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在北非安全状况恶化之际，阿尔及利亚经济遭受重创，这引发了人们对欧佩克国家抵御由此引发的经济、政治和安全冲击能力的担忧，并邀请人们将当前局势与阿尔及利亚在1986-1988年间经历的灾难性事件进行比较油价暴跌及其后果。阿尔及利亚的安全和能源未来至关重要：它在西地中海拥有战略地位，是在阿拉伯之春和随后几年保持稳定的两个北非国家之一。它还是非洲最大的天然气生产国和主要的液化天然气出口国。它是欧洲第二大天然气出口国，也是地中海国家的主要石油供应国。 本文发现，阿尔及利亚目前所经历的情况与导致20世纪90年代血腥内战的一连串事件既有明显的相似之处，也有重大的区别，与30年前相比，今天的阿尔及利亚更能抵御市场低迷。取决于当前低油价的持续时间，这些分歧应能减轻重演上世纪80年代中期石油冲击的风险，那次冲击使该国陷入衰退，并引发叛乱、伊斯兰选举胜利，最后是军事政变、镇压和内战。虽然阿尔及利亚的财政和经常账户余额明显恶化，但其外汇储备仍然可观（即使迅速减少），外债也微不足道。这与上世纪80年代末形成鲜明对比，当时外汇储备不足和外债居高不下是迫使政府采取创伤休克疗法来实现稳定的两个主要因素。此外，尽管石油和天然气收入下降，阿尔及利亚经济在目前的低价格环境下继续增长，并能够避免像1986-1988年那样的经济衰退。这给了阿尔及尔更多的短期政策空间，以控制紧缩和改革措施的步伐和深度。上世纪90年代致命内战的记忆，2011年阿拉伯起义的结果，以及地区安全的全面恶化，也可能缓和 阿尔及利亚人倾向于采取紧缩措施。至关重要的是，与过去相比，安全部队得到了更好的训练、了解情况和装备，国防和安全开支没有受到预算削减的影响。
battered the Algerian economy at a time of degenerating security conditions in Northern Africa, raising concerns about the ability of the OPEC nation to weather the resulting economic, political, and security shocks, and inviting comparisons between the current situation and the catastrophic events experienced by the country during the 1986–1988 oil price collapse and in its aftermath. Algeria’s security and energy future are of critical importance: it holds a strategic position in the Western Mediterranean and was one of two North African countries that remained stable during the Arab Spring and the subsequent years. It is also the largest natural gas producer in Africa and a major LNG exporter. It is the number-two exporter of natural gas to Europe and a key supplier of oil to its Mediterranean countries. This paper finds that there are both clear parallels and key differences between what Algeria is going through now and the chain of events that led to the bloody civil war of the 1990s. On balance, and notwithstanding the fact that some indicators have deteriorated to worrying levels, Algeria is better equipped altogether to weather a market downturn today than it was thirty years ago. Depending on how protracted the current period of low oil prices might turn out to be, these differences should mitigate the risks of a repeat of the mid-1980s oil shock that plunged the country into recession and triggered a spiral of revolts, Islamist electoral victories, and finally a military coup, repression, and civil war. While Algeria’s fiscal and current account balances clearly have worsened, its reserves remain substantial (even if rapidly decreasing) and its external debt is negligible. This is in contrast with the late 1980s, when a lack of reserves and high external debt were the two main factors that forced the government to adopt a traumatic shock-therapy approach to stabilization. In addition, despite the decline in oil and gas revenues, the Algerian economy has continued to grow during the current low price environment and has been able to avoid an economic recession like the one experienced in 1986–1988. This gives Algiers more short-term policy space to control the pace and depth of austerity and reform measures. The memories of the deadly civil war in the 1990s, the outcome of the 2011 Arab revolts, and the overall deterioration of regional security may also moderate the reaction of Algerians toward austerity measures. Critically, the security forces are better trained, informed, and equipped than in the past, and defense and security expenses are not being affected by budgetary cuts.
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