2007年10月石油市场月报(2007)MOMR October 2007(2007)

今年9月，欧佩克一篮子参考数据总结了墨西哥湾风暴和炼油厂停产的上升趋势，而美联储降低利率支持了市场情绪。对墨西哥输油管道的攻击增加了看涨的势头。尽管欧佩克（OPEC）采取了增产措施，但该组织对季节性燃料的关注仍停留在政治形势发展再次引发对季节性储备前可能出现供应短缺的担忧之际。石油输出国组织（OPEC）当月平均参考价格为74.18美元/桶，较上月上涨5.47美元或近8%。10月份，该篮子的剩余价值在2007年10月12日创下77.46美元/桶的新高。2007年世界经济增长率上调0.1个百分点至5.1%，主要原因是中国（+0.4个百分点）和印度（+0.3个百分点）的增长率上调。2008年，由于美国（0.3个百分点）、欧元区（0.1个百分点）和日本（0.1个百分点）的经济增长率向下修正，经济增长率也下调了0.1个百分点，至4.9%。虽然美国降息有助于稳定金融市场，但经济放缓的风险依然存在。股市收复了所有损失，并创下新高，但信贷市场的正常化仍远未完成。美国和欧元区制造业和服务业放缓的迹象，与亚洲（尤其是中国）持续走强形成鲜明对比。日本经济增长似乎将在2007年第三季度复苏。2007年世界石油需求增长预计为130万桶/日或1.5%，经合组织对不同季度的修正有所抵消。第三季度通常是世界石油需求的淡季，尤其是经合组织。高汽油零售价格和恶劣天气减少了9月份的汽油和柴油消费。9月份，发展中国家的石油需求增长最快，特别是中国、印度和中东。由于北半球预计将迎来正常的冬季，预计第四季度世界石油需求将紧随季节性高消费。预计燃料和取暖用油需求强劲。据预测，第四季度世界石油总需求增长率为180万桶/日，平均为8710万桶/日。2008年，世界石油需求预计增长130万桶/日，平均为8710万桶/日，与上次预测基本持平。由于预计明年夏季驾车季节将放缓，北美第三季度石油需求增幅小幅下调，以反映运输燃料消耗减弱。2007年，非欧佩克成员国的供应增长比上一年略有下降，为80万桶/日。这一调整在很大程度上是由于墨西哥和巴西在第三和第四季度的供应量下调所致。2008年，非欧佩克成员国的供应增长经历了小幅上升，达到110万桶/日，因为目前的一些修订已延长到2008年，更多的数据已可用于项目启动和产能提升。2007年，欧佩克天然气和非常规石油的产量略有增加，至30万桶/日，2008年的数字为50万桶/日。9月份，欧佩克原油平均产量为306万桶/日，较上个月增加约245300桶/日，伊拉克的产量较上个月大幅反弹，从166300桶/日增至平均220万桶/日几年来，产品市场在9月份经历了一次急剧的向下调整，对Entipretroleum综合体产生了不利影响。然而，由于大西洋盆地较重的季节性维护和9月下半月出现的与风暴有关的担忧，今年这一趋势已大大减少，增加了炼油厂受损的风险，并为产品市场提供了支持，减缓了炼油利润率的下降。随着冬季的临近，产品市场的势头可能进一步改善，为炼油厂的经济和原油价格提供支持。然而，主要的不确定因素仍然是天气状况，特别是大西洋盆地的天气状况，以及美国炼油厂的运营水平。9月份，由于亚洲炼油厂的维护，欧佩克的现货供应量减少了2%，平均为1220万桶/日，而非欧佩克的现货供应量增加了13%，平均为690万桶/日。欧佩克的航运量在9月份几乎保持稳定，较上月小幅增加了80000桶/日左右，9月份，由于供应充足，加之9月上半月油轮需求疲软，原油运输的现货运价从稳定到下降。9月下旬，受欧洲石油公司的决定以及炼油厂维修后需求的影响，活动水平有所上升，但还没有达到现货运价上升的水平。超大型油轮板块基本稳定，从中东向东和向西分别为WS60和WS46。受原油和产品进口的推动，美国9月份石油进口总额下降逾25万桶/日。受炼油厂检修影响，日本9月份原油进口量下降约12.7万桶/日，至平均410万桶/日。初步数据显示，8月份，中国原油进口量因炼油厂检修而下降5%，至330万桶/日，而产品进口量下降主要是由于国际油价高企导致燃油进口量下降。印度8月份的原油和产品净进口总量平均为200万桶/日，比上个月减少了10万桶/日，降幅为4%，这是由于国内产品销售下降所致。美国商业股9月份小幅下跌，但仍比5年平均水平高出约1500万股，其中crudeinventories位于5年期区间的上端。馏分油库存继续保持季节性趋势，比5年平均水平高出530万桶至400万桶，而汽油库存仍低于5年平均水平的较低水平。在欧盟16国（15欧元加上斯诺威），石油库存总量下降了1200万至1133万桶，但仍高于5年平均水平，尤其是原油和中间馏分油。日本8月份的商业石油库存增加了400万桶，但9月份的初步数据显示，库存增加了1300万桶左右，其中四分之三是原油。预计2007年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3110万桶/日，比上年增加0.10万桶/日；2008年欧佩克原油需求量平均为3080万桶/日，下降0.20万桶/日。

In September, the OPEC Reference Basket resumed the upward trend on storms in the Gulf of Mexico and refinery outages,while the lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve supported market sentiment. An attack on Mexico’s pipeline addedto the bullish momentum. Despite OPEC’s move to increase production, concern over seasonal fuels remained at a time whengeopolitical developments revived fear of a potential supply shortfall ahead of seasonal stockpiling. The OPEC ReferenceBasket averaged the month at $74.18/b for a gain of $5.47 or nearly 8% over the previous month. The Basket remainedvolatile in October reaching a new record-high of $77.46/b on 12 October 2007. World economic growth in 2007 has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 5.1% mainly on upward revisions togrowth in China (+0.4 pp) and India (+0.3 pp). For 2008, growth was revised down by a similar 0.1 pp to 4.9% due todownward revisions to growth in the US (-0.3 pp), the Euro-zone (-0.1 pp) and Japan (-0.1 pp). While the US interest rate cutserved to calm financial markets, the risk of an economic slowdown remains. Stock markets recovered all the losses andmoved to new record highs but credit markets’ normalisation is still far from complete. Signs of a slowdown in the USand Euro-zone in both the manufacturing and services sectors contrast with continued strength in Asia, especially inChina. Japanese growth seems set to recover in the third quarter of 2007. World oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, with offsetting revisions to different quarters in OECD.The third quarter is normally a low season for world oil demand, especially in the OECD. High gasoline retail prices and therainy weather reduced gasoline and diesel consumption in September. September oil demand grew the most in the DevelopingCountries, especially in China, India and the Middle East. World oil demand in the fourth quarter is estimated to followtypically high seasonal consumption due to the expected normal winter in the Northern hemisphere. Fuel and heating oildemand is forecast to be strong. Total world oil demand growth in the fourth quarter is forecast at 1.8 mb/d to average87.1 mb/d. In 2008, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d to average 87.1 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the lastestimate. Due to the expected slower summer driving season next year, North America’s third-quarter oil demand growth wasrevised down slightly to reflect weaker transport fuel consumption. