2006年10月石油市场月报(2006)MOMR October 2006(2006)

继工业生产增长率上升和德国之后，欧元区2006年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率的估计数也有所上调。预计2006年欧元区国内生产总值将增长2.3%。美国的估计数不变，为3.4%。美国房地产业依然疲弱，但能源成本的下降如果持续下去，可能会支撑消费支出。在日本，企业投资有望保持经济增长势头，因为过剩产能的减少和稳固的利润应能支持企业现金流。国内生产总值的增长率可能达到2.8%，尽管一些不消费的支出有所减弱。2006年中国经济增长率的估计值保持在10.2%不变，但印度的估计值已升至8.1%。印度继续受益于所有行业的强劲增长：制造业、服务业和金融活动。总的来说，2006年世界经济增长预测仍保持在5%不变。欧元区的美好前景将延续到明年，2007年的GDP增长预期已增至1.6%。拉丁美洲和前苏联国家的增长预测也有所提高。对美国和日本的预测没有变化。据预测，2007年美国经济增长率将降至2.6%，而日本可能只会达到1.9%。预计2007年发展中国家的经济增长率也将下降，降至5.5%，中国的经济增长率也可能小幅降至9%。预计明年世界经济将增长4.4%。过去几个月石油价格的急剧下降很快就会对总体通胀率产生明显影响。即使油价持续走低，预计油价走低的经济效应也不会很大，主要金融中心的货币政策将受到限制，以使家庭和企业的支出符合生产潜力。这将降低对稀缺资源的需求压力，并最终降低通胀核心率。只要消费者实际收入受益于油价下跌带来的购买力上升，这可能要求各国央行延长紧缩过程的持续时间，但目前的经济增长率不会显著提高。在欧佩克稳定供应和经济增长放缓预期下，中东紧张局势缓解，导致9月份油价大幅下跌。亚洲炼油厂开工率下降，需求增长放缓，供应充足，这对该石油公司造成了下行压力，因为该公司冬季燃料储备充足。石油输出国组织（OPEC）一篮子参考原油的月平均价格下跌近10美元/桶，至59.34美元/桶，跌幅达14%。10月的头几周，该篮子原油价格继续下挫，至10月13日达到54.90美元/桶。随着驾驶季节的结束和稳定的馏出油库存，产品市场情绪发生了重大变化，对全球的产品价格和炼油厂利润率施加了下行压力。肩季炼油厂利润率适度下调并非超出市场预期，但在未来几个月内，由于秋季保养时间较短，加上蒸馏油和天然气库存较高，可能对成品油和原油价格构成威胁。然而，天气状况仍然是一个关键的外卡，因为比正常冬季更冷的西风圈可能会改变产品市场目前的看跌情绪。受产量下降和需求放缓的推动，亚洲欧佩克现货供应量连续第三个月下降，9月份平均为1230万桶/日，较上月下降50万桶/日。欧佩克的出海量增加了近100万桶/日，至近2390万桶/日，但仍低于2005年同期的50万桶/日。原油油轮市场情况喜忧参半，尽管有下降趋势，超大型油轮的运价仍保持强劲，而苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价在大多数航线上都有所下降。在成品油轮市场，尤其是苏伊士以西的油轮市场，这种疲软更为明显。10月初，原油和成品油油轮市场均出现显著下跌。据估计，2006年世界石油需求将增长100万桶/日或1.2%，达到平均8420万桶/日。根据2006年前三个季度的初步数据，2006年世界石油需求增长比上一个月同期下降了10万桶/日，较高的油价和相对较低的天然气价格主要影响了oecd国家的石油需求。美国9月份强劲的石油需求增长不足以抵消夏季前两个月的下降。因此，经合组织第三季度的石油需求同比减少了30万桶/日，第四季度有所回升。中东和中国经济强劲增长，第三季度石油需求同比增长，2007年世界石油需求增长预测保持不变，为130万桶/日或1.5%。中国和中东将分别以42万桶/日和30万桶/日的速度引领世界石油需求增长。2006年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5130万桶/日，比2005年增加110万桶/日，与上次评估相比有所上升。已经进行了一系列调整，包括经合组织国家生物柴油历史数据的增加，以及一些国家（主要是美国和澳大利亚）对传统石油项目时间表的修订。8月和九月的初步数据显示，非欧佩克国家的石油供应总量约为51 mb/d和51.7 mb/d，同比分别增长0.9 mb/d和2.8 mb/d。目前，非欧佩克国家计划外停产的预期已从上半年的平均60 mb/d降至不足0.1 mb/d。2007年，非欧佩克国家的石油平均供应量预计为5300万桶/日，比2006年增加180万桶/日。石油输出国组织9月份的平均产量为2970万桶/日，比上月下降了10万桶/日。经合组织的初步数据显示，经合组织石油净进口总额继续保持上升趋势，截至今年9月，达到2790万桶/日，比上个月增加了112000万桶/日，比2005年相应月份增加了近100万桶/日。美国石油净进口量小幅下降至1290万桶/日，但同比增长76万桶/日，受强劲库存推动。同样，日本的石油净进口在反弹至430万桶/日后，较上年同期大幅增长11%。中国的原油进口扭转了下降趋势，猛增约28万桶/日，至280万桶/日，这意味着石油净进口量为330万桶/日，同比增长38%，而印度石油净进口量继续徘徊在200万桶/日左右，同比增长3.5%。美国9月份商业石油库存总量为2200万桶至108870万桶，比去年同期和5年平均水平分别增长7.6%和10.0%。库存的增加完全来自于原油月度下降的产品。尽管油价下跌，但原油库存仍保持在较去年同期和5年平均水平高出7.1%和14.0%的舒适水平。转为16欧元（欧盟15国加挪威），商业石油库存总量下滑640万欧元，但仍高于5年平均水平6.4%，这完全是由于原油库存和中间馏分油库存进一步减少。据报道，8月份日本商业库存总量比上月增长6.1%，比上年同期和5年平均水平高出4%以上，这主要是由于产品库存增加。预计2006年欧佩克原油需求平均为2870万桶/日，上个月下调了20万桶/日。2007年，对欧佩克原油的需求预计平均为2810万桶/日，与2006年相比下降了60万桶/日。根据季度预测，2006年第4季度欧佩克原油需求预计为2870万桶/日，2007年第1季度为2920万桶/日，2007年第2季度为2700万桶/日。

Estimates of Euro-zone GDP growth for 2006 have been revised up following higher industrial production growth inFrance and Germany. The GDP of the Euro-zone is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2006. The estimate for the USA isunchanged at 3.4%. The US housing sector remains weak but lower energy costs, if sustained, may support consumerspending. In Japan, business investment is expected to maintain the momentum of the economy as a reduction in excesscapacity and solid profits should support corporate cash flows. GDP growth may reach 2.8% despite some weakening inconsumer spending. The estimate for Chinese growth in 2006 is unchanged at 10.2% but the estimate for India has beenraised to 8.1%. India continues to benefit from strong growth in all sectors: manufacturing, services and financialactivities. Overall, the 2006 forecast for world growth remains unchanged at 5%. The better outlook for the Euro-zone