32.6 Mt，比2015年下降了28%。硬煤消耗量低，仅用于工业用途。希腊没有硬煤开采，2016年进口量为0.3吨，与2015年持平。匈牙利2016年的煤炭产量为9.2吨，略低于2015年。匈牙利的硬煤产量可能会增加，为了满足家庭消费，2016年新开了两座小煤矿。还有一家新的煤炭公司使用褐煤作为混合肥料出口到意大利。生产规模虽小，但这对整个行业来说是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。2016年波兰褐煤产量为60.2 Mt，略低于2015年的63.1 Mt。主要产地是铂族元素Bełchatow,超过40.2公吨,紧随其后的是铂族元素特罗(7.5吨),PAK Konin(9.0吨)和PAK Adamow(3.5吨)。2016年，罗马尼亚褐煤产量降至23.0 Mt，其中20.0 Mt由该国第二大电力公司Oltenia Energy Complex开采。除了过去4年为二氧化碳排放证书支付的2.4亿欧元外，该公司近年来还投资了10亿欧元用于脱硫工厂、浓浆设备和静电除尘器。2016年，斯洛伐克褐煤产量稳定在1.8吨，其中大部分用于发电。经过最近的几次煤矿收购之后，霍诺尼特里安斯克贝恩普雷内扎(Hornonitrianske bane priapriza, a.s.s (HBP))是该国唯一的煤矿公司，雇佣了大约4200名员工。提取煤在地下煤矿在Novaky, Cigeľ,HandlovaČary。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Key trends Global steam coal production decreased again, from 7.0 billion tonnes in 2015 to 6.7 billion tonnes in  2016, reflecting low prices due to weaker demand in major economies, mainly China, the European Union  (EU) and the United States of America (US). Global coal trade Global seaborne hard coal trade is estimated at 1 100 Mt in 2016, almost the same level as in the  previous year. The supply market is dominated by Australia and Indonesia, which supply 35% and  respectively 28% of the market. Corporate developments Many coal producing majors are returning to profit, following the coal price surge starting in the second  half of 2016. Anglo American cancelled two metallurgical coal mine divestments. Glencore reported a  profit on a net basis in 2016, but a $1bn coal hedge loss. BHP reported its highest met coal profits since  2009, but cautioned against short-term uncertainties.Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices made a spectacular recovery by the end of 2016, reaching 90 $/tonne. The fundaments  for the price increase were production cuts, mainly in China. China’s decision to curb working days  further was postponed in March 2017, as coal prices moved higher than the Chinese regulators would  like them to be. EUROPEAN COAL MARKETThe European coal market has continued to decline since 2012 for a combination of reasons: low  wholesale electricity prices, loss of market share to subsidised renewables, renewed competition from  gas and pressure from environmental regulation and taxation, as well as the limited availability of public  and private finances for new projects. HARD COALAustria Verbund, an Austrian energy company, will close the 246 MW Mellach coal-fired power plant by 2020.  The power plant, commissioned in 1986, represents about 12% of Austrian coal-fired capacity and it is supplied mainly by Węglokoks from Poland and OKD from the Czech Republic. Czech Republic Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 6.8 Mt in 2016, a decrease of 18% from 2015,  when it stood at 8.2 Mt. Approximately 3.4 Mt of hard coal were exported (-4%) and approximately  3.1 Mt were imported, 10% more than in 2015. Imports were equally divided between electricity  generation and coke production. Denmark Danish coal imports slightly increased to 2.9 Mt in 2016, from 2.8 Mt in 2015. DONG Energy announced that it will stop using coal at its power plants by 2023, replacing the fuel with  wood pellets and wood chips. Currently, DONG is using coal for 46% of thermal power and heat  generation. Studstrup Power Station in October 2016 and Unit 1 at Avedre Power Station in December 2016 were converted to burn biomass. Finland The Northern country does not have any coal mining operations, but uses solid fuels for electricity  generation. In 2016, preliminary data shows that imports stood at 3.9 Mt, 1.5 Mt being coking coal. Overall, the consumption of coal (including hard coal, coke, and blast furnace and coke oven gas) increased by 16% to 116 TJ (9% of total energy consumption). Hard coal consumption, mostly in  combined heat and power production, increased by 31% to 3.3 Mt.  Germany In 2016, coal production significantly decreased to 4.1 Mt from 6.7 Mt in 2015 (-39%), due to the planned  closure of Augusta Victoria mine in January 2016. Coal imports have been at high levels, at 53.1 Mt,  slightly lower than in 2015. Total coal and coal products imports stood at 55.2 Mt (73.1% steam coal,  22.0% coking coal, 3.5% coke, 1.1% anthracite, 0.2% briquettes). Italy Coal’s share in the Italian electricity mix remained stable at around 12% in 2016. Steam coal imports  stood at 14 Mt (-12.5% compared with 2015); while the imports of metallurgical coal and PCI increased  to 3.9 Mt (+11% compared with 2015). The Italian manufacturing industry incurs electricity prices 50% above the EU average, as the country  depends on imported natural gas from Russia and Algeria and subsidised renewable energies. Poland Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased in 2016 to 70.4 Mt, -1.8% compared with 2015. The  largest producers remain: Kompania Węglowa (producing 23.6 