2009年5月石油市场月报(2009)MOMR May 2009(2009)

4月份，欧佩克参考价格篮子上涨4.42美元/桶，涨幅10%，至平均50.20美元/桶。物价上涨是由于在经济复苏的繁荣迹象下，市场对经济复苏的信心有所改善。股市波动和美元走软促使投资涌入能源期货，尽管需求持续恶化，但这种改善还是出现了。进入5月份，这一篮子货币继续走强，5月12日达到56.76美元/桶。2009年全球经济增长率进一步下调了0.6个百分点，但下降了1.4%。欧元区陷入了更深的衰退；结果预测被修正为下降1.2个百分点，降幅为4.2%。尽管出现了一些积极的迹象，但预计美国仍将以2.8%的速度下降，较之前的预测下降0.2个百分点。中国和印度的增长预期分别保持在6.5%和5.0%不变。总的来说，目前的积极势头是否可持续，以及各国央行和政府采取的措施是否足以支持经济复苏，仍有待观察。据估计，2008年世界石油需求增长率下降了30万桶/日，与之前的评估基本持平。由于世界经济持续恶化，2009年世界石油需求增长预测已下调20万桶/日，目前为160万桶/日。今年第一季度，全球石油需求增长率创下历史新低，为-240万桶/日。约95%的石油需求下降归因于经合组织（OECD），而非OECD的增长基本保持平稳。据估计，2008年非欧佩克的石油供应下降了20万桶/日，与上一份报告持平。2009年，非欧佩克国家的石油供应预计将增长20万桶/日，这意味着较上一份报告略有下降。调整的原因是公布的项目推迟，实际生产数据公布，降幅大于预期。今年4月，欧佩克原油总产量平均为2810万桶/日，较上月增加20万桶/日。4月下旬，美国汽油库存减少，季节性炼油业务好转导致产量减少，为产品市场人气和4月炼油利润率提供了支撑。然而，由于对中间馏分油的需求持续放缓，且几乎没有高需求迹象，近期成品油市场的积极发展可能短暂，因此无法支撑未来几个月的原油价格。欧佩克4月份的现货供应量较上月增长了2.4%。来自欧佩克维尔的航班略低，但在美国的航班增长了3%。4月份，油轮市场出现了今年以来最疲软的一个月。持续的全球经济危机和欧佩克减产再次成为油轮市场疲软的主要驱动力。尽管4月份海上运输量有所增加，但脏油运费与3月份相比下降了28%。同期，清洁现货运费下降了24%，苏伊士以东市场更为疲软。4月份，美国商业石油库存激增3400万桶，达到10870万桶，以五年平均值计算，导致了105MB的巨大过剩。这座大楼的原油储量接近1500万桶，也就是每天50万桶，创下了自20世纪90年代中期以来的最高纪录，达到37500万桶。欧洲（欧盟15国加挪威）的石油总储量下降了860万桶，但比去年同期增加了3000万桶。日本商业石油库存符合季节性趋势，3月份下降530万桶，但仍保持在177万桶的水平，2008年对欧佩克原油的需求估计平均为3100万桶/日，较上年下降了040万桶/日。2009年，欧佩克原油需求预计平均为2880万桶/日，较上年同期减少220万桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket gained $4.42/b or 10% to average $50.20/b in April. Prices movedhigher on improved sentiment over the economic recovery amid prosperous indicators. Equity marketfluctuations and the weakening US dollar prompted an influx of investment into the energy futures.This improvement came despite the persistent deterioration in demand. The Basket continued tostrengthen into May, reaching $56.76/b on 12 May.Growth for the global economy in 2009 has been revised down further by 0.6 percentage points tonow show a decline of 1.4%. The Euro-zone slipped deeper into recession; as a result the forecast hasbeen revised down by 1.2 pp for a decline of 4.2%. Despite some positive signs, the US is stillexpected to decline at a rate of 2.8%, down 0.2 pp from the previous forecast. Growth expectationsfor China and India remain unchanged at 6.5% and 5.0% respectively. In general, it remains to beseen whether the current positive momentum is sustainable and whether the measures taken bycentral banks and governments will be enough to support an economic recovery.World oil demand growth is estimated to have declined by 0.3 mb/d in 2008, broadlyunchanged from the previous assessment. The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2009 hasbeen revised down by 0.2 mb/d to now stand at 1.6 mb/d, due to the continued deterioration inthe world economy. Global oil demand growth reached a record low at -2.4 mb/d in the firstquarter. Around 95% of the total decline in oil demand is attributed to OECD while non-OECDgrowth has remained roughly flat.Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have declined by 0.2 mb/d in 2008, unchanged from theprevious report. In 2009, non-OPEC supply is now expected to grow 0.2 mb/d, indicating a slightdownward revision from the last report. The adjustment was due to announced projects delays, therelease of actual production data and heavier-than-expected declines. In April, total OPEC crudeproduction averaged 28.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previous month.Gasoline stock draws in the US in the latter part of April and reduced output due to seasonal refineryturnarounds have provided support for sentiment in the product markets and refining margins inApril. However, due to persisting slowing demand for middle distillates and few signs of highergasoline demand, the recent positive developments in the product markets are likely to be short-livedand would therefore not be able to support crude prices over the coming months.OPEC spot fixtures in April rose by 2.4% compared to the previous month. Sailings from OPECwere marginally lower, but arrivals in the US gained 3%. In April, the tanker market witnessed theweakest month so far this year. The continued global economic crisis and OPEC production cutswere once again the dominant drivers behind the weakness in the tanker market. Despite increasedstoring at sea in April, dirty freight rates ended the month with a 28% decline compared to March.Clean spot freight rates declined by 24% over the same period with a much weaker market to the Eastof Suez.US commercial oil stocks surged 34 mb in April to stand at 1,087 mb, resulting in a huge overhangof 105 mb with the five-year average. Crude oil accounted for nearly 15 mb or 0.5 mb/d to the buildand hit a new record of 375 mb, the highest since the mid-1990s. European (EU-15 plus Norway)total oil stocks fell 8.6 mb but were 30 mb above a year earlier. Japan’s commercial oil stocksfollowed their seasonal trend and dropped 5.3 mb in March but remained very comfortable at177 mb.The demand for OPEC crude oil in 2008 is estimated to have averaged 31.0 mb/d, a decline of0.4 mb/d from the previous year. In 2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average28.8 mb/d, a decline of 2.2 mb/d from a year earlier.