2008年9月石油市场月报(2008)MOMR September 2008(2008)

由于经济前景疲弱削弱了需求，8月份欧佩克参考篮子有所回落。较高的出口额平息了市场情绪，而中国较低的进口额引发了对需求增长的担忧。不过，高加索地区的地缘政治冲突对市场造成了一些看涨情绪。8月份，该篮子价格下跌18.81美元/桶，跌幅超过14%，较7月份创纪录的水平大幅下滑。9月的第一周，随着美元回升至一年高点，经济前景恶化，加之古斯塔夫飓风造成的损失微乎其微，篮子继续回落。热带风暴Ike的来临推迟了前一次风暴的恢复。由于雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破产的影响，该公司股价继续下跌，至本月中旬达到91.35美元/桶。据估计，今年世界经济增长率为3.9%，与上月持平，而2009年的预测则下降了0.1%，为3.7%，这是由于经合组织和发展中国家对美国经济放缓向其他地区蔓延的影响进行了修正。由于第四大投行雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）申请破产以及美国和全球金融体系可能出现的后果，经济增长面临的金融风险不断加大，该预测可能会被下调。美国政府早些时候还接管了陷入困境的抵押贷款巨头房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）的控制权，房利美和房地美的垮台可能带来了系统性风险。与次贷相关的金融损失和减记已升至5100多亿美元。在经合组织（OECD）内部，2008年和2009年欧元区经济增长率分别下调0.1pp至1.3%和1.0%，日本经济增长率分别下调至0.8%（下调0.2%）和1.0%（下调0.1%）。这两个地区出现技术衰退的可能性不容忽视。2008年美国经济增长率为1.8%（增长0.2%），2009年为1.4%（增长0.1%），目前预计将超过日本和欧元区的增长率。这一前景为美元兑欧元升至一年高点提供了进一步支撑，但在雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）遭遇最严重困境后，美元放弃了其中一些收益。今年发展中国家的增长率保持在5.8%不变，2009年下降了0.1%至5.5%，原因是拉丁美洲、非洲和亚洲的增长率有所下降。由于美国石油需求急剧下降，经合组织8月份石油需求进一步下降。由于经济增长缓慢和零售价格高企，8月份同比下降了80万桶。相比之下，非经合组织国家（主要是中国、中东和亚洲）夏季石油需求增长4%，抵消了经合组织石油需求的下降。然而，随着最新数据显示北美石油需求意外强劲下降，世界总需求增长预测已下调0.10百万桶/日。因此，2008年世界石油需求预计将增长0.9百万桶/日至平均8680百万桶/日。2009年，世界石油需求预计将增长0.9百万桶/日至平均8770百万桶/日，与上次报告保持不变。非经合组织国家的石油需求增长120万桶/日，将占到未来世界石油需求增长的全部。2009年，交通部门将迎来最大的石油需求增长。影响nextyear石油需求增长的因素之一是取消发展中国家的价格补贴。预计2008年非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量为4990万桶/日，比上一年增加510桶/日，表明较上一次评估下降了70桶/日。由于最近飓风的全部影响仍在评估中，美国的估计可能会进一步修改。8月份的初步数据显示，全球供应量约为8630万桶/日，同比增长约3%。2009年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计平均为5081万桶/日，比上一年增加880吨/日。欧佩克的天然气和非常规油气预计在2008年达到490万桶/日，2009年达到550万桶/日。8月份，欧佩克的产量为3250万桶/日，与上月基本持平。美国墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂的预防性关闭，加上汽油库存的持续增加，过去几周大西洋盆地的产品价格和炼油利润率都有所上升。最近原油价格的大幅下跌也促成了炼油经济的积极发展。目前成品油市场的看涨情绪可能在未来几周继续，并为成品油和原油价格提供支撑。然而，现在断言产品市场在未来几个月内能够克服整体看跌趋势并占据市场领导地位还为时过早。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量较上月增长6%，平均接近1300万桶/日，中东以外地区的增长为支撑。石油输出国组织（OPEC）的平均出海量稳定在2330万桶/日。由于美国原油进口量下降，上个月抵达美国的人数下降。8月份，原油油轮的即期运价大幅下降34%，主要原因是超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮市场非常疲软。由于苏伊士东部市场强劲，8月份成品油轮运价稳定，小幅上涨1%。8月份，美国商业石油库存下降500万桶，至约9.83亿桶，保持赤字，5年平均值为2800万桶或3%。抽签结果是原油增加450万桶，产品库存减少960万桶。不过，由于需求减弱，从远期覆盖率来看，股市仍较为宽裕。由于飓风造成的预期中断，汽油库存减少了1500万桶，主要原因是进口减少。欧盟15国（EU-15plusnorway）的石油库存总量下降了1100万桶，今年以来首次低于5年平均水平。日本商业石油库存7月份大幅回升，自去年11月以来首次突破1.8亿桶。初步数据显示8月份进一步增加。预计2008年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3200万桶/日，比上年下降160吨/日。2009年，对欧佩克原油的平均需求预计为3130万桶/日，下降670吨/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket eased in August as the weaker economy outlook was seen denting demand. Higher OPECexports calmed market sentiment while China’s lower imports triggered concern over demand growth. However,geopolitical conflicts in the Caucasus contributed some bullish sentiment to the market. The Basket fell $18.81/b or morethan 14% in August, declining sharply from the record levels reached in July. In the first week of September, the Basketcontinued to retreat amid the recovery of the US dollar to a one-year high, the worsening economic prospects and minimaldamages by Hurricane Gustav. The approach of Tropical Storm Ike delayed recovery from the previous storm. The Basketcontinued to fall, pressured further by the fallout from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, reaching $91.35/b by mid-month. The world economy is estimated to grow at 3.9% this year, unchanged from last month, while the forecast for 2009 is0.1% lower at 3.7%, due to revisions for both OECD and Developing Countries as spillovers from the US slowdownspread to other regions. The forecast may be subject to downside revision due to the mounting financial risks to growth aswitnessed by the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank and its possible consequencesfor the US and global fiancial system. The US government had earlier also taken over control of the troubled mortgagegiants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose downfall may have posed a systemic risk. Subprime related financial lossesand writedowns have risen to over $510 bn. Within the OECD, Euro-zone growth was revised down 0.1pp in both 2008and 2009 to 1.3% and 1.0%, and Japanese growth was trimmed to 0.8% (down 0.2%) and 1.0% (down 0.1%). Thepossibility of a technical recession in both regions cannot be dismissed. US growth at 1.8% (up 0.2%) in 2008 and 