Mt, 3.6 Mt less than in 2015), Jastrzebska  Spolka Węglowa, mostly specialised in coking coal (producing 16.8 Mt, 0.5 Mt more than in 2015)  Katowicki Holding Węglowy (producing 9.5 Mt, 1.1 Mt less than in 2015), and LW Bogdanka (producing  9.0 Mt, 0.5 Mt more than in 2015). Polish hard coal exports remained the same as in 2015, at 9 Mt. Imports of hard coal into Poland  remained also stable, at 8.3 Mt in 2016, largely from Russia (5.2 Mt), Australia (1.7 Mt) and Colombia (0.6 Mt). However, more steam coal and less coking coal was imported in 2016.Spain Coal production in 2016 was at 1.7 Mt, a large decrease (-42%) from the previous year. Provisional figures  for coal imports show a decrease to around 14.7 Mt, from 19 Mt in 2015, following a good year for hydro  generation. Coal-fired power plants generated 37.5 TWh in 2016, covering 14% of the Spanish electricity  market.Turkey Coal production and imports in Turkey went up in 2016, following the expansion of the economy and of  the coal fleet, as well as implementation of new safety measures, despite the selective additional tax on  imported coal used for power generation, introduced in August (reported in Coal Market report 2016- 2). In 2016, 92.3 TWh gross electricity was generated using coal, around 34% of total gross electricity  generation in the country. United Kingdom In 2016, coal represented just 10% of generation (down 60% in comparison with 2015). However, no  further plant closures were announced. Coal production was 4.2 Mt (down 51%) and imports stood at  8.3 Mt, following the decline in coal generation. Imports came mostly from Colombia (2.4 Mt), Russia  (2.3 Mt) and the USA (1.3 Mt). Russian coal imports in particular lost significant ground in recent years,  falling from the top supplier of the UK market to third place, partly for quality reasons relative to NOX. Ukraine The Ukrainian government declared a state of emergency in February 2017 due to low coal inventories,  which means a risk of power cuts. The low inventories are reported to result from the blocking supply of  coal transport from non-government controlled territories by some Ukrainian activists. The state of  emergency has been subsequently prolonged. LIGNITE Bulgaria Coal utilisation and production decreased in 2016, in comparison with 2015, mainly due to lower gross  electricity production. Lignite production decreased to 31.2 Mt (-13% in comparison with 2015), while  lignite consumption stood at 29.9 Mt (-16%).Czech Republic Brown coal production in the Czech Republic remained steady at 38.5 Mt in 2016, most being utilised in  electricity production (29.0 Mt). Exports remained at the same level as in 2015, at around 0.92 Mt, mainly  to Poland and Slovakia. Almost no brown coal was imported, a change from 2015 when about 1 Mt of  brown coal were imported. Germany Lignite production in 2016 was 171.5 Mt, 3.7% lower than the previous year. Most mining is in the  Rhineland region (52.7%), followed by Lusatia (36.3%) and Central Germany (10.3%). Helmstedt mine  closed because the power plant that was using its lignite moved to the strategic reserve. Greece Lignite is an important fuel for power generation in Greece, with about one third of the electricity market (31% in 2016). Lignite production stood at 32.6 Mt in 2016, 28% less than in 2015. Hard coal consumption  is low, used only for industrial purposes. There is no hard coal mining in Greece and imports stood at  0.3 Mt in 2016, about the same figure as in 2015.Hungary Coal production in Hungary stood at 9.2 Mt in 2016, slightly lower than in 2015. Hard coal production  in Hungary will likely increase, two small new mines were opened in 2016 to meet household consumption. There is also a new coal company that uses lignite in a mix as fertilizer for export to Italy.  The production is small scale, but this is an encouraging sign for the industry.Poland In 2016, lignite production stood at 60.2 Mt, slightly less than the 63.1 Mt produced in 2015. The leading producer was PGE Bełchatw, with over 40.2 Mt, followed by PGE Turw (7.5 Mt), PAK Konin (9.0 Mt)  and PAK Adamw (3.5 Mt). Romania Lignite production decreased to 23.0 Mt in 2016, 20.0 Mt being mined by Oltenia Energy Complex, the  second largest electricity company in the country. The company invested €1 bn in recent years for  desulphurization plants, dense slurry facilities and electrostatic precipitators, in addition to the €240  million paid for CO2 certificates in the last four years.Slovakia Lignite production remained stable at 1.8 Mt in 2016, most being consumed for electricity generation.  Hornonitrianske bane Prievidza, a.s. (HBP) is the only coal miner in the country, after recent mine  acquisitions, employing circa 4,200 employees. Coal is extracted in underground collieries at Novky,  Cgeľ, Handlov and Čry.