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欧佩克对市场稳定的追求OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability 欧佩克对市场稳定的追求OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability

欧佩克对市场稳定的追求OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability

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  • 更新时间：2021-09-17
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我们调查了石油输出国组织（OPEC）为稳定过去50年的油价所做的尝试。我们首先开发一种全球需求和非欧佩克供应变化的新颖分解方法。这种分解为关于需求与供给因素作为先前价格走势的决定因素的相对重要性的辩论提供了新的视角。考虑到欧佩克的产量，分析表明欧佩克在市场稳定方面做出了努力。使用仅自2001年以来可用的更详细的月度数据，我们扩展并完善了Pierru，Smith和Zamrik（2018）对OPEC备用产能管理的分析，以抵消需求和供应的冲击。尽管欧佩克未能发现并抵消冲击的尝试还不是完美的，但我们得出的结论是，总体而言，欧佩克利用闲置产能已大大降低了油价的波动性。在最近的OPEC +时期尤其如此。我们还提供了欧佩克为减少价格波动所做的努力所产生的对全球经济的福利收益的估计，并显示了这些收益如何在地理上分布。

We investigate attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the price of oil during the past fifty years. We first develop a novel decomposition of shifts in global demand and non-OPEC supply. This decomposition provides a fresh perspective on the debate over the relative importance of demand versus supply factors as determinants of previous price movements. When factoring in OPEC's production, the analysis suggests market stabilization efforts by OPEC. Using more detailed monthly data available only since 2001, we extend and refine Pierru, Smith, and Zamrik's (2018) analysis of OPEC's management of spare capacity to offset shocks to demand and supply. Although OPEC's attempt to identify and offset shocks has not been perfect, we nevertheless conclude that, overall, OPEC's use of spare capacity has achieved a significant reduction in the volatility of the price of oil. This has been particularly true during the recent OPEC+ period. We also provide an estimate of welfare gains to the global economy that result from OPEC's effort to reduce price volatility and show how these gains have been distributed geographically.

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