1.4%(up 0.1%) in 2009 is now expected to exceed Japanese and Euro-zone growth. This prospect has lent further support to theUS dollar which rose to a one-year high versus the euro, but the US currency gave away some of these gains following thelatest plight at Lehman Brothers. Developing Countries’ growth is unchanged this year at 5.8%, and is 0.1% down to 5.5%in 2009, due to downward revisions for Latin America, Africa, and to a lesser extent Asia. OECD oil demand showed a further decline in August due to a steep fall in the US oil demand. This declined by 0.8 mb/dy-o-y in August resulting from slow economy and high retail prices. In contrast, summer oil demand growth of 4% in nonOECDcountries, mainly China, Middle East and Asia, offset the decline in OECD oil demand. However, with the mostrecent data showing an unexpectedly strong decline in oil demand in North America, the total world demand growthforecast has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d. Thus, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2008 to average86.8 mb/d. For 2009, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d to average 87.7 mb/d, unchanged from the lastreport. Non-OECD countries’ oil demand growth of 1.2 mb/d will account for all of the world oil demand growth nextyear. The transport sector will see the largest oil demand growth in 2009. One of the factors that might take a toll on nextyear’s oil demand growth is the removal of price subsidies in Developing Countries. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 is expected to average 49.9 mb/d, representing an increase of 510 tb/d over the previousyear, indicating a downward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment. The estimate for the USA may be subject tofurther revisions as the full impact of the recent hurricanes is still being assessed. Preliminary data for the month of Augustput global supply at around 86.3 mb/d, representing growth of around 3% y-o-y. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply isexpected to average 50.81 mb/d, representing an increase of 880 tb/d over the previous year. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionalsare expected to reach 4.9 mb/d in 2008 and 5.5 mb/d in 2009. In August, OPEC production stood at32.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month. Precautionary refinery shutdowns in the US Gulf Coast combined with the continuation of gasoline stock-draws boostedproduct prices and refining margins in the Atlantic Basin over the last few weeks. The recent sharp fall of crude prices alsocontributed to positive developments in refining economics. The current bullish sentiment in product markets maycontinue in the next few weeks and provide support for both product and crude oil prices. However, it is still too soon tosay that product markets would be able to overcome the overall bearish trends and assume market leadership in thecoming months. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 6% in August from the previous month to average close to 13 mb/d, supported byincreases outside the Middle East. OPEC sailings were steady averaging 23.3 mb/d. Arrivals in the US declined last monthin line with lower US crude imports. Spot freight rates for crude oil tankers declined sharply by 34% in August mainly dueto the very weak VLCC and Suezmax markets. Product tanker freight rates were steady in August with a marginal 1%increase due to the strong East of Suez market. US commercial oil stocks dropped 5 mb in August to stand at around 983 mb, keeping the deficit with the five-yearaverage at 28 mb or 3%. The draw was the result of an increase of 4.5 mb in crude oil and a drop of 9.6 mb in productstocks. However, due to weaker demand, stocks remained comfortable in terms of forward cover. Gasoline stocks lost asubstantial 15 mb on the back of lower imports, triggered by anticipated disruptions due to hurricanes. In EU-15 plusNorway, total oil inventories fell 11 mb and moved below the five-year average for the first time so far this year. Japan’scommercial oil stocks recovered sharply in July to move above 180 mb for the first time since last November. Preliminarydata show a further increase in August. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 32.0 mb/d, a decline of 160 tb/d from the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.3 mb/d, a decline of 670 tb/d.