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 has been revised down slightly to stand at 0.8 mb/d over the previous year. Theadjustments were due to a large part to downward revisions to Mexico and Brazil supply in the third and fourth quarters. For2008, non-OPEC supply growth experienced a minor upward revision to stand at 1.1 mb/d as some of the current yearrevisions have been extended into 2008 and more data have become available for projects startups and ramp-ups. Growth inOPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils has been revised up slightly to 0.3 mb/d in 2007 while the 2008 figure was left at0.5 mb/d. In September, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.6 mb/d, a rise of around 245,300 b/d from the previousmonth, as production from Iraq saw a significant rebound of 166,300 b/d to average 2.2 mb/d. Over the last few years, product markets experienced a sharp downward correction in September, adversely affecting the entirepetroleum complex. However, this trend has been significantly diminished this year due to heavier seasonal maintenance in theAtlantic Basin and storm-related concerns which picked up in the second half of September, raising the risk of damage torefineries and provided support for product markets and slowed the decline in refining margins. With the approaching winterseason, the momentum of the product markets may improve further, providing support for refinery economics and crudeprices. However, the major wild cards continue to be weather conditions, particularly in Atlantic Basin, and the refineryoperation level in the US. OPEC spot fixtures decreased by 2% in September to average 12.2 mb/d on limited activities due especially to Asian refinerymaintenance, while non-OPEC spot fixtures increased by 13% to average 6.9 mb/d. OPEC sailings were nearly steady inSeptember, with a minor increase of around 80,000 b/d from the previous month, to stand at 23.2 mb/d. Spot freight rates forshipping crude oil were between steady to moving downward in September due to plentiful supply and sluggish tankerdemand in the first half of September. The level of activities increased in the second half of September, on the back of theOPEC decision as well as post-maintenance refinery demand, yet not to the level to mark an increase in spot freight rates. TheVLCC sector was mostly steady with rates of WS60 and WS46 from the Middle East to the east and west, respectively. US total oil imports declined by more than 0.25 mb/d in September, driven by crude oil and product imports. Japan’scrude oil imports in September fell by around 127,000 b/d to average 4.1 mb/d on the back of refinery maintenance.Preliminary data shows China’s crude oil imports in August declined 5% to 3.3 mb/d due to refinery turnarounds, whileproduct imports fell mainly on the decline of fuel oil imports owing to high international prices. India’s total net crudeoil and product imports in August averaged 2.0 mb/d, a decrease of 0.1 mb/d or 4% compared to a month earlier, withthe decrease coming on the back of lower domestic product sales. US commercial stocks fell slightly in September but remained around 15 mb above the five year average with crudeinventories standing at the upper end of the five-year range. Distillate stocks continued their seasonal trend, rising 5.3 mb to4 mb above the five-year average, while gasoline remained below the lower end of the five-year range. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plusNorway), total oil stocks fell 12 mb to 1,133 mb but remained comfortable above the five-year average, particularly crude oiland middle distillates. Japan’s commercial oil stocks rose 4 mb in August but preliminary data for September show stocksfalling by around 13 mb with crude oil accounting for three-quarters of the draw. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.2 mb/d.