2015年1月石油市场月报(2015)MOMR January 2015(2015)

原油价格变动              

去年12月，欧佩克的参考篮子平均为59.46美元/桶，此前下降了16.11美元或21%。按年率计算，2014年该篮子的平均价格为96.29美元/桶，比上一年上涨了9.58美元。去年12月，ICE布伦特原油价格暴跌16.36美元，至63.27美元/桶，年内均价为99.45美元/桶。纽约商品交易所WTI指数下跌16.52美元，至59.29美元/桶，年价格为92.97美元/桶。布伦特WTI价差为3.98美元/桶。             

世界经济              

2014年和2015年世界经济增长率与上个月持平，分别为3.2%和3.6%。经合组织2014年的增长预期不变，为1.8%，但2015年的预测已从2.1%修订为2.2%。2015年，中国和印度的预测值保持不变，分别为7.2%和5.8%。              

世界石油需求              

据估计，2014年全球石油需求增长了95万桶/日，比上个月的平均水平提高了20吨/日。此次调整主要反映了经合组织（OECD）美国和中国的石油需求数据好于预期。2015年，世界石油需求预计将增加115万桶/日，此前，由于经合组织（OECD）美国和其他亚洲国家对石油需求的预期，世界石油需求将上调30 tb/d d。              

世界石油供应              

据估计，2014年非欧佩克石油供应量增长了198万桶/日，较上一份报告的260吨/日进行了年度修正，原因是今年年底的增长率高于预期。2015年，非欧佩克石油供应预计将增长128万桶/日，较上一份报告向下修正了80吨/日。预计2015年欧佩克天然气和非常规液体的平均供应量为603万桶/日，高于2014年的583万桶/日。根据第二来源，去年12月，欧佩克原油产量平均为320万桶/日，比上个月增加了14万桶/日。              

产品市场和炼油业务              

由于该地区汽油供应过剩，汽油和中间馏分油裂缝的减少影响了利润率，大西洋盆地的产品市场在12月份走弱。由于冬季季节性需求和桶顶和桶底的积极表现抵消了蒸馏水供应的增加，亚洲市场仅经历了小幅下跌。              

油轮市场              

脏油轮的运价在12月份涨跌不一。超大型油轮继续恢复自2014年第四季度初以来的涨幅，较上个月增长16%。超大型油轮运价的提高是由于活跃的市场和亚洲高吨位需求的结果。苏伊士型油轮和阿芙拉型油轮的表现均为负面，分别较上月平均下降9%和29%。欧佩克的现货供应量较上月平均下降9.2%，至1163万桶/日。              

股票变动              

经合组织（OECD）11月份商业石油库存下降约1000万桶，至27100万桶。在这个水平上，库存比过去五年的平均水平高出2030万件。原油显示盈余3820万桶，而产品库存仍低于五年平均水平1790万桶。就远期覆盖天数而言，经合组织商业股为58.7天，比五年平均水平高出一天。              

供需平衡              

据估计，2014年欧佩克原油需求量为2910万桶/日，较上一份报告修正了20万桶/日。2015年，欧佩克原油需求量预计为2880万桶/日，下调后为10万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $59.46/b in December, following a decline of$16.11 or 21%. In annual terms, the Basket averaged $96.29/b in 2014, representing adecline of $9.58 from the previous year. ICE Brent in December plunged $16.36 to stand at$63.27/b, averaging $99.45/b for the year. Nymex WTI lost $16.52 to stand at $59.29/b inDecember, for a yearly value of $92.97/b. The Brent-WTI spread stood at $3.98/b. 

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2014 and 2015 remains unchanged from the previousmonth at 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The OECD growth estimate is unchanged at1.8% for 2014, but the 2015 forecast has been revised to 2.2% from 2.1%. Theforecasts for China and India remain unchanged at 7.2% and 5.8% in 2015,respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand is estimated to have grown by 0.95 mb/d in 2014, representing anupward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. The adjustment mainly reflectsbetter-than-expected oil demand data from OECD America and China. In 2015, worldoil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, following an upward revision of 30 tb/ddue to expectations of higher oil requirements in OECD America and Other Asia. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have grown by 1.98 mb/d in 2014, following anupward revision of 260 tb/d from the previous report, driven by higher than expectedgrowth seen at the end of the year. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to growby 1.28 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 80 tb/d from the previous report.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to average 6.03 mb/d in 2015,up from 5.83 mb/d in 2014. In December, OPEC crude oil production averaged30.20 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over theprevious month. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in December as margins were affectedby the drop in the gasoline and middle distillates cracks amid an oversupply of gasolinein the region. The Asian market experienced only a slight drop as increased distillatesupplies were offset by winter seasonal demand and the positive performance at thetop and bottom of the barrel. 

Tanker Market 

Freight rates for dirty tankers saw mixed movements in December. VLCCs continued torealise the gains seen since the beginning of 4Q14, increasing by 16% from the monthbefore. The improvements seen in VLCC freight rates came as a result of an activemarket and high Asian tonnage demand. Both Suezmax and Aframax saw a negativeperformance, declining by 9% and 29%, respectively, on average from a month earlier.OPEC spot fixtures dropped by 9.2% from the previous month to average 11.63 mb/d. 

Stock Movements

 OECD commercial oil stocks fell in November by around 10 mb to stand at 2,710 mb. Atthis level, inventories were 20.3 mb higher than the last five-year average. Crudeindicated a surplus of 38.2 mb, while product stocks remained 17.9 mb below thefive-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at58.7 days, one day above the five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.1 mb/d in 2014, representing a revision of0.2 mb/d from the last report. In 2015, required OPEC crude is projected at 28.8 mb/d,following a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d.