2017年11月石油市场月报(2017)MOMR November 2017(2017)

原油价格变动10月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子平均为55.50美元/桶，比上个月上涨2.06美元，创下两年半以来的最高值，今年迄今平均为50.68美元/桶。原油期货价格也达到2015年年中以来的最高水平。ICE布伦特原油价格上涨2.13美元，至57.65美元/桶，而LENYMEX WTI原油价格上涨1.72美元，达到51.59美元/桶，布伦特WTI原油价格保持在6美元/桶以上。全球需求数据不断上升，预计主要产油国将扩大adeal原油产量，以调整产量，并使石油市场达到平衡，支撑了油价。对冲基金分别以29456份和21592份合约的价格，向inNYMEX WTI和ICE布伦特期货和期权公司募集了净多头头寸，达到281244份和530237份。布伦特原油和迪拜原油仍处于滞销状态，而西德州原油期货价格则有所回落。亚洲和欧洲的糖醋差价有所收窄，但美国海湾沿岸的糖醋差价有所扩大。世界经济全球经济增长势头继续保持，2017年的预测从上月报告的3.6%上调至3.7%。同样，2018年的预测也被调高至3.7%，而上个月为3.5%。尤其是经合组织（OECD）2017年的经济增长比迄今预期的要好。经合组织在2017年和2018年分别上升了2.3%和2.2%。美国、欧元区和日本的经济发展势头良好，并可能进行税收改革，中国和印度的强劲增长以及俄罗斯和巴西的形势好转，在短期内支持了增长趋势。世界石油需求量预计在2017年第3季度向上调整74 tb/d后，世界石油需求量增长将增加153万桶/日，以期中国在2017年第3季度的表现好于预期。2018年，世界石油需求预计将下降151万桶/日，比上一次评估高出约130万亿桶/日。目前，世界石油供应国欧佩克石油供应量预计在2017年同比增长65万桶/日，比上个月的报告下降了02万桶/日。2018年，非欧佩克石油供应的增长也被修正为下降0.07百万桶/日，达到0.87百万桶/日。欧佩克天然气和非常规液体预计在2017年增长0.17百万桶/日后，2018年将增长0.18百万桶/日。根据第二来源的数据，2017年10月，欧佩克原油产量下降了151 tb/d，平均为3259 mb/d。由于美国驾驶季结束后汽油需求季节性下降，大西洋盆地的产品市场和炼油业务产品市场在10月有所减弱。尽管如此，在稳定的产品需求和低库存水平的背景下，美国炼油利润率仍显示出一定的改善。在欧洲，强劲的中间需求抵消了顶部和底部的疲软。亚洲成品油市场也小幅走弱，但在炼油厂开始维修的支持下仍保持在健康水平。10月份，脏油油轮市场的油轮市场情绪普遍增强，因为不同类别的运价显示大多数主要贸易航线都有所改善。受季节性吨位需求改善以及港口和天气延误等因素影响，脏油轮现货平均运价较上月上涨16%。尽管10月份航运市场取得了健康的增长，但仍保持InsuralPlus，从而限制了现货运价的进一步上涨。与此同时，清洁油轮运价经历了相对下降，尽管仍高于去年同期的水平。9月份，经合组织商业石油库存总体下降，达到298500万桶。在这一水平上，经合组织的商业石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出1.54亿桶。原油和成品油库存分别比季节性正常水平高出约129MB和25MB。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织9月份商业库存为62.3天，比最近五年的平均水平高出约1.9天。根据当前全球石油供需平衡，2017年欧佩克原油预计为3300万桶/日，比2016年高出约7100万桶/日。据估计，2018年欧佩克原油日产量为3340万桶，比2017年增加约46万桶。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month andreaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crudefutures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, whileNYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices havebeen supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend adeal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions inNYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased.Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.World EconomyThe global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well tostand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 wasbetter than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018.Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and tosome extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil aresupporting the growth trend in the short-term.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d toaccount for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseenreaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revisionof 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised downby 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil productiondecreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demandfollowing the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvementy-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barreldemand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, butremained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.Tanker MarketSentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classesshowed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16%compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port andweather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains insurplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced arelative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus ofaround 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-yearaverage.Balance of Supply and DemandBased on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d,around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/dhigher than in 2017.