2004年11月石油市场月报(2004)MOMR November 2004(2004)

世界经济的薄弱环节是欧元区。第三季度国内生产总值年增长率仅为1.2%，这表明自第一季度以来增长持续放缓。日本第三季度的结果也低于预期，尽管大部分疲弱是由于资本支出波动造成的。美国公布的第三季度数据证实，由于出口和零售销售强劲，美国经济继续稳步增长。中国有一些需求放缓的迹象，但总体增速放缓的格局并不明显。中国10月份的零售额增长了14%，工业生产增长了15%，这一增速仅略低于今年早些时候的水平。10月底，中国9年来首次加息，表明“软着陆”尚未得到保证，通胀风险依然存在。2005年的前景受到油价进一步上涨的影响。9月，预测人士一致预计，2005年，按水处理指数计算，油价将稳定在平均约37-38美元/桶的水平。由于10月份市场的强劲，分析师们修改了这一预测，因此，目前大多数预测的基础是42-43美元/桶的平均价格。普遍认为油价上涨10%，这使世界GDP增长预期降低了0.1%至4%。欧元区2005年的经济增长预期已下调至1.8%，因为最近欧元升值将减少欧洲出口。对日本的预测下调了0.4%至1.6%，此前两个季度日本经济增长令人失望，其他亚洲经济体也出现疲弱迹象。预计美国经济将经历0.1%的小幅下降，仍将受益于2004年强劲的经济势头。因此，2005年美国经济预计将增长3.1%，与20年平均水平持平。油价上涨将倾向于降低中国经济增长，但2005年的主要因素将是更为严格的货币政策带来的不确定影响。2005年，中国的经济增长率预测保持在7.6%不变。10月份，欧佩克的一篮子参考货币继续朝着历史高点努力，随后在本月下旬稳步回落。由于美国墨西哥湾沿岸生产中断持续，以及尼日利亚随后撤走的阿斯特里克（astrike）威胁，市场对冬季燃料供应紧张的担忧将一揽子价格推高至创纪录水平。10月21日，日篮子价格最高达到46.61美元/桶，而月平均价格较上月上涨约5美元，创下45.37美元/桶的纪录高点。截至10月的年平均价格也创下35.76美元/桶的新高，较2003年同期上涨7.66美元。到11月初，石油输出国组织（OPEC）产量的增加以及由此产生的库存增加有助于抑制油价，导致截至目前的月平均价格大幅下跌4.83美元/桶，而今年迄今已升至35.95美元/桶。由于冬季前的维护计划，炼油厂的运营量下降，特别是在美国和欧洲，已收紧全球蒸馏油市场，并在10月份提振了蒸馏油与基准原油的价格差距。较低的价格也导致美国市场的库存提前减少。然而，随着炼油厂的关闭和最大馏出模式的切换以及整个相对温和的天气的结束，对冬季加热油短缺的担忧有所缓解，导致蒸馏产品价格近期下降。但仍有人担心炼油厂能否维持接近产能的运营，以确保充足的热油供应，而且看来蒸馏产品将在未来几个月推动市场。欧佩克的现货供应量在10月份强劲增长了15%或200万桶/日，五年来首次达到近1360万桶/日。欧佩克在全球现货租赁中的份额达到67.5%。由于冬季原油需求激增和油轮供应不足，原油运价在10月份大幅上涨后，平均每月达到30年来的最高水平。阿芙拉型油轮的运价出现了惊人的增长，而主题航线内的运价飙升了192点，达到了WS392。成品油船市场也仍然非常紧张，特别是在中东向东航线上，由于日本进口激增，运价上涨了154个点，达到每月平均WS368。由于中国下半年消费放缓，加上经济活动步伐放缓，预计FSU的表观需求将下降，因此本年度世界石油需求预测略有下调。2005年世界石油需求增长预期再次被调整，以适应全球经济增长率的下降，中国仍然是明年的外卡。按第二来源计算，欧佩克10月份原油产量估计为3023万桶/日，比9月份修正后的数字增加0.08万桶/日。2004年非欧佩克石油供应量估计为4991万桶/日，比2003年的4859万桶/日高出132万桶/日。2005年非欧佩克石油供应预计将达到5112万桶/日，比2004年的预测增加121万桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的净出口量估计分别为558万桶/日和649万桶/日，预计2004年和2005年将分别增至732万桶/日和776万桶/日。2004年10月1日至29日期间，美国商业石油库存出现了130万桶或0.05万桶/日的反季节增长。截至11月12日的每周数据进一步证实了这一趋势，尤其是原油。这使得总容量达到9637万桶，比去年的水平低了73万桶或不到1%。在16欧元区（EU plusNorway），石油库存总量显示出轻微的季节性下降，为17万桶/日，达到1090.6万桶，比去年的记录高出约2%。截至2004年9月底，日本商业石油库存总量为18340万桶，比8月份高出约8%，即47万桶/日，但仍比去年同期低10%。

The weak link in the world economy is the Euro-zone. Third quarter GDP growth was only 1.2% at an annual rate,which indicates a continued slowdown in growth since the first quarter. The outcome for Japan in the third quarter wasalso below expectations although most of the weakness was due to fluctuations in volatile capital expenditure. Incontrast, the US data for the third quarter confirmed that the economic expansion continued at a solid pace thanks tostrong exports and retail sales. There are some signs of moderating demand in China but no overall pattern of slowergrowth is evident. Chinese retail sales in October grew by 14% and industrial production by 15%, rates that were onlyslightly lower than those achieved earlier in the year. At the end of October, China raised interest rates for the firsttime in nine years, indicating that a ‘soft landing’ is not yet assured and that inflationary risks remain. The outlook for 2005 has been affected by the further rise in the oil price. In September the consensus of forecastersexpected the oil price to settle at an average level of about $37-38/b on a WTI basis for 2005. The strength of themarket in October led analysts to revise this projection, so that an average price of $42-43/b now underlies mostforecasts. This 10% increase in the consensus oil price assumption has reduced the forecast of world GDP growth by0.1% to 4%. The Euro-zone growth forecast for 2005 has been cut to 1.8% as the recent appreciation of the euro will reduceEuropean exports. The forecast for Japan has been cut by 0.4% to 1.6% following two quarters of disappointinggrowth and signs of weakness in other Asian economies. The US economy is expected to experience a smallerreduction in the growth forecast of 0.1% and should still benefit from the strong economic momentum of 2004. As aresult, the US economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2005, in line with the 20-year average. Higher oil prices willtend to reduce Chinese growth but the main factor for 2005 will be the uncertain impact of a more