2004年6月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR June 2004(2004)

美国经济复苏具有强劲的非通胀性扩张的特点，这种扩张是由国内需求的高水平和不断增长导致的。5月份的通胀数据显示，美国6月份可能的利率上升幅度仅为0.25%，这不应影响消费者或投资支出。对经济稳定的主要威胁仍然是贸易不平衡。今年4月，美国贸易逆差扩大至483亿美元的历史最高纪录，美元的高位表明，这一问题在短期内不会得到解决。

欧元区正在复苏，但尚未在整个地区蔓延。国内需求不断增长，西班牙也出现了一些改善迹象，但德国和荷兰消费者仍然非常谨慎。在德国，复苏集中在那些受益于强劲海外需求的工业部门。就业水平下降继续削弱消费者信心。相比之下，日本国内需求继续强劲增长。一季度的经济增长率按年率调整为6%，有迹象表明，银行贷款正在增加，为股票建设和投资提供资金。

经合组织（OECD）地区2004年的预测增长了0.1%，GDP预计增长3.5%。美国的预测不变，为4.7%，而日本的预测为3.8%，增长了0.9%。欧元区预测值保持在1.8%不变，中国和俄罗斯的预测值分别保持在8.8%和7%不变。对非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲（不包括日本）和发展中国家的预测也没有改变。2004年世界经济预计增长4.8%，比上个月的预测增长0.1%。

自1987年通过以来，欧佩克的参考篮子从未接近今年5月达到的水平。再次接近4美元/桶，或超过12%，5月份篮子平均价格达到36.27美元/桶的历史最高点，此外，5月17日的日均价格甚至接近难以想象的38美元/桶大关。在6月的第一周，篮子价格下跌了0.21美元/桶，至36.49美元/桶，而在本月的第二周，篮子价格下跌了1.94美元/桶，至34.55美元/桶，然后在6月15日跌至33.72美元/桶，主要是由于欧佩克在6月3日决定提高产量以平息供应担忧。

美国驾车季节即将到来的强劲需求，帮助汽油平均价格在5月份超越了国内和世界石油市场上的markercrude同行。这导致三大炼油中心的炼油利润率创下新高。

欧佩克地区现货租船业务恢复上月的亏损，5月份增长约26%或423万桶/日，至1610万桶/日，比一年前的水平高出约200万桶/日。欧佩克现货供应量的增加，其中中东租船约占一半，主要是由于欧佩克石油产量比上个月增加，因为大多数欧佩克成员国为了降低油价而超过了配额。5月份，所有主要航线和所有行业的原油运价都明显受益于高现货运价，特别是中东向长途航线的超大型油轮和地中海内的阿芙拉型油轮以及从那里到西北欧的超大型油轮。由于运价恢复了前一个月的一部分，成品油轮市场度过了一个非常好的月份损失惨重。

北美消费数据的上调导致了与2003年世界石油需求估计值相似的0.08百万桶/日的调整。第一季度和第二季度的需求远强于预期，导致预测世界2004年需求进一步向上修正为0.17百万桶/日，目前为80.58百万桶/日。2004年的增长预测也提高到1.90百万桶/日，相当于2.41%，自1997年以来的最高需求增长。中国仍然是预测2004年石油需求增长的最大贡献者，预计消费增长72万桶/日，占世界增长的近38%。

根据第二来源，欧佩克5月份的原油产量估计为2828万桶/日，比4月份的数字高出24万桶/日。2003年非欧佩克石油供应量估计为4866万桶/日，比2002年的4776万桶/日高出90万桶/日。预计2004年非欧佩克石油供应量将达到5000万桶/日，比2003年的估计增加134万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口量估计分别为556MB/d和646MB/d，预计2004年将增至737MB/d。

2004年5月，美国商业石油库存继续上个月的趋势，季节性增长1650万桶，这使得6月上半月的同比顺差扩大到5.1%左右。欧洲石油库存总量显示为320万桶，其中产品库存的大幅增长抵消了原油的消耗。日本石油库存在2004年4月下降了280万桶，主要是由于原油库存的大幅下降，导致日本石油库存同比短缺6.6%。

The US recovery has the character of a strong, non-inflationary expansion led by a high and growing level ofdomestic demand. The May inflation data suggest that the probable rise in US interest rates in June will only be0.25%, which should not derail consumer or investment spending. The major threat to economic stability remains thetrade imbalance. The deficit on the US trade account widened to an all-time record of $48.3 billion in April and thehigh level of the dollar indicates that this problem will not be resolved in the near term.

