2017年3月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR March 2017(2017)

原油价格变动

石油输出国组织（OPEC）2月份参考原油价格连续第三个月上涨，最终上涨约2%，至平均53.37美元/桶。原油期货价格连续第二个月在相对狭窄的区间内交易。欧佩克和一些非欧佩克产油国对供应调整的高度遵守支撑了上涨。在原油期货市场，2月份ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨1%，至平均56美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期货价格上涨1.6%，至53.46美元/桶。布伦特WTI原油期货价差收窄至2.53美元/桶，这为美国的套利经济提供了支撑。投机性活动连续第三个月创下新高，为油价提供了额外支撑。

世界经济

2016年和2017年，全球经济增长预期分别保持在3.0%和3.2%。经合组织2017年的增长率保持在1.9%不变，美国、欧元区和日本的增长率没有任何变化。预计2017年中国经济将增长6.2%，与上一份报告持平。印度目前预计将出现小幅减速，2017年将小幅下调至7.0%。俄罗斯2017年的经济增长率仍保持在1.0%，而巴西的经济预测略高，为0.5%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求增长预测略高于50 tb/d，目前显示增长138万桶/d，平均95.05万桶/d。主要原因是经合组织欧洲、亚太地区和中国的石油需求高于预期，部分被中东的小幅下调所抵消。2017年，石油需求增长预计约为126万桶/日，较上月预测高出70吨/日，达到平均9631万桶/日。上调的原因是经合组织（OECD）欧洲和亚太地区对石油需求的更乐观预期。

世界石油供应

根据上一份报告，非欧佩克国家的石油供应增长预计将在2016年收缩66万桶/日，达到平均5734万桶/日。加拿大和其他经合组织欧洲地区16年第4季度的增长被美国、挪威、澳大利亚、文莱和阿塞拜疆的下调所抵消。2017年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将增长40万桶/日，而此前的修正值为16万桶/日，平均为57.74万桶/日。加拿大油砂和美国供应前景的改善是修正的主要因素。2007年欧佩克天然气产量下调了20 tb/d，目前显示增长为13万桶/d。根据第二来源，2月份欧佩克天然气产量下降了14万桶/d，平均为3196万桶/d。

产品市场和炼油业务

大西洋流域的产品市场表现喜忧参半。较高的汽油出口机会和强劲的中间馏分油需求支撑了欧洲市场，而美国的利润率则因桶顶和桶底的疲软而下降。与此同时，尽管由于汽油市场的一些看跌信号，亚洲炼油厂利润率略有下降，但仍保持在春季炼油厂维护季节的健康水平。

油轮市场

二月份脏油轮的即期运价下降，所有报告航线上的所有船只的运价都下降。受活动受限、东部农历新年假期和船队扩张的影响，运费下降。超大型油轮、苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价比一个月前平均下降了21%。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）1月份商业石油库存增长至30.06亿桶。在这个水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比五年平均水平高出2.78亿桶。原油和成品油的盈余分别为209mb和69mb a，高于季节标准。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业股为63.8天，比5年平均水平高出约4.9天。

供需平衡

2016年，欧佩克原油需求量为3160万桶/日，较上年增长约190万桶/日。2017年，欧佩克原油需求预计为3240万桶/日，比今年高出约70万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket rose in February for the third consecutive month, ending up about 2% to average$53.37/b. Crude futures, traded in a relatively narrow range for the second month in a row. High compliance withsupply adjustments by OPEC and some non-OPEC producers supported gains. In the crude futures markets,ICE Brent ended 1% higher to average $56/b in February and NYMEX WTI increased 1.6% to $53.46/b. TheBrent-WTI spread narrowed at $2.53/b, which is supporting arbitrage economics to the US. Speculative activity hita fresh record high for the third month in a row, providing additional support to oil prices. 

World Economy 

Global economic growth expectations remain at 3.0% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. OECD growth in 2017 isunchanged at 1.9%, with growth in US, Euro-zone and Japan seeing no revisions. China is expected to grow by6.2% in 2017, unchanged from the previous report. India is now expected to see a slight deceleration, following amarginal downward revision to 7.0% in 2017. Russia’s 2017 growth remains at 1.0%, while the forecast for Brazilwas revised slightly higher to 0.5%. 

World Oil Demand 

The world oil demand growth estimate for 2016 was revised marginally higher by around 50 tb/d to now showgrowth of 1.38 mb/d to average 95.05 mb/d. Revisions were driven primarily by higher-than-anticipated 4Q16 oildemand in OECD Europe, and Asia Pacific, as well as China, partially offset by minor downward adjustments inthe Middle East. For 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.26 mb/d, higher by 70 tb/d fromprevious month projections, to average 96.31 mb/d. The upward adjustments were due to more optimisticexpectations for oil demand in OECD Europe, as well as Asia Pacific. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth is estimated to show a contraction of 0.66 mb/d in 2016, in line with the previousreport, to average 57.34 mb/d. Higher 4Q16 growth in Canada and Other OECD Europe was offset by downwardrevisions in the US, Norway, Australia, Brunei and Azerbaijan. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to growby 0.40 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.16 mb/d to average 57.74 mb/d. An improving outlook forCanadian oil sands and US supply were the main contributors to the revision. OPEC NGLs production in 2017was revised down by 20 tb/d to now show growth of 0.13 mb/d. In February, OPEC production decreased by0.14 mb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.96 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in the Atlantic Basin. Higher export opportunities for gasoline andstrong middle distillates demand supported the European market, while margins fell in the US due to theweakening seen at the top and bottom of the barrels. Meanwhile, refinery margins in Asia continued to be healthyahead of the spring refinery maintenance season, despite a slight fall due to some bearish signals in the gasolinemarket.

 Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in February, with rates falling for all vessels on all reported routes. Lowerfreight rates were registered on the back of limited activity, the Chinese New Year holidays in the East and fleetexpansions. VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax rates declined 21% on average from a month before. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose in January to stand at 3,006 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stockswere 278 mb above the five-year average. Crude and products showed a surplus of around 209 mb and 69 mbabove the seasonal norm respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at63.8 days, some 4.9 days higher than the five-year average.

 Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 stands at 31.6 mb/d, some 1.9 mb/d higher than in the previous year. For 2017,demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.4 mb/d, around 0.7 mb/d higher than in the current year.