2007年9月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR September 2007(2007)

8月，欧佩克参考指数下跌4.4%或3.18美元，收于68.71美元/桶。对经济风险和股市动荡可能削弱能源需求的担忧抵消了炼油厂停产和原油库存持续下降造成的季节性燃料库存下降。今年9月，欧佩克（OPEC）会议将产量上限提高至2730万桶/日，试图缓解供应方面的担忧，因为在一个落后的市场上，库存正在减少。然而，在墨西哥发生的一次管道袭击，比美国原油和汽油库存要大得多，因为飓风导致美国海湾地区的炼油厂关闭，9月13日价格创下了创纪录的74.64美元。此外，应注意的是，欧佩克的参考篮子已修订为包括恩戈拉的中甜基拉索原油（30.8API和0.34%硫），自2007年1月1日起生效。2007年和2008年世界经济增长率本月保持在5%不变。不过，预计金融市场动荡的影响将在2007年下半年和2008年对美国和世界经济增长产生影响，尽管目前还不足以衡量这种影响的规模。在信贷市场，信心远未恢复。这在很大程度上取决于货币化，以缓解资本成本上升和信贷紧缩带来的压力。继日本央行（Bank of Japan）和欧洲央行（ECB）的克制之后，所有人的目光都集中在9月18日的美联储会议上，届时普遍预计利率将下调25个基点。此外，在本月早些时候公布8月份美国就业报告后，8月份美国消费者信心下降，市场情绪进一步恶化。日本和欧元区的疲软迹象也很明显。中国经济增长继续有增无减，但8月份通胀率已达到10年来的高点，主要原因是食品价格居高不下，要求进一步收紧货币政策。鉴于目前第三季度的世界石油需求增长，以及第四季度的正常冬季预期，2007年世界石油需求增长预计为130万桶/日或1.5%，与上一个月环比基本持平。8月份世界石油需求遵循典型的夏季季节性趋势。8月份石油需求增长最快的是发展中国家，特别是中国。由于汽油消费放缓，美国8月份的石油需求下降了0.5%或0.1百万桶/日，达到平均2100万桶/日。2008年，世界石油需求预计将增长130万桶/日，与之前的预测一致。由于政府限制能源使用的政策，中国2008年的石油需求增长预测为40万桶/日，比今年的增长下降了0.05万桶/日。预计2008年交通和工业燃料将是主要增长部门。2007年，非欧佩克成员国的供应增长比上一年略有下降，为84万桶/日。这些调整很大程度上归因于第三季度墨西哥和阿塞拜疆供应量的大幅下调。2008，非欧佩克供应增长经历了轻微的向下修正，达到1.04 Mb/d，因为2007年的一些修订已经扩展到2008，更多的数据已经成为项目初创公司和增长的数据。2007年和2008年，天然气和非常规石油的增长保持不变，分别为0.30 mb/d和0.52 mb/d。8月份，欧佩克原油产量平均为3039万桶/日，较上月下降约92200桶/日，伊拉克原油产量大幅下降14.73万桶/日，至平均199万桶/日。随着驾驶季接近尾声，预计过去几周产品市场势头将大幅放缓，对整个石油综合体施加下行压力。然而，由于美国炼油厂持续故障和汽油库存下降，上个月产品市场保持相对强劲，并未侵蚀美国炼油厂的利润率。近期成品油市场的看涨走势，可能在今冬天气寒冷的情况下，为炼厂经济和原油价格提供进一步支撑。8月份，欧佩克的现货供应量增加了100万桶/日，达到平均1270万桶/日，在全球现货供应量中保持了67.5%的稳定。欧佩克的航次几乎保持稳定，只是略有增加。由于吨位供应强劲，2007年超大型油轮的现货运价降至最低水平，原油油轮市场继续低迷。同样，苏伊士型油轮在活动受限和吨位增加的情况下表现出进一步疲软。对于清洁市场，有限的套利影响了市场，苏伊士以东的即期运价保持稳定，而苏伊士以西的运价在所有报告的航线上都有所下降，加勒比海至美国的运价跌幅最大。初步估计，经合组织7月份原油进口量为3030万桶/日，较上月增加23万桶/日，其中产品进口量在下降15.3万桶/日后达到1040万桶/日。原油和产品的年降幅均在5%左右。8月份，美国原油净进口量下降4.4万桶/日，达到1014万桶/日，同比下降3.5%。对美国的净产品进口量猛跌340000桶/日，月跌幅达14%。日本8月原油进口保持稳定，小幅下降1%，而产品进口较上月激增21%。7月份，中国石油进口总量保持稳定，增幅为2%，而出口下降帮助净进口年增长27%。印度7月份石油净进口增长11%，主要受原油进口支撑。美国商业股连续第二个月下跌，至约10.23亿股，但较五年平均水平仍高出540亿股。原油库存下降近1200万桶至33000万桶，与一年前持平，而原油库存下降了1400万桶。馏分油库存继续保持季节性增长，与五年平均水平持平。欧盟16国（15欧元加上挪威）商业库存在前两个月下降3500万桶后略微增加了80万桶，达到114400万桶，比五年平均水平上升了3000万桶。在日本，7月商业石油库存增加950万桶，至195万桶，比5年平均水平增加700万桶，但9月第一周的初步数据显示，自7月底以来，原油库存下降了1400万桶，而馏分油则增加了800万桶。预计2007年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3100万桶/日，比上年增加10万桶/日；2008年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3080万桶/日，比上年减少21.6万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference declined 4.4% or $3.18 in August to settle at $68.71/b. Concern that economic risks and equity marketturbulence might dent energy demand offset the drop in seasonal fuel inventories amid refinery outages and continued drawson crude oil stocks. In September, the OPEC Conference raised the production ceiling to 27.3 mb/d in an attempt to easesupply concerns amid stock draws in a backwardated market. However, a pipeline attack in Mexico, larger-than-expected fallsin US crude oil and gasoline inventories and refinery closures in the US Gulf due to hurricanes pushed prices to a record highof $74.64/b on 13 September. Additionally, it should be noted that the OPEC Reference Basket has been revised to includeAngola’s medium-sweet Girassoal crude (30.8API and 0.34% sulphur), effective from 1 January 2007. World economic growth remains unchanged for 2007 and 2008 at 5% this month. However, it is expected that the fallout fromfinancial market turmoil will impact US and world economic growth in the second half of 2007 and 2008, although it is stilltoo early to gauge the size of the effect. In credit markets, confidence is far from reestablished. Much will depend on monetaryaccommodation to ease the strains produced by the higher cost of capital and tighter credit availability. Following restraint bythe Bank of Japan and ECB, all eyes are now on the Fed meeting on 18 September, when it is generally expected that interestrates will be lowered by 25 basis points. Furthermore, US consumer confidence dipped in August and sentiment furtherdeteriorated after a negative August US employment report earlier this month. Signs of weakness are also noticeable in Japanand the Euro-zone. Growth in China continues unabated, but inflation has reached 10-year highs in August, mainly due to highfood prices, calling for further monetary tightening. Given the current world oil demand growth in the third quarter, along with the anticipation of a normal winter in the fourthquarter, world oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, broadly unchanged from the last MOMR. World oildemand in August followed the typical summer seasonality trend. August oil demand grew the most in the developingcountries, especially China. As a result of slow gasoline consumption, US oil demand in August declined by 0.5% or 0.1 mb/dy-o-y to average 21 mb/d. In 2008, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d, in line with the previous forecast. As aresult of the governmental policy to curb the use of energy, Chinese oil demand growth forecast for 2008 at 0.4 mb/d, a declineof 0.05 mb/d from this year’s growth. Transport and industrial fuel are expected to be the main growth sectors in 2008. