2013年10月石油市场月报(2013)MOMR October 2013(2013)

石油输出国组织（OPEC）9月份参考价格篮子连续第四个月上涨，上涨1.21美元/桶，至平均108.73美元/桶。本月初，原油期货价格因供应中断和地缘政治紧张局势加剧而出现一定上升势头。然而，随着地缘政治担忧的加剧，大西洋两岸的油价开始稳步下跌，约为8美元/桶。中东和北非地区和苏丹的供应前景有所改善，主要供应商和国际石油机构保证市场供应充足，也缓解了原油上涨的压力石油价格。随着原油期货市场反弹的结束，基金经理们在9月底大幅减少了创纪录的净持仓量。纽约商品交易所（Nymex）9月份前一个月的WTI合约下跌30美元至106.24美元，布伦特原油价格小幅上涨至平均111.25美元/桶。2013年和2014年世界经济增长率分别保持在2.9%和3.5%不变，尽管美国预算僵局的持续发展需要密切监控。美国2013年的增长率已从1.7%下调至1.6%，而2014年的预测仍为2.5%。欧元区本年度经济增长预期已从-0.5%上调至-0.3%，从2014年的0.6%上调至0.7%。日本对2013年的预测从1.7%上调至1.9%，2014年的增长从1.4%上调至1.5%。印度受到资本流动的影响，2013年的预测下调至5.0%，2014年的预测下调至5.8%。中国2013年和2014年的增长预期分别保持在7.6%和7.7%不变。据估计，2013年世界石油需求平均为8970万桶/日，较上年增长80万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。经合组织亚太地区、其他亚洲和金融服务联盟的下调几乎完全抵消了经合组织美洲和欧洲的上调。2014年，增长预计将增加至约100万桶/日，达到9080万桶/日。非经合组织国家预计将以120万桶/日的速度引领石油需求增长，而经合组织的消费预计将继续下降，但下降速度较低，为20万桶/日。非欧佩克国家的石油供应估计为5410万桶/日，此前上调了10万桶/日，增长110万桶/日。向上调整的主要原因是美国、巴西、哈萨克斯坦、南苏丹和苏丹的供应高于预期。2014年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增加120万桶/日，美国、加拿大、巴西、南苏丹和苏丹的预期增长为支撑。欧佩克天然气和非常规石油预计将在2013年和2014年分别增加0.2mb/d in和0.1Mb/d。据二级消息人士透露，9月份，欧佩克原油总产量平均为305mb/d，较上月下降390tb/d，9月份产品市场情绪表现喜忧参半。中间馏分油在市场人气趋紧的背景下依然健康。相比之下，随着大西洋盆地驾驶季节的逐渐减少，以及亚洲国家季节性需求的下降，汽油价格暴跌。加上燃料油市场人气减弱，导致炼油厂利润率继续保持全球下降趋势。尽管VLCCs仅较上月小幅增长，但9月份看跌情绪继续主导原油油轮市场。运价在很大程度上仍处于压力之下，这主要是由于高吨位的可用性和有限的需求。由于缺乏吨位需求，苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的运价在9月份有所下降。清洁油轮费率参差不齐。今年9月，欧佩克的现货供应量平均上升至1321万桶/日，主要是由于中东地区的原油供应量增加。8月份，经合组织的商业石油库存总量下降了1000万桶，显示出约6800万桶的赤字，低于原油和产品的五年平均水平。就远期覆盖率而言，OEC商业库存为58.6天，与五年平均水平相比，盈余为0.1天。9月份的初步数据显示，美国商业石油库存增长450万桶，扭转了过去两个月的下降趋势，与五年平均水平相比，盈余为33万桶。这一增长分为原油和产品两部分，分别显示出2370万桶和920万桶的盈余。2013年，欧佩克原油的平均需求量估计为2990万桶/日，与上一份报告持平，比2012年下降了50万桶/日。2014年，欧佩克原油需求预计为2960万桶/日，与上一份报告一致，与今年相比下降了30万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, increasing by$1.21/b to average $108.73/b. Crude oil futures prices began the month with some upwardmomentum fuelled by supply outages and a spike in geopolitical tensions. However, with the easingof geopolitical concerns, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic began to drop steadily, sheddingsome $8/b. An improvement in supply prospects from the MENA region and Sudan, along withassurances by major suppliers and international oil agencies that the market was well-supplied, alsodampened the upward pressure on crude oil prices. As the rally in the crude futures market came toend, money managers sharply reduced their record-high net length positions at the end ofSeptember. On the Nymex, the front-month WTI contract fell 30 to $106.24 in September, whileICE Brent improved slightly to average $111.25/b.World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains unchanged at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively,although ongoing developments regarding the budget stand-off in the US requires close monitoring.US growth for 2013 has been revised down to 1.6% from 1.7%, while the 2014 forecast remains at2.5%. The Euro-zone growth forecast for the current year has been revised up to -0.3% from -0.5%and to 0.7% from 0.6% for 2014. Japan’s forecast for 2013 has been revised up to 1.9% from 1.7%and growth for 2014 has been revised to 1.5% from 1.4%. India has been impacted by capitaloutflows and its 2013 forecast has been lowered to 5.0% and its 2014 forecast reduced to 5.8%.China’s growth expectations remain unchanged at 7.6% and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively. World oil demand is estimated to average 89.7 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 0.8 mb/dcompared to the previous year, and unchanged from the previous report. Upward revisions in OECDAmericas and Europe were almost entirely offset by downward adjustments in OECD Asia Pacific,Other Asia and the FSU. For 2014, growth is expected to increase to around 1.0 mb/d to reach to90.8 mb/d. Non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth with 1.2 mb/d, whileOECD consumption is seen continuing to decline but at a lower rate of 0.2 mb/d.Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated at 54.1 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d,representing growth of 1.1 mb/d. The upward adjustment was due mainly to higher-than-expectedsupply from the US, Brazil, Kazakhstan and South Sudan & Sudan. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply isexpected to increase by 1.2 mb/d, supported by anticipated growth in the US, Canada, Brazil, andSouth Sudan & Sudan. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/din 2013 and 0.1 mb/d in 2014. In September, total OPEC crude production averaged 30.05 mb/d,according to secondary sources, representing a drop of 390 tb/d from the previous month.Product market sentiment showed a mixed performance in September. Middle distillates remainedrelatively healthy on the back of tightening sentiment. In contrast, gasoline plummeted with thewinding down of the driving season in the Atlantic basin, as well as declining seasonal demand inAsia countries. Combined with a weakening fuel oil market sentiment, this caused refinery marginsto continue their worldwide downward trend.Bearish sentiment continued to dominate the crude oil tanker market in September, despite VLCCsregistering only a slight rate increase from last month. Freight rates remain largely under pressuredue mainly to high tonnage availability and limited demand. Suezmax and Aframax freight rateswere lower in September due to a lack of tonnage demand. Clean tanker rates were mixed. InSeptember, OPEC spot fixtures rose to average 13.21 mb/d, mainly due to increased Middle Eastto-Eastfixtures.Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 10.0 mb in August to show a deficit of around 68 mb withthe five-year average, divided between crude and products. In terms of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 58.6 days, a surplus of 0.1 days compared to the five-year average.Preliminary data for September shows US commercial oil stocks rose 4.5 mb – reversing the drop oflast two months – to indicate a surplus of 33.0 mb with the five-year average. This gain was dividedbetween crude and products, which indicated surpluses of 23.7 mb and 9.2 mb, respectively.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport, representing a decline of 0.5 mb/d from 2012. In 2014, demand for OPEC crude is expectedat 29.6 mb/d, also in line with the previous report, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared tothe current year.