2008年10月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR October 2008(2008)

原油价格继续看跌，预计疲弱的经济前景将削弱石油需求增长。美元走强加剧了下跌势头。金融市场动荡加剧了主导全球市场的悲观情绪。按月度计算，9月份该篮子价格下跌15.56美元/桶，跌幅近14%，跌至96.85美元/桶的8个月低点。10月份，随着金融业危机的不断演变，全球经济前景日益黯淡，需求增长也随之放缓，该篮子价格继续大幅走低。10月13日，该篮子价格跌至72美元/桶的12个月低点，在不到3个月的时间里下跌了近69美元/桶。据估计，今年世界经济将增长3.8%，比上个月的估计低0.1个百分点。由于金融危机对实体经济的影响，2009年的预测值整体下调，下调了0.4pp至3.3%。最近几天，欧盟成员国宣布的总额约为1.9万亿欧元的巨额救助计划，强化了已经达成的7000亿美元救助计划的效果。宣布的救援计划的综合影响似乎终于成功地阻止了股市的螺旋式下跌，但一旦各国计划的细节变得更加清晰，实施进程开始，这种积极的反应是否会持续下去，还有待观察。时间是至关重要的，因为经济衰退中已经疲软的经济体预计将面临衰退，只要银行业能够在不久的将来恢复正常运作，衰退的深度和持续时间可能会得到控制。在经合组织（OECD）内部，美国2009年经济增长预期下降0.7个百分点至0.6%，欧元区经济增长预期下降0.4个百分点至0.6%，日本经济增长预期下降至0.3%，较上月下降0.7个百分点。发展中国家和中国明年的增长预期也下降了0.2个百分点，目前分别为5.3%和9.0%。2008年，美国石油消费下降继续使经合组织石油需求减少1.8%以上。经济放缓、高零售价格和飓风等影响世界石油需求的因素导致经合组织总消费量下降超过100万桶/日。9月份非经合组织石油需求同比增长120万桶。其中大部分是由于西安和中东的石油需求。2008年世界石油总需求增长率已降至最初预测的一半，目前为60万桶/日。2009年，经济增长预期下降将继续影响石油需求。因此，美国的石油需求至少在今年上半年将低于最初的预期。对其他经济体的利好将在一定程度上影响其他地区的石油需求。因此，明年世界石油需求增长率下调了10万桶/日，显示出80万桶/日的增长。预计经合组织明年的石油需求将缩减40万桶/日；然而，非经合组织国家的石油需求增长率预计将达到110万桶/日，其中大部分增长来自中国、中东和印度。2008年，非欧佩克成员国的供应增长率较上年下调至30万桶/日。为了适应飓风对美国产量的影响、阿加斯漏油事件后阿塞拜疆石油产量减少以及其他因素，我们进行了调整。2009年，非欧佩克国家的供应增长经历了一次向上修正，达到约100万桶/天。这主要是由于对本年度的修正。欧佩克的天然气和非常规石油目前在2008年为470万桶/日，2009年为540万桶/日。9月份，由于伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和安哥拉的原油产量大幅下降，欧佩克原油产量平均为3220万桶/日，较上月约为309吨/日。古斯塔夫飓风和艾克飓风过后，产品市场情绪暂时好转，物理和期货市场的产品价格都有所上涨。这些产品价格的发展以及由于金融市场进一步恶化而导致的原油价格下跌，也提升了全球炼油业的经济效益。不过，由于美国墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂在过去两周已恢复正常运营，产品短缺的风险已明显缓解，预计近期产品市场的看涨态势不会持续。不过，随着冬季的临近，成品油供应紧张的局面可能会对原油价格提供一定的支撑，但这可能不足以盖过市场上其他看跌因素的影响。9月份，欧佩克的现货供应量平均为1230万桶/日，较上月下降了3%，中东以外的欧佩克的现货供应量也得到了支持。欧佩克的出海量保持稳定，平均为2330万桶/日。上个月，随着原油进口量急剧下降140万桶/日，以美元计价的出海量下降。原油油轮的现货运价从上个月疲软的运价中大幅回升，主要原因是飓风活动频繁和中东市场强劲。随着苏伊士西部市场更加活跃，9月份成品油轮运价上涨。今年9月，古斯塔夫和艾克飓风将美国商业石油库存首次推至5年期区间的底部。库存减少2400万桶，达到960万桶，其中受飓风影响最大的炼油厂贡献了2300万桶。原油库存约为5年平均3亿桶。然而，在截至10月3日的一周内，由于港口基础设施复苏后进口增加，美国库存总量大幅上升。尽管9月份有所下降，但由于需求减弱，库存在远期保障天数方面仍保持良好。加上挪威，InEU-15的石油库存总量下降了450万桶，达到五年平均水平。原油储量超过500万桶后仍保持稳定。8月份，日本商业石油库存，特别是成品油库存继续保持上升趋势，据初步数据显示，9月末日本商业石油库存总量自2007年1月以来首次突破2亿桶。预计2008年欧佩克原油需求平均为3200万桶/日，比上年下降260吨/日。2009年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为3110万桶/日，下降870吨/日。

Crude oil prices continued their bearish trend with the weak economic outlook foreseen to dent oil demand growth. Thestrengthening of the US dollar added to the downward momentum. Financial market turmoil strengthened the gloomysentiment dominating the global market. In monthly terms, the Basket fell $15.56/b or nearly 14% in September to standat an eight-month low of $96.85/b. The Basket continued to trend sharply lower in October as the evolving crisis in thefinancial sector indicated an increasingly weaker outlook for the world economy and hence demand growth. The Basketreached a twelve-month low of $72/b on 13 October, representing a decline of almost $69/b in little more than three months. The world economy is now estimated to grow 3.8% this year, 0.1 percentage points (pp) below last month’s estimate. Theforecast for 2009 has been revised down 0.4pp to 3.3% due to downward revisions across the board, as the fallout from thefinancial crisis impacts the real economy. In recent days the huge rescue packages, amounting to an estimated pledge of€1.9 trillion, announced by EU members have reinforced the effect of the already agreed US $700 billion package. Thecombined impact of the declared rescue plans appear to have finally succeeded in halting the downward spiral in equitymarkets, but it remains to be seen if this positive response will last once the details of the individual countries’ plansbecome clearer and the implementation process begins. Time is of the essence since already weakening economies in theOECD are expected to face recession, the depth and duration of which may be contained provided the banking sector canbe brought to function normally again in the near future. Within the OECD, US growth forecast for 2009 was reduced by0.7pp to 0.6%, Euro-zone growth by 0.4pp to 0.6% and Japanese growth trimmed to 0.3%, a downward revision of 0.7ppfrom last month. Growth forecasts for Developing Countries and China are also 0.2pp down next year and now stand at5.3% and 9.0% respectively. Declining US oil consumption continued to reduce OECD oil demand by more than 1.8% in 2008. Factors affecting