2004年10月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR October 2004(2004)

继第二季度经济放缓之后，中国和美国似乎在第三季度实现了更好的增长。欧元区和日本的前景不容乐观，一些亚洲经济体，特别是韩国，正遭受需求不足和通胀上升的困扰。总体而言，由于北美、拉丁美洲、中国和俄罗斯的增长，预计2004年世界经济将实现4.9%的略高增长率。2005年的经济增长前景受到2004年石油价格异常急剧和持续上涨的影响。此前，预测人士一致预计，2005年油价将稳定在平均约35美元/桶（WTIbasis）的水平。然而，8月和9月市场的强劲导致分析师修改了他们的预测，目前37-38美元/桶的平均价格是大多数预测的基础。油价上涨6-8%可能会使世界经济活动减少约0.15%，2005年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预测也已降至4.1%。这一增长的影响很难判断，因为欧洲虽然是一个能源效率高的地区，但已经饱受商业和消费者信心不足之苦。欧元区2005年的经济增长预期已下调至2%。日本的石油密度也相对较低，但随着中国和其他亚洲经济体的放缓，日本的出口需求可能会减弱。预计日本2005年的经济增长率也只有2%。预计美国经济增长预期将大幅下调0.28%，但仍将受益于2004年强劲的经济势头。因此，2005年美国经济预计将增长3.2%，与20年平均水平持平。能源成本上升对发展中国家的影响差别很大。撒哈拉以南非洲的增长率预计将下降0.4%，这意味着整个非洲的增长率将下降。拉丁美洲几乎没有受到影响，因为该地区的许多经济体都生产石油。亚太地区的增长率下降了0.5%，印度的增长率下降了0.27%。中国的前景是复杂的。油价上涨将导致中国经济增长放缓，但2005年的主要因素可能是更为严格的货币政策。总的来说，2005年中国的经济增长率预计将恢复强劲，但较低的增长率为7.6%。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的参考篮子在8月下旬放松后，在9月份飙升至历史高点。由于飓风伊凡威胁并随后咆哮着穿过墨西哥湾，扰乱了石油供应，影响了美国墨西哥湾沿岸的生产，篮子价格急剧上升。尽管欧佩克决定从11月1日起将日产量提高100万桶或4%至2700万桶，而9月份的实际产量达到3012万桶，创下历史新高，但市场仍看好对尼日利亚罢工的担忧。目前，市场情绪是这样的，参与者在最轻微的坏消息（或潜在的坏消息）出现时就开始哄抬价格，同时打折，几乎没有对好消息作出反应。该篮子本月收于43.39美元/桶，上涨近14%，而月平均值则小幅升至40.36美元/桶，今年的平均值为34.98美元/桶，而去年为28.10美元/桶。进入10月以来，对供应短缺的持续担忧维持了该篮子在上半月的平均价格上涨至43.94美元/桶。中桶综合设施的良好表现支撑了9月份全球炼油厂的利润率，特别是在亚洲。随着全球特别是日本和韩国取暖油库存水平低于平均水平，且增产的操作可能性有限，中间馏分油裂值可能进一步增强，并成为未来两个月市场的驱动力。中间馏分油的上涨趋势也吸引了投机者增加取暖油的净多头头寸。继欧佩克原油产量高达3012万桶/日（这是过去25年来的最高水平）之后，欧佩克地区的现货供应量在9月份增加了0.76万桶/日，达到了1412万桶/日。中东以外的欧佩克成员国对原油现货供应量的增长贡献最大，增加了65万桶/日，原因是对甜原油的需求量很大。由于在墨西哥湾飓风过后的需求量有限，原油价格在下半年大幅上升。由于需求量大，特别是冬季前的蒸馏油需求量大，成品油库市场依然紧俏。由于今年世界经济增长强于预期，2004年第二季度的需求高于预期，以及7月和8月经合组织和非经合组织的初步需求数据更为强劲，2004年世界石油需求增长预测进一步上调，从11万桶/日上调至260万桶/日。由于全球经济增长低于预期，以及价格水平可能产生的影响，2005年的石油需求增长被下调了13万桶/日，至161万桶/日。因此，全球石油需求总量预计将达到平均8341万桶/日，这意味着今年的增长率为2%。根据第二来源，欧佩克9月份的原油产量估计为3012万桶/日，比8月份的数字高出43万桶/日。2004年度非欧佩克石油供应量估计下降到49.95 Mb/d，部分反映了伊凡飓风对墨西哥湾的影响。2005年非欧佩克石油供应预计将达到5116万桶/日，比2004年的预测增加121万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口估计分别为555万桶/日和648万桶/日，预计2004年和2005年将增至726万桶/日和769万桶/日。由于欧佩克产量的增加，经合组织的商业石油库存在8月份继续显示出800万桶的增长，加上7月份观察到的3300万桶的增长。然而，在九月底，美国商业原油库存经历了比以往更陡峭的下降，这也影响了产品的建设，继伊凡飓风在墨西哥湾。自那以后，进口的复苏使得原油库存得以重建，截至10月8日的一周，原油库存增加了420万桶。

Following a second quarter slowdown, China and the USA appear to have achieved better growth in the third quarter. Theoutlook for the Euro-zone and Japan is less encouraging and some Asian economies, particularly South Korea, are sufferingfrom a lack of demand and higher inflation. Overall the world economy is expected to achieve a slightly higher growth rateof 4.9% in 2004 as a result of gains in North America, Latin America, China and Russia. The outlook for economic growth in 2005 has been somewhat affected by the unusually sharp and persistent rise in oil pricesduring 2004. The consensus of forecasters had earlier expected the oil price to settle at an average level of about $35/b (WTIbasis) for 2005. However, the strength of the market in August and September led analysts to revise their projections and anaverage price of $37-38/b now underlies most forecasts. The 6-8% increase in oil prices may reduce world economic activityby about 0.15% and the GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been reduced to 4.1%. The impact of the increase is hard to judge since Europe, though an energy efficient region, already suffers from a lack ofbusiness and consumer confidence. The Euro-zone growth forecast for 2005 has been cut to 2%. Japan has also a relativelylow oil intensity but may suffer from weaker export demand as Chinese and other Asian economies slow. Japan is alsoexpected to grow by only 2% in 2005. The US economy is expected to experience a larger reduction in the growth forecastof 0.28% but will still benefit from the stronger economic momentum from 2004. As a result, the US economy is expected togrow by 3.2% in 2005, in line with the 20-year average. The effect of higher energy costs on developing countries varies greatly. The growth rate of Sub-Saharan Africa is expectedto fall by 0.4% which means that Africa as a whole will see lower growth. Latin America is hardly affected since manyeconomies in the region produce oil. The growth rate of the Asia Pacific region has been reduced by 0.5% whilst Indiangrowth has been cut by 0.27%. The outlook for China is complex. Higher oil