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 has been revised down slightly to stand at 0.84 mb/d over the previous year. Theadjustments were due in a large part to significant downward revisions to Mexico and Azerbaijan supply in the third quarter.For 2008, non-OPEC supply growth experienced a minor downward revision to stand at 1.04 mb/d as some of the 2007revisions have been extended into 2008 and more data has become available for project startups and ramp ups. Growth inOPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils has been left unchanged at 0.30 mb/d in 2007 and 0.52 mb/d in 2008. In August,OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.39 mb/d, a decline of around 92,200 b/d from the previous month, as production fromIraq witnessed a significant decline of 147,300 b/d to average 1.99 mb/d. With the approaching end of the driving season, product market momentum was expected to slow sharply over the lastweeks, exerting downward pressure on the entire petroleum complex. However, due to continued refinery glitches andfalling gasoline stocks in the USA, the product market remained relatively strong last month and did not erode USrefinery margins. The recent bullish developments in the product markets could provide further support for refineryeconomics and crude prices in the case of cold weather this winter. OPEC spot fixtures increased 1.0 mb/d in August to average 12.7 mb/d, maintaining a steady 67.5% of global spotfixtures. OPEC sailings remained nearly steady with only a minor increase. The crude oil tanker market remainedbearish with spot freight rates for VLCCs declining to the lowest level so far in 2007 due to strong tonnage supply.Similarly, Suezmax tankers displayed further weakness on the back of limited activities and increased tonnage. For theclean market, limited arbitrage affected the market with East of Suez spot freight rates remaining steady while West ofSuez rates dropped on all reported routes with Caribbean to the USA rates displaying the largest decline. Preliminary estimates put OECD crude oil imports for July at 30.3 mb/d, up 230,000 b/d from the previous month, whileproduct imports reached 10.4 mb/d after a decline of 153,000 b/d. Both crude and products experienced annual declinesof around 5%. US net crude oil imports fell 44,000 b/d to hit 10.14 mb/d in August, representing an annual decline of3.5%. Net product imports to the US plunged 340,000 b/d representing a monthly decline of 14%. Japan’s crude oilimports remained steady in August with a minor decline of 1%, while product imports surged 21% over the previousmonth. China’s total oil imports remained steady in July with a 2% increase, while falling exports helped net imports toincrease 27% on an annual basis. India’s net oil imports rose 11% in July supported mainly by crude oil imports. US commercial stocks continued to drop for the second consecutive month to stand at around 1,023 mb, but remained54 mb over the five-year average. Crude oil stocks fell nearly 12 mb to 330 mb, the same level as a year ago, whilegasoline dropped 14 mb. Distillate stocks continued their seasonal build, remaining in line with the five-year average.EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway) commercial stocks increased a slight 0.8 mb, after falling 35 mb over the previous twomonths, to stand at 1,144 mb, up 30 mb from the five-year average. In Japan, commercial oil stocks rose 9.5 mb in Julyto 195 mb, an increase of 7 mb over the five-year average but preliminary data for the first week of September show thatcrude oil stocks have fallen 14 mb since end-July while distillates rose 8 mb. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.0 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, a decrease of 216,000 b/d.