worldoil demand such as the slowing economy, high retail prices and hurricanes led to a decline of more than 1.0 mb/d in totalOECD consumption. Non-OECD oil demand growth increased 1.2 mb/d y-o-y in September. Most of this is attributed toAsian and Middle Eastern oil demand. Total world oil demand growth for 2008 has been reduced to half of the initialforecast to stand now at 0.6 mb/d. In 2009, reduced economic growth outlook is expected to continue impacting oildemand. Hence, oil demand in the USA will be lower than initially expected, at least in the first half of the year. The likelyspillover to other economies will affect oil demand elsewhere to some degree. As a result, world oil demand growth fornext year has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d to show a growth of 0.8 mb/d. OECD oil demand is expected to shrink by0.4 mb/d next year; however, non-OECD countries’ oil demand growth is estimated to reach 1.1 mb/d with most of thegrowth coming from China, the Middle East, and India. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 has been revised down to stand at 0.3 mb/d over the previous year. The adjustmentswere made to accommodate the impact of hurricanes on US production, reduced oil output from Azerbaijan following agas leak, and other factors. For 2009, non-OPEC supply growth experienced an upward revision to stand at around1.0 mb/d. This was mainly due to revisions made to the current year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils now stand at4.7 mb/d in 2008 and 5.4 mb/d in 2009. In September, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, representing adrop of around 309 tb/d from the previous month, as production from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Angola saw significantdeclines. Product market sentiment improved temporarily after hurricanes Gustav and Ike, lifting product prices in both the physicaland futures markets. These developments in product prices along with falling crude prices due to the further deteriorationof financial markets have also lifted refining economics across the globe. However, the recent bullish developments inproduct markets are not expected to persist, as refineries on the US Gulf Coast have returned to normal operation over thelast two weeks and the risk of product shortages has eased significantly. However, with the approach of the winter season,the tight distillate situation may provide some support for crude prices, but it may not be enough to overshadow otherbearish factors in the market. OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.3 mb/d in September, representing a drop of 3% from the previous month, supported bylower OPEC fixtures outside the Middle East. OPEC sailings remained steady, averaging 23.3 mb/d. Arrivals in the USdeclined last month in line with the sharp 1.4 mb/d drop in crude imports. Spot freight rates for crude oil tankers showed aclear recovery from the weaker rates the month before, mainly due to high hurricane activity and the strong Middle Eastmarket. Product tanker freight rates rose in September with a more active West of Suez market. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike pushed US commercial oil stocks below the bottom of the five-year range for the first time thisyear in September. Inventories lost 24 mb to stand at 960 mb, with products contributing 23 mb to the draw as refinerieswere the most affected by the hurricanes. Crude stocks stood roughly at the five-year average of 300 mb. However, totalUS inventories rose sharply in the week ending 3 October as imports increased following the recovery in port infrastructure.Despite a drop in September, stocks remained comfortable in terms of days of forward cover as demand has weakened. InEU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories fell 4.5 mb to stand at the five-year average. Crude oil remained comfortable after abuild of more than 5 mb. Japan’s commercial oil stocks, particularly products, continued the upward trend in August.According to preliminary data, total stocks moved above 200 mb in late September for the first time since January 2007. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 32.0 mb/d, a decline of 260 tb/d from the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.1 mb/d, a decline of 870 tb/d.