extends into next year and the forecast for GDP growth in 2007 has been increased to1.6%. The growth forecasts for Latin America and the countries of the Former Soviet Union have also been raised. Therehas been no change to the forecasts for the United States or Japan. US economic growth is forecast to fall to 2.6% in 2007and Japan may only achieve 1.9%. Growth in developing countries is also expected to be lower in 2007, falling to 5.5% andChina may also see a modest deceleration to 9%. The world economy is forecast to grow by 4.4% next year. The sharp decline in the oil prices over the past months should soon have a noticeable impact on headline rates ofinflation. The economic effect of lower oil prices is not expected to be large, even if lower prices are sustained.Monetary policy is set to be restrictive in the major financial centres in order to bring household and business spendinginto line with productive potential. This will lower demand pressures on scarce resources and, eventually, reduce corerates of inflation. In so far as consumer real incomes benefit from the higher purchasing power created by lower oilprices, this may require the central banks to extend the duration of the tightening process but ongoing rates of economicgrowth will not be significantly higher. Easing tensions in the Mideast amid steady OPEC supply and expectations of slower economic growth caused a sharpdrop in prices September. Ample supply amid lower refinery rates in Asia halting demand growth exerted downwardpressure on the petroleum complex amid a healthy winter fuel stockpile. The monthly average of the OPEC ReferenceBasket fell nearly $10/b or 14% to average $59.34/b. In the first weeks of October, the Basket continued to drift downreaching $54.90/b on 13 October. With the end of the driving season and steady distillate stock-builds, product market sentiment changed significantly,exerting downward pressure on product prices and refinery margins across the globe. A moderate downward correctionin refinery margins during the shoulder season is not outside market expectation, but the combination of a light autumnmaintenance schedule with high distillate and natural gas stocks could be a threat to product and crude prices over thenext few months. However, weather conditions remain a key wild card as colder-than-normal winter in the WesternHemishphere may turn the product market’s current bearish sentiment. Asia OPEC spot fixtures continued to decline for the third consecutive month, averaging 12.3 mb/d in September, a dropof 0.5 mb/d from the previous month, driven by the decline in production and the slow-down in demand. Sailings fromOPEC increased almost 1.0 mb/d to nearly 23.9 mb/d but remain 0.5 mb/d below the corresponding month of 2005. Thecrude tanker market showed a mixed picture with freight rates for VLCCs remaining strong despite a downward trend,while Suezmax and Aframax saw rates deteriorate on most routes. The weakness was more pronounced in the producttanker market, especially for tankers trading in West of Suez. Both crude and product tanker markets witnessedsignificant declines in early October. World oil demand in 2006 is estimated to grow by 1.0 mb/d or 1.2% to average 84.2 mb/d. In light of preliminary data forthe first three quarters of 2006, world oil demand growth was revised down by 0.1 mb/d for 2006 from the last MOMR.Warm weather, higher oil prices and the relatively-lower natural gas prices affected oil demand mostly in the OECDcountries. Robust US oil demand growth in September was not sufficient to offset the decline seen in the first two monthsof