2014年9月石油市场月报(2014)MOMR September 2014(2014)

原油价格变动8月份，欧佩克参考篮子下跌4.86美元，至100.75美元/桶。纽约商品交易所指数下跌6.32美元，至96.08美元/桶，ICE布伦特指数下跌4.79美元，至103.40美元/桶。在供应充足和需求低迷的情况下，投机者大幅削减净多头头寸。随着俄克拉荷马州库欣（Cushing）股市最终停滞不前，布伦特原油期货价格上涨至7.30美元/桶左右。2014年和2015年世界经济增长率分别保持在3.1%和3.4%不变。2014年第二季度美国国内生产总值好于预期，被欧元区持续的挑战和日本2014年第二季度国内生产总值增长的大幅下降所抵消。这使得2014年和2015年OECDGDP增长预测分别保持在1.8%和2.0%。对中国和印度的预期保持不变，中国增长7.4%和7.2%，印度增长5.5%和5.8%。巴西2014年和2015年分别下调至0.7%和1.4%，俄罗斯2014年和2015年的全球石油需求增长预测分别下调至0.3%和1.1%。2014年世界石油需求增长预计将达到105万桶/日，下调幅度约为50吨/日，主要是由于经济合作与发展区域的表现弱于预期。2015年，世界石油需求预计将增加119万桶/日，这是一个微小的向下调整，因为经合组织增长放缓抵消了非经合组织地区的向上修正。2014年，世界石油供应增长预计将增加168万桶/日，继上个月的180吨/日修正之后。2015年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应量预计将达到124万桶/日，较之前的预测下降30桶/日。据预测，欧佩克天然气和非常规液体在2015年将增长20万桶/日，达到平均60.3万桶/日。8月份，欧佩克的原油产量按次要来源计算增加了231吨/日，达到平均30.35万桶/日。大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场在美国汽油需求强劲和紧缩的情况下得到了支持库存下降带来的情绪。稳定的中间馏分油需求和流入该地区的资金减少阻止了欧洲利润率的下降，而美国利润率则因WTI价格下跌而得到提振。在亚洲，轻质馏分油市场走弱导致炼油厂利润率继续走弱。由于低吨位需求和活动减少，8月份脏油油轮市场普遍疲软。苏伊士东部的清洁油轮运价有所提高，但西部略有下降。与上个月相比，欧佩克和中东的航行量有所下降，尽管除远东地区外，所有地区的抵达量都有所增加。7月份，商业石油库存有所增加，但仍低于5年平均水平3700万桶。原油显示出约2200万英镑的盈余，而产品则出现5900万英镑的赤字。就远期覆盖率而言，经合组织7月份商业库存为58.2天，8月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油总库存增长约370万桶，比5年平均水平高出约100万桶。原油和产品库存分别出现700万桶和300万桶的盈余。2014年欧佩克原油供需平衡从上个月的29.50万桶/日下调了20万桶/日。2015年，欧佩克原油需求量也下调了20万桶/日，降至29.20万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket fell by $4.86 in August to stand at $100.75/b. Nymex WTIdeclined by $6.32 to $96.08/b and ICE Brent dropped $4.79 to $103.40/b. Speculatorssharply cut net long positions amid ample supply and low demand. The Brent-WTI spreadwidened to around $7.30/b as stock draws at Cushing, Oklahoma, have finally stalled.World EconomyWorld economic growth for 2014 and 2015 remains unchanged at 3.1% and 3.4%respectively. A better-than-expected US GDP in 2Q14 was offset by on-going challengesin the Euro-zone and a large decline in 2Q14 GDP growth in Japan. This kept the OECDGDP growth forecast at 1.8% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015. Expectations for China andIndia remain unchanged, with China growing at 7.4% and 7.2%, and India at 5.5% and5.8%. Brazil has been revised down to 0.7% in 2014 and 1.4% in 2015, and Russia’sGDP growth forecast has also been lowered to 0.3% in 2014 and 1.1% in 2015.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2014 is expected to reach 1.05 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of around 50 tb/d, mainly due to the weaker-than-expected performance of theOECD region. In 2015, world oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.19 mb/d,representing a marginal downward adjustment, as an upward revision in the non-OECDregion was offset by slower OECD growth.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to increase by 1.68 mb/d in 2014, following anupward revision of 180 tb/d from last month. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected togrow by 1.24 mb/d, representing a downward adjustment of 30 tb/d from the previousforecast. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d in2015 to average 6.03 mb/d. In August, OPEC crude oil production according tosecondary sources increased by 231 tb/d to average 30.35 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin saw support from strong US gasoline demand amida tightening sentiment due to falling inventories. Steady middle distillate demand andlower inflows into the region prevented European margins from dropping while USmargins were boosted by falling WTI prices. In Asia, the weaker light distillates marketcaused refinery margins to continue weakening.Tanker MarketA general weak sentiment was seen in the dirty tanker market in August on the back oflow tonnage demand and reduced activities. Clean tanker freight rates improved East ofSuez but encountered a slight decline in the West. OPEC and Middle East sailingsdeclined compared to the previous month, although arrivals in all regions were higher,except in the Far East.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil inventories rose in July, but remained 37 mb below the five-yearaverage. Crude showed a surplus of around 22 mb, while products registered a deficit of59 mb. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 58.2 days in July.Preliminary data for August shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by around3.7 mb, which is around 10.0 mb above the five-year average. Crude and product stocksshowed surpluses of 7.0 mb and 3.0 mb, respectively.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previousmonth to stand at 29.5 mb/d. In 2015, required OPEC crude was also revised down by0.2 mb/d to stand at 29.2 mb/d.