2016年6月石油市场月报(2016)MOMR June 2016(2016)

原油价格变动

5月份，欧佩克的参考篮子平均为43.21美元/桶，较上月上涨5.35美元。ICE布伦特原油期货价格上涨4.31美元，至47.65美元/桶，Nymex WTI原油期货价格上涨5.67美元，至46.80美元/桶。5月份，ICE布伦特Nymex WTI原油期货价差从上月的2.21美元/桶大幅收窄至85美元/桶。

世界经济

今年世界经济增长率预计为3.1%，此前一年预计为2.9%，与上月持平。经合组织2016年的增长率仍为1.9%，略低于2015年的2.0%。主要新兴经济体的预测保持不变。今年，中国和印度继续以6.5%和7.5%的水平扩张。不过，据预测，巴西和俄罗斯今年仍将陷入衰退，分别萎缩3.4%和1.1%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求增长率与上一次报告的120万桶/日持平，平均为9418万桶/日。其他亚洲国家（以印度为首）预计将是2016年石油需求增长的主要贡献者。与2015年类似，交通燃料在健康的汽车销售和低油价环境的支持下，预计将提供预期增长的大部分。2015年的增长预期也保持不变，为154万桶/日，平均为9298万桶/日。

世界石油供应

2016年非欧佩克国家石油供应预测保持不变，预计将收缩0.74百万桶/日，平均为56.40百万桶/日。加拿大、巴西和哥伦比亚的下调基本抵消了美国、英国、俄罗斯和阿塞拜疆的上调。2015年非欧佩克供应增长保持在147万桶/日不变。欧佩克天然气和非常规油气预计今年将增加16万桶/日，达到平均629万桶/日。二级资料显示，今年欧佩克原油产量下降了10万桶/日，平均为32.36万桶/日。

产品市场和炼油业务

轻馏分油和中馏分油的高库存，加上春季维护季节即将结束，抵消了加拿大和法国事件的潜在影响。这导致大西洋盆地的边缘降低，尽管该地区的汽油需求更强。与此同时，在亚洲，炼油厂利润率略有回升，原因是在炼油厂维护高峰期，该地区汽油和汽油需求强劲。

油轮市场

5月份脏油轮市场的人气普遍疲软。超大型油轮和苏伊士型油轮现货运价下跌，原因是轻吨位需求和油轮可用性增加。不过，阿芙拉型油轮的即期运价有所提高。由于苏伊士以西的低运价报告，清洁油轮运价平均下降。5月份，全球租船活动下降，中东和欧佩克（OPEC）的出航量逐月下降。

股票变动

经合组织（OECD）4月份商业石油库存小幅上升，至30460亿桶。在这一水平上，oeccommercial石油库存比最近五年的平均水平高出约338mb，crudeindication的盈余较低，为194mb，产品基本持平于144mb。就远期覆盖日而言，经合组织商业股为66.4天，比五年期平均水平高出约7.1天。

供需平衡

预计2016年欧佩克原油需求为3150万桶/日，与上次报告持平，比去年增加180万桶/日。2015年，欧佩克原油需求量也没有变化，平均为2970万桶/日，较上年下降了10万桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $43.21/b in May, representing a gain of $5.35 overthe previous month. ICE Brent ended up $4.31 at $47.65/b, while Nymex WTI rose $5.67to $46.80/b. The ICE Brent-Nymex WTI spread narrowed significantly to 85/b in May from$2.21/b the month before. 

World Economy 

World economic growth is forecast at 3.1% for this year, after estimated growth of 2.9% theyear before, both unchanged from the previous month. OECD growth in 2016 remains at1.9%, slightly below the 2.0% seen in 2015. The forecast for the major emergingeconomies remains unchanged. China and India continue to expand this year at aconsiderable level of 6.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Brazil and Russia, however, areforecast to remain in recession this year, contracting by 3.4% and 1.1%, respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand growth for 2016 remains unchanged from the previous report at1.20 mb/d to average 94.18 mb/d. Other Asia, led by India, is anticipated to be the maincontributor to oil demand growth in 2016. Similar to 2015, transportation fuels, supportedby healthy vehicle sales and the low oil price environment, are projected to provide the bulkof expected growth. The 2015 growth estimate was also left unchanged at 1.54 mb/d toaverage 92.98 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

The forecast for non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 remains unchanged, with a contraction of0.74 mb/d expected to average 56.40 mb/d. The downward revisions in Canada, Brazil andColombia broadly offset upward revisions in the US, UK, Russia and Azerbaijan. NonOPECsupply growth in 2015 was left unchanged at 1.47 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionalsare expected to increase by 0.16 mb/d to average 6.29 mb/d this year. InMay, secondary sources show OPEC crude oil production decreased by 0.1 mb/d toaverage 32.36 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

The high level of inventories in light and middle distillates, along with the approaching endof the spring maintenance season, offset the potential impact from events in Canada andFrance. This caused margins to edge lower in the Atlantic Basin, despite stronger gasolinedemand in the region. Meanwhile, in Asia, refinery margins showed a slight recovery onthe back of stronger regional gasoline and gasoil demand amid a peak in refinerymaintenance. 

Tanker Market 

Sentiment in the dirty tanker market was generally weak in May. VLCC and Suezmax spotfreight rates declined on the back of light tonnage demand and increased tankeravailability. However, Aframax spot freight rates improved. Clean tanker freight ratesdeclined on average, as a result of low freight rates reported for West of Suez. In May,global chartering activities dropped and sailings from the Middle East, and OPEC morebroadly, were lower month-on-month. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose slightly in April to stand at 3,046 mb. At this level, OECDcommercial oil stocks are around 338 mb above the latest five-year average, with crudeindicating a lower surplus of 194 mb and products broadly flat at 144 mb. In terms of daysof forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 66.4 days, some 7.1 days higher thanthe five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is projected at 31.5 mb/d, unchanged from the last reportand 1.8 mb/d higher than last year. For 2015, demand for OPEC crude is also unchanged,averaging 29.7 mb/d, which represents a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year.