2007年3月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR March 2007(2007)

欧佩克（OPEC）一篮子参考原油的月平均价格2月份上涨3.72美元，涨幅超过7%，至平均54.45美元/桶，此前1月份下跌近13%。虽然美国的寒流重振了市场看涨，但对地缘政治的担忧仍保持着波动性。3月上半月，由于石油产品库存增加，美国炼油厂出现问题，保持警觉。随着夏季燃料库存的出现，欧洲炼油利润率的提高也被视为对市场坚挺的支持。。。3月上半月，该篮子平均价格为57.78美元/桶，本月早些时候达到58.64美元/桶的峰值。3月14日，该篮子价格为57.14美元/桶。

2006年世界经济增长率为5.3%，2007年为4.6%，与上月持平。除中国外，发展中国家2007年的增长率预计为5.7%，2006年为6.3%，而经合组织2007年的增长率预计为2.5%，2006年为3.1%。美国的数据喜忧参半，显示2007年经济增长放缓，市场担忧美国次级抵押贷款市场问题的广泛金融影响。日本的经济复苏势头似乎正在增强，而欧元区的经济指标则显示，日本经济将迎来又一年的稳健增长，尽管增速较去年有所下降。最近世界金融市场的动荡始于2月27日的中国，蔓延至全球股市，引发了人们对全球经济放缓的担忧。不过，几天之内，市场已经企稳，挽回了部分损失，但由于美国房地产业的担忧，市场依然紧张，尤其是最近几天。央行反应迅速，令市场放心，基本经济状况依然良好。然而，世界经济前景潜在的下行风险正在显现。

随着入冬的姗姗来迟，北美石油需求加快。燃料油需求强劲，影响全球石油总需求。据预测，2007年世界石油需求增长将达到130万桶/日或1.5%，较上一个月环比增长10万桶/日。北美第一季度的石油需求量修正后增加了10万桶/日，平均为2545万桶/日，增长了30万桶/日。经合组织其他地区的暖冬导致石油需求量大幅下降。2006年，第一和第四季度的温暖天气对全球石油需求产生了负面影响。下降最多的产品是燃料油，主要是由于经合组织国家的燃料转换。2006年世界石油总需求增长估计为80万桶/日或1.0%，与上一个月环比基本持平。

2007年非欧佩克石油供应预计平均为5060万桶/日，比上一年增加120万桶/日，较上一次评估下降4.6万桶/日，主要是由于2006年第4季度的基线修订。2月份的初步数据显示，欧佩克石油供应量为5050万桶/日。2006年，非欧佩克石油供应量平均为4950万桶/日，较上一年增加了50万桶/日，较上一次评估下降了17000桶/日。这些修订主要是由于在当年最后一个季度的调整。美国和一些发展中国家的下调被英国行业的上调部分抵消。欧佩克原油平均日产量2996万桶，与上月基本持平。

美国持续的寒冷天气以及炼油厂的堵塞和管道问题为产品和原油价格提供了支撑。然而，美国和亚洲的产品价格未能跟上原油价格，导致这些市场的炼油利润率略微下降。在欧洲，产品市场表现好于原油市场，导致布伦特原油炼油厂利润率上升。过去几周美国成品油库存的减少，加上炼油厂的维修和计划外的炼油厂停产，以及农业部门的需求增加，可能会在未来几周对原油和成品油价格形成支撑。不过，随着炼油厂检修计划的完成，预计成品油市场将失去部分目前的强势，并对炼油利润率和原油价格构成压力。

初步数据显示，1月份经合组织原油进口量平均为3070万桶/日，比上月增加323000桶/日。产品进口量增加了40万桶/日，达到平均1260万桶/日。在美国，原油进口量在2月份下降了58万桶/日，达到950万桶/日，而日本的进口量在同一个月小幅下降了10万桶/日。1月份，中国原油净进口量反弹至316万桶/日，较上月增加约64.5万桶/日，原因是进口量增长了0.50万桶/日，而出口量下降了14.4万桶/日。1月份，中国石油净进口总量比上月增加100万桶/日，比去年同期增长11%。印度1月份的贸易没有出现任何重大变化，原油进口为236万桶/日，产品净出口为80万桶/日。

由于季节性维护和非计划停产，美国和欧洲炼油量下降，导致2月份这两个地区的产品库存下降。美国成品油库存减少4660万桶，而原油库存仅小幅增加30万桶，商业石油库存总量为9870万桶，较上月减少4630万桶。在欧盟16国（15欧元加上挪威），石油库存总量为11.43亿欧元，比上个月减少了1100万欧元。欧盟16国近三分之二的衰退来自产品。尽管如此，美国和欧盟16国的库存仍比五年平均水平高出1600万和5100万。今年1月，日本商业石油库存扭转了这一趋势，增加了200万桶至2亿桶，意味着比5年平均水平高出16%的盈余，但2月份的初步数据显示，库存下降至1.90亿桶以下。

据估计，2006年欧佩克原油的平均需求为3040万桶/日。2007年，欧佩克原油的平均需求量预计为3040万桶/日左右。按季度计算，欧佩克原油的需求量预计分别为3130万桶/日、2940万桶/日、3040万桶/日和3050万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket’s monthly average rallied $3.72 or over 7% in February to average $54.45/b, after droppingnearly 13% in January. While a cold snap in the USA revived market bullishness, concern in the geopolitics kept volatilityintact. In the first half of March, refinery problems in the USA amid draws on petroleum product inventories kept alertness inplace. Improved refining margins in Europe were also seen lending support to market firmness as summer fuel stockpilingemerged... The Basket averaged $57.78/b in the first half of March, after peaking to $58.64/b earlier in the month. On14 March, the Basket stood at $57.14/b. 