restrictive monetarypolicy. The growth rate forecast for China is unchanged at 7.6% for 2005. The OPEC Reference Basket in October continued to strive towards all-time highs before easing steadily late in themonth. Concerns over tight winter fuel supplies amid lingering production disruption from the US Gulf Coast and astrike threat — later withdrawn — in Nigeria pushed the Basket price to record levels. The daily Basket price saw itscurrent peak of $46.61/b on 21 October, while the monthly average jumped about $5 over the previous month to arecord high of $45.37/b. The yearly average to October also set a new high of $35.76/b, up $7.66 over the same periodin 2003. By the start of November, rising OPEC production and the resultant stock build helped to dampen prices,causing the month-to-date average to drop a hefty $4.83/b, while the year-to-date increased to $35.95/b. Lower refinery runs as a result of the pre-winter maintenance schedule, particularly in the USA and Europe, havetightened the distillate market around the globe and boosted the distillate crack versus benchmark crudes in October.Lower runs have also caused an earlier than normal stock draw in the US market. However, with the completion ofrefinery turnarounds and a switch to maximum distillate mode as well as the relatively mild weather across the board,the fear of a winter heating oil shortage has eased, resulting in a recent downtrend in distillate product prices. Butsome concern remains about the ability of refiners to sustain operations at near capacity to ensure an ample supply ofheating oil, and it seems that distillate products will drive the market in the next few months. OPEC spot fixtures experienced a robust increase of 15% or 2 mb/d in October to stand at nearly 13.6 mb/d for thefirst time in five years. OPEC’s share of global spot chartering reached 67.5%. On a monthly average, freight rates forcrude oil reached a 30-year high after having increased sharply during October thanks to surging winter crude oildemand and lack of tanker availability. Aframax witnessed a spectacular increase, while freight rates within theMediterranean surged by 192 points to WS392. The product tanker market also remained very tight, especially on theMiddle East eastbound route, where freight rates increased by 154 points to reach a monthly average of WS368 as aresult of surging imports by Japan. The world oil demand estimate for the current year has been slightly adjusted downwards to account for the slowdownin Chinese consumption in the second half of the year as well as an expected lower apparent demand in the FSU due tothe lower pace of economic activity. World oil demand growth estimates for 2005 have once again been adjusted toaccount for the lower rate of global economic growth, with China remaining the wild card for next year. OPEC crude oil production in October, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 30.23 mb/d, an increase of0.08 mb/d over the revised September figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2004 is estimated at 49.91 mb/d, which is1.32 mb/d over the 48.59 mb/d estimated for 2003. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.12 mb/d, anincrease of 1.21 mb/d over the 2004 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.58 mb/d and6.49 mb/d respectively, and expected to rise to 7.32 mb/d and 7.76 mb/d in 2004 and 2005 respectively. A contra-seasonal build of 1.3 mb, or 0.05 mb/d, has been observed in US commercial oil stocks during the period1-29 October 2004. The weekly data up to 12 November further confirms this trend, particularly for crude oil. Thisbrings the total to 963.7 mb which is 7.3 mb or less than 1% below the level registered last year. In Eur-16 (EU plusNorway), total oil stocks showed a slight seasonal draw of 0.17 mb/d to stand at 1,090.6 mb, which is about 2% higherthan that registered last year. At the end of September 2004, total commercial oil stocks in Japan stood at 183.4 mb,0.47 mb/d or about 8% above the August level, but still 10% below the year-ago figure.