2017年9月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR September 2017(2017)

原油价格变动8月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子连续第二个月上涨至平均49.60美元/桶，涨幅为2.67美元/桶或6%。截至目前，该篮子原油价格上涨30.9%，至49.73美元/桶。原油期货价格也上涨，其中冰布伦特原油价格上涨5.5%，至51.87美元/桶，纽约商品交易所WTI原油价格上涨3.0%，至48.06美元/桶。截至目前，原油期货价格上涨超过20%。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）表示，在8月29日的一周内，基金经理将WTI期货和期权净多头头寸减少105671份，至147303份。同一周，基金经理们将布伦特原油期货和期权合约净值小幅减少了1296手，至416551手。世界经济世界经济增长率已从3.4%上调至2017年的3.5%，而2018年的增长预测保持在3.4%不变。经合组织今年的增长情况好于预期，特别是欧元区和美国，目前预计2017年和2018年分别增长2.2%和2.0%。印度预计在2017年和2018年分别增长6.9%和7.5%。巴西和俄罗斯在2017年的经济复苏率分别为0.5%和1.5%，2018年分别增长1.5%和1.4%。预计中国2017年和2018年将分别增长6.7%和6.3%。世界石油需求量在上调约50tb/d后，预计2017年世界石油需求量将增长142万桶/d。这一调整主要反映了经合组织（OECD）地区17年第2季度的好于预期的数据，特别是美国和欧洲以及中国。2018年，世界石油需求预计将增长135万桶/日，比上一份报告增加70吨/日。这反映了经合组织（oecd）对欧洲和中国更高的增长预期。由于哈萨克斯坦和美国供应量的调整，预计2017年欧佩克石油供应量将增长78万桶/日，与上月持平。2018年，非欧佩克石油供应量预计将增长100万桶/日，此前俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的石油供应量将下调，总计为10万桶/日。2018年，欧佩克天然气和非常规液体产量平均为649万桶/日，增长18万桶/日，与本年的增长基本一致。根据第二来源的数据，8月份，欧佩克原油产量下降了79tb/d，平均为3276mb/d。8月份大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务炼油利润率有所提高。在美国，由于预计飓风哈维过后产品供应将出现短缺，加之已经坚挺的国内需求，支撑了产品裂缝蔓延，利润率上升。在欧洲和亚洲，产品市场受到美国供应商的支持，这鼓励了更高的套利量，以及健康的季节性需求，这有助于提高炼油厂利润率。油轮市场8月份的平均现货运价跟随夏季月份的典型趋势，大多数报告航线的运价都有所下降。受船舶高可用性的影响，脏点运费下降，据报道，新交付的船舶增加了船队，给本已供过于求的吨位市场带来压力。受苏伊士以西登记的较低运费影响，清洁油轮运费平均下降，尽管受飓风哈维影响，美国暂时加息，但经济合作与发展组织（OECD）7月份的商业石油库存仍下跌至30.02亿股。在这个水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出195百万桶。原油和产品库存显示，盈余分别约为12300万桶和7200万桶，高于季节性正常水平。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织7月份商业库存为62.9天，比最近五年平均水平高出约2.7天。根据当前全球石油供需平衡，2017年欧佩克原油预计为3270万桶/日，比2016年高出约50万桶/日。同样，欧佩克2018年的原油估计为3280万桶/日，比2017年高出约120万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose for the second-consecutive month in August to average $49.60/b,representing a gain of $2.67/b or 6%. Year-to-date, the Basket was 30.9% higher at $49.73/b. Crude futuresprices also saw gains with ICE Brent increasing 5.5% to $51.87/b and NYMEX WTI up 3.0% at $48.06/b.Year-to-date, crude futures prices were more than 20% higher. During the week of 29 August moneymanagers cut WTI futures and options net long positions by 105,671 contracts to 147,303 lots, the USCommodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Money managers slightly reduced Brent futures andoptions net length contracts by 1,296 to 416,551 lots during the same week.World EconomyWorld economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.5% from 3.4%, while the growth forecast for 2018remains unchanged at 3.4%. OECD growth has performed better-than-anticipated in the current year –particularly the Euro-zone and to some extent in the US – and is now forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2017 and2.0% in 2018. India is expected to grow by 6.9% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018. Brazil and Russia are bothforecast to expand their recovery to 0.5% and 1.5% in 2017, respectively, followed by growth of 1.5% and1.4% in 2018. China is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.42 mb/d after an upward revision of around 50 tb/d.The adjustment mainly reflects better-than-expected data from OECD region for the 2Q17, particularlyOECD Americans and Europe, as well as China. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by1.35 mb/d, an increase of 70 tb/d from the previous report. This reflects higher growth expectations forOECD Europe and China.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.78 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from the last month due tooffsetting revisions in Kazakhstan and US supply. In 2018, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by1.0 mb/d, following a downward revision to Russia and Kazakhstan, totalling 0.1 mb/d. OPEC NGLs andnon-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.49 mb/d in 2018, representing an increase of0.18 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year. In August, OPEC crude oil production decreasedby 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.76 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsRefinery margins in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in August. In the US, margins rose amid expectations fora product supply shortfall in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, coupled with already firm domestic demand,which supported product crack spreads. In Europe and Asia, product markets were supported by supplyoutages in the US, which encouraged higher arbitrage volumes, as well as healthy seasonal demand, whichhelped lift refinery margins.Tanker MarketAverage spot freight rates in August followed the typical trend seen in the summer months, with a weakeningon most reported routes. Dirty spot freight rates fell, influenced by high vessel availability, as new deliverieswere reportedly added to the fleet, putting pressure on an already oversupplied tonnage market.Clean tanker rates declined on average, influenced by lower rates registered on the West of Suez, despite atemporary hike in rates in the US due to Hurricane Harvey.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in July to stand at 3,002 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stockswere 195 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicate surpluses of around123 mb and 72 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.9 days in July, some 2.7 days higher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandBased on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d,around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, about0.2 mb/d higher than in 2017.