2016年5月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR May 2016(2016)

原油价格变动4月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子平均为37.86美元/桶，上涨3.21美元或9.3%。尽管目前持续供过于求，但受市场形势改善预期提振，油价较年初低点上涨了40%。原油期货价格上涨超过8%，其中冰布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.55美元，至平均43.34美元/桶，而莱尼梅克斯WTI原油期货价格上涨3.16美元，至41.12美元/桶。预计2016年世界经济增长率为3.1%，在去年预计增长2.9%后，两者与上月持平。经合组织2016年的增长率仍为1.9%，略低于2015年的2.0%。在新兴经济体，印度和中国今年继续以7.5%和6.5%的水平扩张，中国在2006年第一季度好于预期的情况下修正了0.2个百分点。然而，巴西和俄罗斯今年预计仍将处于衰退状态，分别萎缩3.4%和1.1%，巴西的石油需求量修正后下降了0.5个百分点。2015年世界石油需求量增长了约154万桶/日，与上个月的报告持平。石油总消费量平均为9298万桶/日。2016年，世界石油需求量预计将下降与上个月的预测相比，石油价格上涨了120万桶/日，达到9418万桶/日，与美国和中国的下调幅度相抵消。2015年世界石油供应国欧佩克的石油供应增长略有上升，至147万桶/日，2016年的平均水平为5714万桶/日，非欧佩克石油供应调低至平均5640万桶/日，收缩0.74万桶/日。根据直接通信，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油2015年的估计量调低了20吨/日，从13万桶/日上升至平均613万桶/日。2016年的增长也调低至16万桶/日，至平均629万桶/日。4月份，据二级消息来源称，欧佩克原油产量增加188 tb/d，平均为3244 mb/d。美国的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场受到强劲的国内汽油需求的支撑，同时由于一些中断和维修导致市场人气趋紧。在欧洲，在驾驶季节到来之前，较高的汽油出口机会为炼油厂利润率提供了支撑，亚洲利润率走弱，尽管该地区炼油厂的维护达到顶峰，但中间馏分油的供应过剩对产品市场造成压力。油轮市场脏油轮现货运费下降，原因是超大型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运费下降，因为吨位供应量增加，而市场活动仍然有限。4月份苏伊士型油轮现货运价有所上涨，主要是由于对几个目的地的强烈信心，加上偶尔出现的仓位紧张。在清洁油轮市场，苏伊士以西的活动支持运价，而苏伊士以东的运价仍然疲弱。3月份，商业石油库存下降至3049MB。在这个水平上，OEC商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出约36100万桶。原油库存较低，为21500万桶，而产品基本持平，为1460万桶。就远期覆盖率而言，经合组织商业库存为66.8天，比最近五年的平均水平高出约7.5天。据估计，2015年欧佩克原油供需平衡平均为2970万桶/日，与上月持平，较上年减少0.1百万桶/日。2016年，预计欧佩克原油需求量为3150万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比去年高出180万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. Thiswas 40% higher than the lows reached in the beginning of the year, buoyed byexpectations for an improving market situation, despite the current persistent oversupply.Oil futures surged more than 8%, with ICE Brent up $3.55 to average $43.34/b, whileNymex WTI rose $3.16 to $41.12/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2016, after estimated growth of 2.9% lastyear, both unchanged from the previous month. OECD growth in 2016 remains at 1.9%,slightly below the 2.0% seen in 2015. In the emerging economies, India and Chinacontinue to expand this year at a considerable level of 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively, withChina having been revised up by 0.2 pp after a better-than-expected 1Q16. Brazil andRussia, however, are forecast to remain in recession this year, contracting by 3.4% and1.1% respectively, with Brazil having been revised down by 0.5 pp.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2015 grew by around 1.54 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s report.Total oil consumption averaged 92.98 mb/d. In 2016, world oil demand is projected to riseby 1.20 mb/d to reach 94.18 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections, despiteupward revisions to Other Asia, which were counterbalanced by downward revisions toLatin America and China.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth for 2015 has been revised up slightly to 1.47 mb/d for anaverage of 57.14 mb/d. For 2016, non-OPEC oil supply was adjusted lower to average56.40 mb/d, contracting by 0.74 mb/d. The estimate for OPEC NGLs and non-conventionaloils in 2015 has been revised down by 20 tb/d based on direct communication to show arise of 0.13 mb/d to average 6.13 mb/d. Growth in 2016 has also been adjusted lower to0.16 mb/d to average 6.29 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production rose 188 tb/d toaverage 32.44 mb/d, according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the US were supported by strong domestic gasoline demand amidtightening sentiment due to some outages and maintenance. In Europe, higher exportopportunities for gasoline ahead of the driving season lent support to refinery margins.Meanwhile, Asian margins weakened despite peaking refinery maintenance in the regionas the oversupply in middle distillates weighed on product markets.Tanker MarketDirty tanker spot freight rates declined on the back of lower VLCC and Aframax freightrates as tonnage availability grew while market activity remains limited. Suezmax spotfreight rates improved in April supported by strong sentiment for several destinationscombined with an occasionally tight position list. In the clean tanker market, West of Suezactivities supported freight rates, while East of Suez rates remained weak.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks fell in March to stand at 3,049 mb. At this level, OECDcommercial oil stocks are around 361 mb above the latest five-year average. Crudeinventories showed a lower surplus of 215 mb, while products were broadly flat at 146 mb.In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 66.8 days, some 7.5 dayshigher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to average 29.7 mb/d, unchanged from theprevious month and 0.1 mb/d lower than the previous year. In 2016, demand for OPECcrude is projected at 31.5 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report and 1.8 mb/d higherthan last year.