2016年7月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR July 2016(2016)

石油市场亮点

原油价格变动6月份，欧佩克一篮子参考原油价格上涨2.63美元，至平均45.84美元/桶。ICE布伦特指数上涨2.28美元至49.93美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI指数上涨2.06美元至48.85美元/桶。投机者本月进一步削减了所有市场的净多头头寸。6月份，洲际布伦特原油期货价格从上月的85美元/桶上涨至1.07美元/桶。

世界经济

考虑到英国退出欧盟可能带来的经济影响，今年世界经济增长率从3.1%下调至3.0%。据预测，2017年全球经济增长率为3.1%。经合组织的增长率从2016年的1.9%降至1.8%，2017年的标准为1.7%。2016年对主要新兴经济体的预测大体保持不变。中国和印度今年的增长率分别为6.5%和7.5%，预计2017年增长率将略微放缓至6.1%和7.2%。据预测，巴西和俄罗斯将从两年的衰退中复苏，并在2017年分别增长0.4%和0.7%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求增长预计约为120万桶/日，与上一份报告的平均值9420万桶/日基本持平。2017年世界石油需求增长的初步预测为120万桶/日，平均值9530万桶/日。预计大部分增长将来自非经合组织，预计将贡献110万桶/日，尽管oecd的需求将保持在10万桶/天的正区域。

世界石油供应

预计2016年非欧佩克国家的石油供应将出现90万桶/日的强劲收缩，自上次报告以来下降了10万桶/日，平均为560万桶/日。这主要是由于2006年第二季度加拿大和美国的野火导致石油产量下降。2017年度非欧佩克石油供应量预计将下降0.1 Mb/d，平均为55.9 Mb/d。巴西和加拿大是明年经济增长的主要驱动力，而墨西哥、美国和挪威预计将出现下滑。预计2017年欧佩克天然气产量将增长15万桶/日。二级消息人士称，今年6月，欧佩克14国原油产量增加了264 tb/d，平均为3286 mb/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

由于中间馏分油和燃料油流入减少，出口机会增加，缓解了大西洋盆地供过于求的环境。尽管汽油受到地区供过于求的影响，但这使得炼油厂的利润率略有提高。与此同时，亚洲炼油厂利润率下降，因为油价顶部的疲软超过了强劲的地区汽油和燃料油需求，而这些需求受到发电需求的推动。

油轮市场

脏油轮现货运价在6月份平均下降。这主要是由于所有报告航线的超大型油轮运价持续下降。苏伊士型油轮现货运价受到西非市场走强的支撑，因船舶供应偶尔紧张。阿芙拉型油轮的运价与前一个月持平，一些港口的活动和维护工作受到限制。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）5月份商业石油库存下降至3063亿桶。在这个水平上，oeccommercial石油库存比五年平均水平高出约32900万桶，其中原油和成品油分别显示盈余19900万桶和13000万桶。就前几天的覆盖率而言，经合组织商业股为65.9天，比五年平均水平高出约6.7天。

供需平衡

预计2016年欧佩克原油需求平均为3190万桶/日，比上年增加190万桶/日。2017年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3300万桶/日，比今年增加110万桶/日。

Oil market highlights 

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket increased by $2.63 to average $45.84/b in June. ICE Brentended up $2.28 at $49.93/b and NYMEX WTI gained $2.06 to stand at $48.85/b.Speculators cut net long positions further this month in all markets. The ICE Brent-WTIspread widened to $1.07/b in June, up from 85/b in the previous month.

 World Economy 

World economic growth for this year was revised down to 3.0% from 3.1%, consideringpotential economic impacts from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Global growth for 2017 isforecast at 3.1%. OECD growth has been reduced to 1.8% from 1.9% for 2016 and standsat 1.7% in 2017. The 2016 forecasts for the major emerging economies remain broadlyunchanged. China and India are seen expanding this year at 6.5% and 7.5%, respectively,and growth is forecast to slow slightly to 6.1% and 7.2% in 2017. Brazil and Russia areforecast to rebound from a two-year recession and grow by 0.4% and 0.7% in 2017. 

World Oil Demand

 World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to be around 1.2 mb/d, broadly unchangedfrom the previous report to average 94.2 mb/d. The initial forecast for world oil demandgrowth in 2017 stands at 1.2 mb/d to average 95.3 mb/d. The bulk of growth is projected tooriginate in the non-OECD, which is expected to contribute 1.1 mb/d, although OECDdemand will remain in positive territory at 0.1 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is forecast to show a stronger contraction of 0.9 mb/d,following a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d since the last report, to average 56.0 mb/d. Thisis mainly due to lower oil output from Canada in 2Q16 due to the wildfire, as well as fromthe US. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017 is projected to decline by 0.1 mb/d to average55.9 mb/d. Brazil and Canada are the main drivers of growth next year while Mexico, theUS, and Norway are expected to see declines. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by0.15 mb/d in 2017. In June, OPEC-14 crude production increased by 264 tb/d to average32.86 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Higher export opportunities amid lower inflows of middle distillates and fuel oil have easedthe oversupply environment in the Atlantic Basin. This has allowed refinery margins tostrengthen slightly, despite gasoline being impacted by regional oversupply. Meanwhile,refinery margins in Asia fell as the weakness seen at the top of the barrel outweighedstrong regional gasoil and fuel oil demand, which have been boosted by power generationrequirements.

 Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in June. This was mainly on the back ofthe continued decline in VLCC rates on all reported routes. Suexmax spot freight rateswere supported by a strengthening market in West Africa on occasional tightness in vesselavailability. Aframax freight rates were flat from the month before, suffering from limitedactivity and maintenance work at some ports.

 Stock Movements

 OECD commercial oil stocks fell in May to stand at 3,063 mb. At this level, OECDcommercial oil stocks are around 329 mb above the five-year average, with crude andproducts indicating a surplus of 199 mb and 130 mb, respectively. In terms of days offorward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 65.9 days, some 6.7 days higher thanthe five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is expected to average 31.9 mb/d, an increase of1.9 mb/d over the previous year. In 2017, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at33.0 mb/d, a gain of 1.1 mb/d over the current year.