  The Euro-zone recovery is under way but has not spread throughout the region. Domestic demand is growing inFrance and Spain with some signs of improvement in Italy but German and Dutch consumers remain very cautious.In Germany the recovery is concentrated in those industrial sectors which benefit from strong overseas demand.Falling levels of employment continue to weaken consumer confidence. In contrast domestic demand in Japancontinues to grow strongly. Economic growth for the first quarter was revised up to 6% at an annual rate and thereare signs that bank lending is rising to finance stockbuilding and investment. 

The 2004 forecast for the OECD region has been raised by 0.1% and GDP is expected to grow 3.5%. The forecast forthe USA is unchanged at 4.7%, while the Japanese forecast is now 3.8%, an increase of 0.9%. The Euro-zoneforecast remains unchanged at 1.8%, along with the forecasts for China and Russia, which are holding steady at 8.8%and 7% respectively. The forecasts for Africa, Latin America, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countries as awhole are also unchanged. The world economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2004, a 0.1% increase over lastmonth’s forecast. 

Since its adoption in 1987, the OPEC Reference Basket has never come close to the level reached this May. With again of almost $4/b, or more than 12%, the Basket average for May reached an all time high of $36.27/b. Moreover,the daily average for 17 May even approached the unimaginable $38/b mark. In the first week of June, the Basketdecreased by $0.21/b to $36.49/b, while in the second week of the month it lost $1.94/b to register $34.55/b beforedropping to $33.72/b on 15 June, mainly due to OPEC’s decision on 3 June to raise output to calm supply concerns. 

The impending robust demand of the US driving season helped average gasoline prices to outperform their markercrude counterparts in May, both domestically and in the world oil markets. This led refining margins to new recordhighs in the three main refining centres.

  OPEC area spot-chartering regained last month’s losses, increasing by about 26% or 4.23 mb/d to 16.10 mb/d in May,which was about 2 mb/d higher than the level observed a year ago. The rise in OPEC spot fixtures of which Middle Eastchartering contributed about half, was mainly due to the increase of OPEC oil production over the previous month asmost OPEC Member Countries exceeded their quotas in an attempt to cool oil prices. Crude oil freight rates across allmain routes and for all sectors benefited noticeably from high spot fixtures during May, especially VLCCs on theMiddle East eastbound long-haul route and AFRAMAX within the Mediterranean and from there to NW Europe.The product tanker market enjoyed a very good month as rates regained part of the previous month’s heavy losses.

An upward revision in the North American consumption data has resulted in a similar adjustment of 0.08 mb/d to the2003 world oil demand estimate. Much stronger than expected demand in the first quarter and part of the second has ledto a further upward revision of 0.17 mb/d to the forecast world 2004 demand, which now stands at 80.58 mb/d. The2004 growth forecast has also been raised to 1.90 mb/d equivalent to 2.41%, the highest demand increment since 1997.China remains the top contributor to forecast 2004 oil demand growth with an expected 0.72 mb/d rise in consumption,which represents close to 38% of world growth. 

OPEC crude oil production in May, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.28 mb/d, 0.24 mb/d above therevised April figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is estimated at 48.66 mb/d, which is 0.90 mb/d above the47.76 mb/d estimated 2002 figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 50.00 mb/d, an increase of1.34 mb/d over the 2003 estimate. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.46 mb/drespectively, and are expected to rise to 7.37 mb/d in 2004. 

In May 2004, US commercial oil stocks continued the previous month’s trend, rising a seasonal 16.5 mb, whichwidened the y-o-y surplus to around 5.1% in the first half of June. Total oil stocks in Europe displayed a build of3.2 mb, where a large increase in product stocks offset the draw on crude oil. The y-o-y surplus is now around 0.7%.Japanese oil stocks in April 2004 fell 2.8 mb, mainly on a large decrease in crude oil stocks, for a y-o-y shortage of6.6%.