prices will tend to reduce Chinese growth butthe main factor for 2005 may be a more restrictive monetary policy. Overall the growth rate of China in 2005 is expected toremain strong but a lower rate of 7.6%. The OPEC Reference Basket surged to all time highs in September after easing in late August. The Basket rose dramatically onfear of a possible supply shortfall as Hurricane Ivan threatened and then roared through the Gulf of Mexico, disrupting oilsupply to as well as impacting the production of the US Gulf Coast. Despite an OPEC decision to increase its production quotaby 1 mb/d or 4% to 27 mb/d effective 1 November at a time of record high actual output reaching 30.12 mb/d in September, themarket remained bullish on concerns over a strike in Nigeria. Currently, market sentiment is such that participants are biddingup prices at the onset of the slightest bad news (or potentially bad news) while discounting and hardly responding to good news.The Basket closed the month at $43.39/b for a rise of nearly 14%, while the monthly average edged up to $40.36/b. The year-todateaverage stood at $34.98/b compared to $28.10/b the year before. Moving into October, persistent fear of a supply shortfallmaintained the Basket’s rise to average $43.94/b in the first half of the month. The good performance of the middle of the barrel complex has supported refinery margins across the globe in September,particularly in Asia. With the level of heating oil stocks below average around the world, especially in Japan and SouthKorea, and limited operational possibilities to increase output, the middle distillate crack value may strengthen further andremain the driving force of the market in the next two months. The upward trend for middle distillates has temptedspeculators to increase net long positions in heating oil as well. OPEC area spot fixtures increased by 0.76 mb/d to stand at 14.12 mb/d in September, following the high level of OPECcrude oil production, which secondary sources place at 30.12 mb/d, the highest level in the last 25 years. OPEC MemberCountries outside the Middle East contributed the most to the rise in spot fixtures, adding 0.65 mb/d, due to the high demandfor sweet crude oils. Freight rates for crude oil moved upward significantly in the second half of the month due to highdemand in conjunction with limited tonnage availability following hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The product tankermarket also remained tight due to high demand, especially for distillates ahead of the winter. The world oil demand growth forecast for 2004 has seen a further upward revision of 0.11 mb/d to 2.6 mb/d due to thisyear’s stronger than expected expansion in the world economy along with higher than anticipated demand in the secondquarter of 2004 and more robust preliminary demand figures for both the OECD and non-OECD in July and August. Incontrast, due to lower than anticipated global economic growth and the possible effect that price levels could have ondemand, oil demand growth in 2005 has been revised down by 0.13 mb/d to 1.61 mb/d. Thus, total world oil demand nextyear is projected to average 83.41 mb/d, which implies a growth rate of 2% for the year. OPEC crude oil production in September, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 30.12 mb/d, 0.43 mb/d over therevised August figure. Non-OPEC oil supply estimate for 2004 was revised down to 49.95 mb/d, partly as a reflection of theimpact of Hurricane Ivan on the Gulf of Mexico. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.16 mb/d, an increase of1.21 mb/d above the 2004 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.55 mb/d and 6.48 mb/drespectively and are expected to rise to 7.26 mb/d and 7.69 mb/d in 2004 and 2005. As a result of increasing OPEC Production, OECD commercial oil stocks continued to show a build of 8 mb in August,adding to the recent increase of 33 mb observed in July. However at the end of September, US commercial crude oil stocksexperienced a steeper than usual decline, which also affected products build, following the passage of Hurricane Ivan in theGulf of Mexico. Since then, a recovery in imports has allowed crude oil stocks to rebuild with the week-ending 8 Octobershowing an increase of 4.2 mb in crude oil inventories.