summer. Hence, OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter was revised down by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y, with a recovery inthe fourth quarter. Strong economic growth in both the Middle East and China increased y-o-y third quarter oil demand.World oil demand growth forecast for the year 2007 remains unchanged at a moderate rate of 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%. China andthe Middle East will lead the world oil demand growth with 0.42 mb/d and 0.30 mb/d respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.3 mb/d in 2006, representing an increase of 1.1 mb/d over 2005 and aslight upward revision versus the last assessment. A series of adjustments have been made including the addition ofhistorical data for biodiesel in OECD countries as well as revisions to conventional oil project schedules in a number ofcountries, but primarily in the USA and Australia. Preliminary data for the month of August and September puts totalnon-OPEC supply at around 51 mb/d and 51.7 mb/d, representing a y-o-y growth of 0.9 mb/d and 2.8 mb/d respectively.Expectations for unplanned shutdowns in non-OPEC have now been reduced to less than 0.1 mb/d from an average of0.6 mb/d in the first half of the year. In 2007, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 53 mb/d, representing anincrease of 1.8 mb/d versus 2006. The main contributions are expected to come from FSU, Africa and North America.In September, OPEC production averaged 29.7 mb/d, a drop of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month. OECD Preliminary data shows that OECD total net oil imports continued their upward trend to reach 27.9 mb/d inSeptember, an increase of 112,000 mb/d over the previous month and almost 1.0 mb/d higher than the correspondingmonth of 2005. US net oil imports inched down slightly to 12.9 mb/d, but displayed y-o-y growth of 760,000 b/d, drivenby strong stock-builds. Similarly, Japan’s net oil imports showed a significant growth of 11% from a year earlier afterrebounding to 4.3 mb/d. China’s crude oil imports reversed the downward trend and surged by around 280,000 b/d inAugust to 2.8 mb/d, implying net oil imports of 3.3 mb/d which corresponds to 38% y-o-y growth while India’s net oilimports continued to hover around 2.0 mb/d, an increase of 3.5% from a year earlier. Total commercial oil inventories in the USA witnessed a build of 22.0 mb to 1,088.7 mb in September, an increase of7.6% and 10.0% above the year-ago level and the five-year average. The stock-build came entirely from products ascrude oil declined on a monthly basis. Despite the draw, crude oil stocks remained at comfortable levels of 7.1% and14.0% above the same month last year and the five-year average. Moving to Eur-16 (Eu-15 plus Norway), totalcommercial oil stocks slipped by 6.4 mb but were still 6.4% above the five-year average, which was entirely due to afurther reduction in crude oil inventories as well as middle distillate stocks. Japan’s total commercial inventoriesreported an increase of 6.1 % in August compared to the previous month, more than 4% above the year-ago level andthe five-year average, mainly as a result of the rise in product stocks. The demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.7 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.2 mb/dversus last month. In 2007, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, representing a decline of0.6 mb/d versus 2006. On a quarterly basis, the forecast shows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at 28.7 mb/d in4Q06, 29.2 mb/d in 1Q07 and 27 mb/d in 2Q07.