World economic growth at 5.3% in 2006 and 4.6% in 2007 remains unchanged from last month. Developing Countries,excluding China, are forecast to grow at 5.7% in 2007 from 6.3% in 2006, while OECD growth for 2007 is forecast at 2.5% in2007 from 3.1% in 2006. Data for the US is mixed, suggesting moderating growth in 2007, amidst worries on the widerfinancial implications of problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market. The economic recovery appears to be gainingmomentum in Japan, while in the Euro-zone, economic indicators point to another year of solid growth, albeit at lower ratesthan last year. The recent turmoil in world financial markets which started on 27 February in China and spread to equitymarkets worldwide fueled fears of slowdown in the global economy. However, within days, markets had stabilized, recoupingsome of the losses, but remain nervous, especially in recent days, due to concerns in the US housing sector. Central Bankshave been quick to respond, reassuring markets that the underlying economic conditions remained sound. However, potentialdownside risks to the world economic outlook are coming to the fore.

      Oil demand in North America picked up pace with the belated start to winter. Fuel oil demand was strong, affecting totalworld oil demand. World oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, an upward revision of0.1 mb/d from the last MOMR. First-quarter oil demand in North America was revised up by 0.1 mb/d to average25.45 mb/d, representing growth of 0.3 mb/d. Warm winter in other OECD regions led to a major decline in oildemand. For 2006, warm weather in the first and fourth quarters negatively affected global oil demand. The productwhich declined the most was fuel oil, mainly due to fuel switching in the OECD countries. Total world oil demandgrowth for 2006 is estimated at 0.8 mb/d or 1.0%, broadly unchanged from the last MOMR. 

Non-OPEC supply in 2007 is expected to average 50.6 mb/d, an increase of 1.2 mb/d over the previous year and a downwardrevision of 46,000 b/d from the last assessment, mainly due to baseline revisions for 4Q06. Preliminary data for February putsnon-OPEC supply at 50.5 mb/d. In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply averaged 49.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/dover the previous year and a downward revision of 17,000 b/d compared with the last assessment. The revisions weremainly due to adjustments in the final quarter of that year. Downward revisions in the USA and some DevelopingCountries were partly offset by upward revisions in the UK sector. OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.96 mb/d inFebruary, broadly unchanged from the previous month.

  Continued cold weather in the USA along with refinery snags and pipeline problems provided support for product andcrude prices. However, product prices in the USA and Asia failed to keep up with crude prices, leading to marginallylower refinery margins in those markets. In Europe, product market performance was better than in the crude market,resulting in a rise in Brent crude oil refinery margins. A draw on product stocks in the USA over the last few weeks,along with refinery maintenance and unplanned refinery outages and higher demand from the agricultural sector, maylend support to crude and product prices over the coming weeks. However, with the completion of the refinerymaintenance schedule, product markets are expected to lose some of their current strength and exert pressure on refinerymargins and crude oil prices. 

Preliminary data shows that OECD crude oil imports averaged 30.7 mb/d in January, an increase of 323,000 b/d over theprevious month. Product imports rose by 0.4 mb/d to average 12.6 mb/d. In the USA, crude imports fell 0.58 mb/d to9.5 mb/d in February, while Japan’s imports edged down 100,000 b/d in the same month. China’s net crude oil importsrebounded to reach 3.16 mb/d in January, a gain of around 645,000 b/d over the previous month, resulting from a0.5 mb/d growth in imports versus a 144,000 b/d drop in exports. China’s total net oil imports in January increased by1.0 mb/d over the previous month and 11% over the same month last year. India’s trade did not see any significantchanges in January with crude imports at 2.36 mb/d and net product exports at 0.8 mb/d. 

Lower refining runs in USA and Europe due to seasonal maintenance and unplanned shutdowns left product inventories lowerin these two regions in February. US product stocks decreased by 46.6 mb while crude inventories saw only a minor gain of0.3 mb, leaving total commercial oil stocks at 987 mb, representing a drop of 46.3 mb from the previous month. In EU-16(Eur-15 plus Norway), total oil stocks stood at 1,143 mb, down 11 mb from the previous month. Almost two thirds of thedecline in EU-16 came from products. Nevertheless, both US and EU-16 stocks remained 16 mb and 51 mb above the fiveyearaverage. In January, Japan’s commercial oil stocks reversed the trend, increasing 2 mb to 200 mb, implying a surplus of16% above the five-year average, but preliminary data for February showed that stocks moved down below 190 mb. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is estimated to average 30.4 mb/d. In 2007, the demand for OPEC crude is expected toaverage at the same level of around 30.4 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is expected at 31.3 mb/d,29.4 mb/d, 30.4 mb/d and 30.5 mb/d respectively.